This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Betting Picks, Trends and Predictions for Week 14
The biggest game on the Week 13 NFL card featured the two best teams in the NFC and after the Philadelphia Eagles (10-2 SU, 7-3-2 ATS), 7-5 Over-Under) took a 6-0 lead of a pair of field goals by Jake Elliott, Brock Purdy and the 49ers scored on six consecutive drives and went on to win 42-19 in dominating fashion. With the win, the 49ers reestablished themselves as the best team in the NFL and closed to just 1-game for the top seed in the NFC and the monumentally important first-round playoff BYE.
Though, the Eagles lost for only the second time this season and were in the tail end of a six-game gauntlet of opponents starting with a home win over the Dallas Cowboys (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS, 8-4 Over-Under) , then a road win over the reigning Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS, 4-8 Over-Under), then were thoroughly outplayed by the Buffalo Bills (6-6, 4-8 ATS, 4-8 Over-Under), but found a way tie the game late in the game and then go to win in overtime. After all of those difficult assignments, I did expect the Eagles' engine to be running on fumes and be capable of pulling off another win over the 49ers. My takeaway was simply that the 49ers are not as great a team and the Eagles are not on the verge of collapse and the result of the Eagles' schedule more so than anything else.
In Week 13 action, home teams produced horrid results going 5-8 SU, 3-10 ATS (23%), and the Over went 9-4. Home underdogs were even worse bets producing a 1-6 ATS record (14%) and the Over went 5-2. Road underdogs did well going 2-4 SU, but 4-2 ATS and 4-2 Over. The most shocking by far was a severely undermanned Cincinnati Bengals team (6-6 SU, 5-6-1 ATS, 6-6 Over-Under) defeating a red-hot Jacksonville Jaguars team (8-4 SU, 8-4 ATS, 6-6 Over-Under) 34-31 in overtime as double-digit dogs. The Jaguars lost more than the game though as their quarterback Trevor Lawrence suffered a high ankle sprain and his status is in question for this week.
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Did the Under Bet Continue to Dominate in Week 13?
Through 12 Weeks of action, the Under had produced a historically strong 101-73-1 record for 58% winning bets on the blind. The Over bet did have a fine week in Week 13 because the market overreacted to the Under trend with pricing that was simply too low. The market had steadily kept moving totals lower over the past several weeks, and like a stock that went into a downward bear market trend reached an oversold situation that then led to a sharp price reversal.
Through Week 12, prime-time games had seen the Under dominate betting action, producing a 29-9 record good for 76% winning bets. In Week 13, the Over was a perfect 3-0 and covered the total by an average of a jaw-dropping 18.2 points per game. So, at 29-12 for the season, the Under has hit at the highest win percentage since 2000. The highest Under win percentage for an entire season occurred in 2012 with a 28-14 record for 67% winners. 14 prime games are remaining on the NFL card and the Over needs to go just 7-7 to make the season-end Under record the second highest win percentage at 65% on a 36-19. The point is to not make the mistake of presuming the Over bet in prime-time games is going to win more than they lose because the Under has done so well this season.
The first game in Week 14 was a textbook example of an oversold and too-cheap price when the New England Patriots and rookie quarterback Bailey Zappe took to the road and shocked the Pittsburgh Steelers 21-18 and covered the spread as 6-point underdogs. The total was 30 points and marked the lowest total in the past 30 years. The Over bet won the money before half time and the Patriots Over team total won the money before the end of the first quarter. Once again, do not fall prey that most of the games remaining in Week 14 or the remainder of the season will play Over as each game must be handicapped and researched on its own mutually exclusive basis.
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Best NFL Betting Opportunities for Week 14
The Buffalo Bills are coming off their BYE week and are in desperate need of earning a win on the road when they visit the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium set to start at 4:25 PM EST. The Bills are one of the best .500 record teams in at least the past decade and find themselves priced as 1.5-point underdogs with a posted total of 48.5 points.
The Bills quarterback played extremely well in their loss to the Eagles in overtime and has thrown for 3,214 passing yards and 24 touchdowns for the season. He has also scored a team-high nine rushing touchdowns. The Chiefs are led by Patrick Mahomes, who has thrown for 3,217 passing yards and 22 touchdowns this season, but Kansas City has had significant struggles scoring in the second half of games and even went three consecutive games without scoring in the second half. They trailed 14-0 to the Raiders before launching a furious offensive attack sending them to a 31-17 win. However, last week they played their worst game of the season, inexplicably losing on the road 27-19 to the Green Bay Packers and their rising star quarterback Jordan Love on Sunday Night Football.
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Can We Trust the Bills or the Chiefs?
The Bills have been playing much better football and can be trusted in this game. The following betting algorithm has produced an outstanding 32-9 SU (78%) and 31-10 ATS (76%) record good for 76% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are:
· The Bet on road teams priced between the 3's.
· The road team has failed to cover the spread in three of their last four games.
· The game is played in December.
If we trim off the line requirement, just a road team regardless of their price has produced a 66-63 SU and 87-42 ATS mark over the past 10 seasons. If our road team regardless of price is taking on a conference host they have produced a 51-47 SU record and 67-30-1 ATS record for 69% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.
My Best Bet for NFL Week 14 is on the Buffalo Bills getting the +1.5 points as offered at BetMGM.
