NFL Week 11 Picks, Predictions, Props and Best Bets for Every Game

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

It's been a frustrating last month or so. 22-24 over the last three weeks with just a bunch of bad-luck scenarios that immediately come to my mind when reviewing my process. It obviously could be worse, but I think I'm too comfortable riding with the favorites, and predictably it hasn't resulted in a ton of success. I'm going to try and force myself to be a bit more aggressive with my calls this go-around, if only to try and shake things up.

Below you'll find my picks against the spread and on the totals for each game on the Week 11 NFL slate. For more NFL betting content here at RotoWire, check out our NFL picks series with several articles dropping each week. 

NFL Week 11 Betting Picks For Each Game

NFL Week 11 Byes

• Cardinals
• Panthers
• Giants
• Buccaneers

NFL Week 11 Predictions

Week 10 Record ATS: 6-8
Week 10 Record on Totals: 5-9

Season Record ATS: 82-70-2
Season Record on Totals: 77-75

In this article, we also take a look at NFL Week 11 odds and our predictions for each NFL game.

Commanders vs. Eagles

I've been correctly fading the Commanders against every tough matchup they've faced this year, but I think at minimum there's some backdoor potential here. The Eagles have been hot lately, but head coach Nick Sirianni doesn't seem like someone who gets his team seriously ready to play -- especially in big games like this one. There's a bit of "proving we belong" narrative that I'm spinning with the Commanders, but I do think Washington's offense can keep pace with Saquon Barkley and the Eagles drive for drive. Washington probably won't win, but we will take that extra half point in this scenario.

Spread Pick: Commanders +3.5
Total Pick: Over 48.5

Packers vs. Bears

I do think firing offensive coordinator Shane Waldron was the right move -- it literally can't make things worse -- but I'm not convinced Chicago's offensive line can hold up. As a Packers fan, I'm absolutely nervous for this one because Green Bay typically plays down to its opposition. There's part of me that hopes the players care about this rivalry as much as the fans do and therefore will avoid the mental mistakes that have plagued the Packers in recent weeks, but that does feel like wishful thinking at this point. The one thing I'm confident about -- I don't understand why the total is so low. We know the Packers will score plenty of points, and I feel relatively certain the Bears will at least get three scores as well.

Spread Pick: Packers -5.5
Total Pick: Over 40.5

Jaguars vs. Lions

The Lions beat up bad teams, and with Mac Jones under center that's where Jacksonville stands. There isn't any more analysis needed than that.

Spread Pick: Lions -13
Total Pick: Under 47

Raiders vs. Dolphins

I want nothing to do with this game. Miami is the better team, and demonstrably so. The Raiders have no culture and no direction. And yet, if you told me the Dolphins win on a last-second field goal I'd just shrug my shoulders and agree. These two teams are just quintessential displays of lack of seriousness. Assuming one will perform to the level of expectation is just a fool's errand.

Spread Pick: Dolphins -7.5
Total Pick: Over 44

Rams vs. Patriots

I wasn't surprised the Patriots won last week against the Bears. I don't think New England is particularly good, but they know who they are at least. I'd be a little surprised if they can actually beat a relatively good team, and "relatively" is doing a lot of heavy lifting in this sentence given Los Angeles' shocking loss to the Dolphins on Monday. The travel from the West Coast to the East Coast matters to me, but it shouldn't matter especially when there's such a talent disparity.

Spread Pick: Rams -5
Total Pick: Under 43.5

Browns vs. Saints

I'm not really sure what's going on with the line. The Saints pulled off a surprising win over the Falcons, but that's an NFC South thing. The Browns are healthier, have Nick Chubb back, actually have an adult starting at quarterback, and more importantly don't have Marquez Valdes-Scantling as the team's top wide receiver. Like, what are we doing here?

Spread Pick: Browns +1
Total Pick: Over 44.5

Ravens vs. Steelers

I don't know where I lean here. I felt really confident the Steelers would have a sterling record in the first half of the season. It was a cupcake schedule, and one that gets infinitely more difficult over the final eight games with so many AFC North battles mixed in. Pittsburgh isn't a pushover, and the Ravens seem incapable of posing any sort of threat defensively. Maybe I have zero right to be nervous. After all, Baltimore annihilated the Broncos in a similar setup, but whereas I have issues with Sean Payton's coaching style, Mike Tomlin is the exact opposite in every positive way imaginable. I think this is going to be a slobberknocker of sorts, and one that the Ravens will win, but barely.

Spread Pick: Ravens -3
Total Pick: Under 48

Vikings vs. Titans

Sam Darnold has turned back into a pumpkin, but come on, it's the Titans. I'm relatively certain they're the worst team in the league, and more importantly for this matchup, defensive coordinator Brian Flores should flummox Will Levis. This isn't close in my mind.

Spread Pick: Vikings -6
Total Pick: Under 39.5

Colts vs. Jets

The switch back to Anthony Richardson was the right one from a franchise perspective. That's not going to help the team win this week, or win much more this season for that matter. The Colts simply lack a lot of talent, and for whatever the reason, they don't lean into the one good thing they have -- Jonathan Taylor -- nearly as much as they should.

I haven't checked the exact numbers, but the team I've gotten wrong the most has to be the Jets, or at the very least they are near the top. Maybe I'm falling for the same trap that I have for much of the season, but I think the Jets are just outright better. They might goof away this game like they always seem to do, but Richardson starting definitely improves New York's chances for the better.

