NFL Reactions: Wild-Card Weekend

In the first couple years after the NFL added a seventh playoff team, many people complained. The assumption was that  the quality of playoff football would be compromised. And yes, some of the No. 7 seeds have had bad performances. But that can be said for any level of seed in any given playoff year. With the Seahawks and Dolphins playing very well in the first round of this year's playoffs, I think we should put to rest the idea that seven teams don't belong.

Wild-Card Weekend Reactions

• The matchup between the Chargers and the Jaguars was one of the oddest playoff games I've ever seen. I'm being honest when I say that the comeback wasn't completely surprising. If a team is going to fall behind due to a slew of turnovers, it's best that it happens early in the game. I've talked all year about the battle between the ears. Despite what coaches say and rational minds understand, once a team subconsciously feels they've won, it's very difficult to regain the same competitive edge. On the other hand, in a playoff situation,  the team that's trailing goes in a desperation mode. It can be a dangerous combination, as it was for the Chargers.
• For those who followed me throughout the week leading up to the game, I talked about the fact that the Chargers would be unable to run the ball successfully against the Jaguars and that their only path to success would come through the air. However, the Chargers' coaching staff succumbed to what's called the conventional wisdom. It says that with a big lead, you run the ball and control the clock. That advice worked great decades ago, and it still works in certain circumstances, but definitely not here. The Chargers consistently found themselves in second and long after running Austin Ekeler up the middle to no avail.  When they finally decided to take a play-action shot on first down, it was near the end of the game and Justin Herbert was sacked.
• I also had significant issues with the Chargers defense. In the first half, they were sitting on every short and intermediate route the Jaguars ran. Once they had a big lead, they backed off and allowed easy completions the rest of the evening. It appeared that they never thought about making an adjustment to go with what was working in the first half.
• And it's also notable how careless Los Angeles was with their second half timeouts. Especially the one that came on a foolish challenge. I kept saying that they were going to need those timeouts. and once Jacksonville had the ball late in the game, they were able to drain the clock and set up the winning field goal. Guess who could have used those timeouts?
• Thinking long-term, the silver lining that I see would be if the Chargers decide to find a different coach, at least for the passing game. Joe Lombardi has one of the strongest-armed quarterbacks in the league in Justin Herbert. Yet, Herbert has one of the lowest yards per attempt in the entire league. And it's not just an offensive line issue- It's a philosophical one. I have no idea what they'll do, but if they could get Sean Payton, the ceiling for Herbert and the offense would be incredible.
• Coach Doug Pederson won a Super Bowl in Philadelphia. and shortly after, he was let go. Many fans and analysts tried to call him a fraud. I hope they've backed off on that stance. He's done a great job all year with play design. He's also been a very calming influence on his young offense. In a game in which they easily could have folded, he maintained an excellent blend between the run and the pass given the circumstances (yes, I know they threw more than twice the amount of times they ran the ball). They never played as if they were desperate. They played as if they knew they could win this game, which is exactly what they did.
• We can talk about how the beginning of the game went for Trevor Lawrence, but why bother?  He maintained his composure and he played an excellent second half. This game was a bit representative of his entire season. During the year, he had two hot streaks along with a few stretches in which he struggled. This is the life of a young quarterback.  This is where I'll stop, as I'll wait until the end of Lawrence's season to talk about what we might expect in 2023. 
• The Seahawks gave us a great first half of playoff football.  After falling behind by 10 points in the first quarter, it looked like we were set for a San Francisco blowout. Seattle had other ideas. Despite facing the vaunted 49ers defense, they were successful running a balanced attack. They actually had 20 rushing attempts to just 10 passes. Kenneth Walker led the charge by going over 50 yards with a touchdown. DK Metcalf had a 50% target share, catching a 50-yard touchdown. In addition, Geno Smith was only sacked a single time.
• I felt as if there were two turning points in the second half. one was obvious. the other- not as much. The first one was when Johnathan Abram decided to twist Deebo Samuel's leg after a tackle. No penalty was called. but Samuel was furious, and had to leave the field briefly as the action clearly caused him pain. I saw that as a wake up call for San Francisco.  The last thing that Seattle should have wanted to do was to get the 49ers angry and galvanized over something the Seahawks could have controlled. with the 49ers up 23-17 in the middle of the third quarter, the obvious turning point occurred. Seattle had driven almost the length of the field and were on the verge of scoring at least a field goal. On third-and-14, Smith was sacked and fumbled the ball away to the 49ers. The next time Seattle scored was when they were down 24 points with less than two minutes remaining in the 4th quarter. 
• Quickly looking ahead to next year, it would seem obvious that Smith will be Seattle's starting quarterback. However, his contract with the team expired. It's possible that after his career year, there'll be a significant market for his services. But with the franchise tag available to Seattle, they appear to have the leverage to bring him back. He'll be an interesting case in fantasy drafts. The season he had cannot be ignored. But the fact he threw just a single touchdown pass in three of his last four games while averaging 212 yards during that span will make many wonder if he was already moving closer to his career norms. I'll view him as a borderline starter in 12-team leagues, but I'm not overly interested in targeting him as a primary weekly starter. I always say- never pay for the career year!
• In terms of the 49ers, it took a while, but they ended up performing exactly as I expected. I couldn't wait to see this offense with all of their main playmakers healthy. A hot start led to a second quarter lull. But they erupted in the second half. The main weapons in this offense are Christian McCaffrey and Samuel. They are the players that can be deployed in many different ways. They can be deployed to expose mismatches whether that be as runners or receivers.  As good as George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk are, they are complimentary pieces in this offense. Of course, each of those players are stars in their own right. and either can be dominant if given the opportunity. It will be very enjoyable to watch this offense as long as they last in the playoffs.
