This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
The Under Bet Has Been a Big Winner in 2023
Since Week 2 action when the Over went 13-3 for 81% winning bets, the Under had not gone less than 50% in any week until last week when the Over went 8-5 for 62% winning tickets. However, in prime-time games, the Under continued its meteoric win percentage going 3-0 Under marking the third consecutive week that all three prime games played Under their respective totals. For the season, the Under is 25-7 for 78% winning bets in prime time spots, which is the highest win percentage since the 2012 season when the Under went 28-14 for 67% in these prime time games.
There are 16 prime-time games remaining on the 2023 NFL schedule. The Over would have to go 9-7 to equal the 2012 full-season record for the highest win percentage. The average total in Week 10 was just 40.33 points and is currently up about 10% to an average of 44.67 points in Week 11 action.
Keep in mind two of the best teams in the NFL, the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles were on their BYE week. The other two teams on the BYE were the LA Rams and the Miami Dolphins. The Chiefs and Dolphins have had an average total of 48.60 and 48.19 ranking first and second highest in the NFL this season. The Eagles rank fifth averaging a 46.40-point total so, those teams account for the significant increase in the average total in week 11 action. A huge mistake to avoid is presuming that the Over is going dominate in Week 11 action simply because of the historical extreme produced by the Unders to date.
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Situational Trends and Angles for Week 11
· The Minnesota Vikings have won five consecutive games SU and ATS since losing at home to the Kansas City Chiefs 27-20 in Week 5.
· Over the last three games, the Dallas Cowboys lead the NFL scoring 38.33 PPG.
· For the season, the Miami Dolphins lead the NFL in scoring at 31.67 PPG.
· The NY Giants are dead last in the NFL averaging just 11.80 PPG.
· Road favorites that have averaged 11 or fewer yards-per-point (extremely efficient offense) over their last three games, the Over has gone 17-5 for 77% winning bets. Bet the Over in the Chargers vs Packers game currently at 44 points as offered at Bet ESPN.
· Road underdogs of 3.5 to 7.5 points and with a total of 45 or more points that have allowed a horrid 12 or fewer yards-per-points over their previous three games have gone to a 19-10-2 ATS record for 66% winning bets. Bet on the Arizona Cardinals get five points when they travel to Houston to take on the Texans as offered at DraftKings.
· The Vikings are 20-11-1 Under in their last 32 prime-time games.
· The Broncos are 23-14-1 Under their last 38 prime-time games.
· The Chiefs are 28-17 Over in their last 45 prime-time games.
· The Eagles are 10-6-1 Over in their last 17 road prime-time games.
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The NFL Best Bet for Week 11
I have an upset alert that most fans will be shocked if it occurs in Week 11 action. The Houston Texans are coming off a terrific 30-27 road win over the Cincinnati Bengals priced as a 5.5-point underdog. I was on the Texans last week as an 8-unit graded premium best bet and they did not disappoint. However, they are in a current situation that at first glance they ought to win quite easily and cover the modest 5-point favorite spread when they face the Arizona Cardinals.
The Cardinals rank 25th scoring an average of 17.6 PPG and 27th with a 0.289 points-per-play ratio on the season. The Texans rank 10th in scoring offense at 24.1 PPG and 12th with a 0.37 points-per-play ratio on the season. Opponents have run the ball far more often when facing the Cardinals knowing they rank 28thallowing 134.2 RYPG. However, the Texans do not have a strong ground game ranking 25th averaging 98.2 RYPG, and 30th averaging just 3.6 YPR on the season. The Cardinal's defense can play well on first downs against the run and force the Texans into second and third-and-long situations.
A Highly Profitable NFL Betting Algorithm
The following betting algorithm has produced a highly profitable 28-16-2 ATS record for 64% winners over the past 25 seasons. The requirements are:
- Bet on underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points.
- The game is taking place from Week 9 on to the end of the regular season.
- Our dog is facing a foe has a winning record in the current season.
- That foe is coming off an upset win.
- That foe won six or fewer games in their previous season.
If we drill down a bit further in the database and include games that had a posted total of 42.5 or more points has earned a highly profitable 16-7-2 ATS for 70% winning bets over the past 25 seasons.
Last, drilling down deeper to include road teams produces a remarkably profitable 20-5 SU record and a 21-14 ATS mark for 84% winning bets including a 15-9-1 Under mark for 63% winning bets.
The Live Betting Strategy for the NFL Best Bet
There have been 782 lead changes through the first ten weeks of the regular season. The Cardinals and Texans rank 12th in the NFL with a total of 26 lead changes so expect a higher-than-average scoring volatility in this game. In five of Arizona's 10 games, the opponent scored first. Over the past three seasons, the Cardinals are 5-8 ATS when the opponent scored first against the closing number but lost to that spread by an average of 2.5 PPG. The live line would make the Cardinals an estimated 9 to 9.5-point underdog if the Texans score a TD first and about a 7.5-point underdog if the Texans score first with a field goal.
The Cardinals are 5-2 ATS in games in which they scored a touchdown first over the past three seasons, but ended up covering the spread by an average of only 1.14 PPG. This implies that even if the Cardinals get out of the scoreboard first via a TD, they have been prone to giving up that lead, which then offers a great betting opportunity using the live in-game betting price.
My plan is to bet 80% of my 8-Unit premium bet amount on the Cardinals plus the 5 points and then if the Texans score first add the remaining 20% betting amount as prescribed above.
NFL Week 11 Best Bet
- Arizona Cardinals +5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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