Spread Pick: Jets -3.5
Total Pick: Over 43.5

Falcons vs. Broncos

I thought we were past this stage for Atlanta. Losing to the Seahawks in Week 7 was a reflection of both teams being relatively same in terms of coaching and talent. But losing to this version of New Orleans? That's a whole different issue.

Maybe it was just a one-game fluke, but I'd argue the Falcons have a bunch of "fluke" weeks this season already. At what point does a cumulation of those things matter? The Broncos have an excellent defense -- specifically the secondary -- and they just match up well against Atlanta in that regard.

Spread Pick: Broncos -2.5
Total Pick: Under 44

Seahawks vs. 49ers

This was one of my philosophy changes that I talked about at the top. San Francisco is a better team, but NFC West games get weird and the Seahawks can be gamey from a backdoor cover perspective. I'll probably be wrong, but I'd rather take a few more chances on these types of games and hopefully push .500 on these decisions over the course of the year, rather than whatever I was doing before.

Spread Pick: Seahawks +6.5
Total Pick: Over 48

Chiefs vs. Bills

I don't want to be too nihilistic, but the Chiefs just feel inevitable. They have a grating offensive style. They seem to be the beneficiary of every "bad" officiating call. They benefit from every good-luck outcome. They just win.

Yes, it's the regular season and the Bills have been better in this type of matchup since the stakes are so low. It just feels different this year, though. I hope I'm wrong. The NFL is more fun when there's parity. But it just seems like a formality that Kansas City will be one of the Super Bowl participants this year. In my mind, the Lions feel equally inevitable, but at the very least Detroit is a bit more engaging and enjoyable to watch. Either way, give me Patrick Mahomes as an underdog. That usually never fails.

Spread Pick: Chiefs +2
Total Pick: Over 46

Bengals vs. Chargers

I'm really curious how this game will go. At the beginning of the year, I would have assumed this would be an easy win for the Bengals. Early-season struggles aside, Cincinnati is at least holding up its end of the bargain offensively, and if it comes to a shootout, the Chargers just don't have the horses to keep up. This is a clash of philosophies though, as it's possible (likely remote) that Los Angeles is able to sit on the ball just enough so that Ja'Marr Chase and Joe Burrow can't maintain their explosiveness. I'm betting against that, but like I said, I'll be really curious to see if this Jim Harbaugh-coached team can continue to outperform its baseline.

Spread Pick: Bengals +1.5
Total Pick: Over 47

Texans vs. Cowboys

I couldn't have been more wrong about Cooper Rush in terms of his capability as a backup quarterback. I think Joe Mixon alone might outscore this entire Dallas offense.

Spread Pick: Texans -7.5
Total Pick: Under 42

NFL Week 11 Best Bets

Next, we take a look at our favorite Week 11 NFL best bets at the best NFL betting sites. We went 6-4 in best bets last week and could have had a better day if not for the Falcons no-showing against the Saints. While I'm obligated to pick against the spread above, the best bets section highlights my favorite leans and also tries to take advantage of a few of the parlay props offered as of this writing.

BetMGM Best Bets for NFL Week 11

BetMGM offers some of the best odds available for Week 11. If you're not signed up at BetMGM yet, new players at BetMGM can use the BetMGM bonus code ROTOBONUS for a risk-free bet worth up to $1,000. Here are our NFL best bets for Week 11 at BetMGM.

• CHI/GB three-leg SGP (+140) - Packers moneyline, Bears under 21.5 points and Tucker Kraft 25+ receiving yards
• Three-leg seven-point teaser (+120) - MIN/TEN under 46.5, Texans -0.5 and ATL/DEN under 51

Caesars Sportsbook Best Bets for NFL Week 11

Caesars Sportsbook also has great betting odds for NFL Week 11. If you are not registered yet, use the Caesars Sportsbook promo code ROTOFULL for a first bet on Caesars.

• A.J. Brown and Terry McLaurin both over 69.5 receiving yards (Boosted +250)
• Texans -7.5 (-105)

DraftKings Best Bets for NFL Week 11

DraftKings Sportsbook has special offers for new users just in time for Week 11 of the NFL season. here are our best picks available at DraftKings Sportsbook this week.

• Lions -13 (-112)
• Titans first drive result - Punt (-145)

FanDuel Best Bets for NFL Week 11

One of the most popular sportsbooks available is FanDuel Sportsbook. Let's take a look at our favorite betting picks with FanDuel odds.

• Packers -5.5 (-105)
• Baker Mayfield most passing yards in season (+2800)
• Cameron Ward No. 1 overall pick (+750)
• Two-leg parlay (+740) - Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions respective conference winners

BetRivers Best Bets for NFL Week 11

BetRivers is an up-and-coming and underrated sportsbook, and they are offering up to $500 in second-chance bets with the BetRivers bonus code. Bettors can use those for these picks on NFL Week 11.

• Bengals +1.5 (-110)

Fanatics Sportsbook Best Bets for NFL Week 11

Fanatics Sportsbook is ringing in its first full NFL season. You can get in on the action at Fanatics by using the Fanatics Sportsbook promo for up to $1,000 in bonus bets over the first 10 days that your account is active. Here are our favorite picks this week using odds at Fanatics Sportsbook.

• Four-leg moneyline parlay (+194) - Lions, Rams, Vikings and Texans all win

Look ahead at the NFL Week 12 odds as well, if you're interested in getting ahead of the line movement.