• When I was previewing the Buffalo Bills in their matchup against Miami, I did have concerns about Josh Allen. Yes, he's been an excellent fantasy quarterback this year. But he's been very careless with the ball for much of the year. That didn't change in this matchup, as he threw a pair of interceptions while fumbling three times (fortunately, he lost just one of those). I fully expect opponents to continue pressuring Allen As long as he's alive in the playoffs. Obviously, he's been able to bail out the Bills more often than not, but the margin for error in the playoffs is so much smaller that turnovers could easily derail Buffalo's season.
• It was odd to see Stefon Diggs post almost 100 yards in the first half, but end the game with just 114 yards. They definitely needed firepower in the second half, and although other players came through, it's likely they're going to need Diggs to be a big factor if they hope on advancing to the Super Bowl.
• The Dolphins utilized the defensive game plan that I anticipated. Knowing they were clearly outmatched, they were going to have to bring as much pressure as possible. Miami has four outstanding pass rushers in their front seven, so turning them loose was always going to be the best course of action. Certainly, that would result in allowing some big plays. But the upside would be the pressure leading Allen into making mistakes. That definitely worked.
• However, Mike McDaniel's offensive game plan was one I struggled with. He consistently had Skylar Thompson throwing the ball downfield. Although there were drops that kept Thompson from having a better day, I had expected them to use Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle on jet sweeps and screens set up through motion. They did go to that very late in the game. but I thought that was an advantage they may have considered using for the entire contest. Ultimately, it's difficult to complain. Miami almost accomplished the unthinkable. They went into Buffalo and gave them all they could handle.
• The most interesting offseason point for Miami will be their quarterback situation. I hope that Tua Tagovailoa is healthy and not at risk of any long-term complications from the concussions he suffered. His health is exponentially more important than football. But if he is the opening day starter, it'll be important that he builds on some of the successes that he had earlier in the season. He's still hypersensitive to pressure. He's much better throwing the ball against zone coverage than man coverage. Some of this can simply be part of his growth arc as a young quarterback. But these also seem like concerns that many analysts had about him as he came into the league. 
• Of all the high-scoring games this weekend, the one that was least surprising was the Giants at the Vikings. As always, Brian Daboll  crafted a game plan to attack the weaknesses of the opponent. With Minnesota having issues covering receivers, Isaiah Hodgins and Darius Slayton both had big games. In addition, Daniel Jones was frequently used as a runner, and he was easily the leading rusher on the team. With Minnesota's weaknesses and defending running backs as receivers, Saquon Barkley went over 100 scrimmage yards by being used almost equally as a runner and receiver.
• On defense, New York paid extra attention to Justin Jefferson and backed off on their typical use of blitzes. The defense encouraged Kirk Cousins to throw to his ancillary weapons. That paid off extremely well.
• The Giants will have quite the hurdle next week as they'll face the Eagles. Their receivers will likely be significantly outmatched and their defense will face all they can handle. But, we can count on Daboll having the best possible game plan.
• The only Minnesota player who had a big game was T.J. Hockenson, who led the team with 11 targets, 10 receptions and 129 yards. If the offense stays intact next year, Hockenson  will likely be a top-five tight end in fantasy drafts. His usage and production was outstanding after he was traded to Minnesota during the season.
• Statistically, Kirk Cousins was fine, as he didn't throw an interception and completed over 75 percent of his passes. He also threw for 273 yards and two touchdowns. Cousins will be a free agent this offseason. I wouldn't be surprised if the Vikings parted ways with him. but unless they have a reasonable option to replace him, they may need to do whatever possible to retain him. I'll value him as a fantasy backup in 12 team leagues, as his implosion games make him difficult to trust for consistency.
• When the Vikings needed to drive down the field in the last few minutes of the game, Justin Jefferson wasn't targeted. Regardless of the way the defense was playing, it seemed inexcusable to not give Jefferson a chance with the season on the line. On the last offensive play of the game, Cousins threw the ball short of the sticks, giving them little chance to succeed. 
• Dalvin Cook had a cake matchup but did little with it. His 15 carries and six receptions resulted in just 70 yards. Unless Cook gets a significant discount in drafts, he appeared to be a player in decline. Yes, he compiled very good numbers over the course of the season, but I would be surprised if he didn't take another step backwards next year. If he's getting drafted in the top-20 players, I'll likely avoid him in drafts.
• What a wild Sunday night game we had! It was a typical AFC North game with physical football. Although things may have gone in any direction had Tyler Huntley not fumbled the ball leading to a Sam Hubbard return touchdown, that will always be the memorable play of this game. Had the Ravens run the ball without the odd two-yard attempted leap, there's a good chance they go into the stretch run of the game with a seven-point lead. But the playoff gods smiled on the Bengals and they advance to play the Bills.
• J.K. Dobbins was brilliant. Given only 18 touches, he posted over 100 scrimmage yards and found the end zone. He should be fully healthy in 2023. But ranking him for fantasy will be tricky. The Baltimore coaching staff has limited his work since his rookie year in 2020. He rarely gets more than 15 carries per game. He's also lightly used in the passing game. In addition, he shares the goal-line work. Based on talent, he'd be a top-15 pick in drafts. But based on usage, he's more of a top-30 selection. We'll see where his ADP falls to determine if he'll be a value play.
• The Bengals didn't have their best offensive game. But that's what happens when you play a divisional opponent with great coaching and a strong defense. It's all about winning. Cincinnati did what was needed to survive and advance. The game plan was primarily was getting the ball to Ja'Marr Chase. Other than his two games against the NFC South this year, he hasn't had a signature game all year. But even when defenses put a shell over the top to limit the big plays, Chase can win anywhere on the field, and he showed that against the Ravens. Expect more of the same type of coverage next week against the Bills.