This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
The 32 NFL teams have played a total of 256 games and there remain 16 games to the regular season schedule that will determine which teams will occupy the final five playoff spots. The previous 256 games have created far more questions than answers to which playoff-bound teams have what it takes to win the Lombardi Trophy.
The recent collapse of the Philadelphia Eagles, who have earned the fifth seed (top wildcard) have lost five of their last six games after starting the season 10-1. Moreover, no Super Bowl Champion has ever suffered a three-game losing streak during the regular season since 2004. Based on the historical hurdle rate reference, the following NFC teams fall into this dubious category.
· The Buccaneers and Packers had four-game losing streaks.
· The 49ers, Rams, Vikings, Seahawks, and Eagles endured three-game losing streaks.
The teams in the AFC that posted three or greater losing streaks this season are:
· The Jaguars posted a four-game losing streak.
· The Bengals, Colts, and Titans endured three-game losing streaks.
The NFC Lions and AFC Ravens and Dolphins are the three teams not to have consecutive losses this season. The NFC Cowboys are the only team to have a two-game losing streak. In the AFC the Bills, Texans, Browns, and Chiefs all endured two-game losing streaks.
I have been touting the Bills as the most dangerous team in the AFC to defeat the top seeds in the playoffs and I bet them 6 weeks ago at +1600 to win the AFC Championship at DraftKings. They are currently priced at +325 over at ESPN BET and continue to believe that represents an excellent betting opportunity. They are the second-listed favorite behind the Ravens, who are priced at +140 to win the AFC. In the NFC I like the Lions at +800 to win the conference championship as offered at ESPN BET.
The ESPN BET promo code gets new customers who sign up with promo code ROTO a Bet Anything, Get $150 offer.
How To Bet NFL Week 18
First, do not bet on any game involving a team that has qualified for the playoffs and has no chance to improve their current seeding. Those teams involve the top-seeds Ravens, who host the Steelers and are priced as 3.5-point underdogs. The 49ers are priced as 3-point favorites over their divisional rival Rams and their all-pro running back Christian McCaffrey is ruled out for this game. Cleveland is locked into the 5-seed and is on the road priced as 3-point underdogs when they take on the Bengals.
The marquee game on the Week 18 slate is obviously the Bills at the Dolphins with the winner earning the AFC East crown, hosting the Wild Card Playoff game, and the loser falling to at least the 6th seed and having to take to the road for every playoff game. The Bills are priced as 3-point road underdogs including a 50-point total as offered at ESPN BET.
The Bills are 10-6 straight-up (SU) and 6-10 against the spread (ATS) including 10-6 Under on the season. They have four consecutive games and five of their last six. They have covered the spread in three of their last five games but lost their last two games to the spread by a combined 19.5 points. They suffered their only losing streak of the year in Weeks 9 and 10 at the Bengals (24-18) and the Broncos (24-22).
The Dolphins are 11-5 SU and 10-6 ATS including 9-7 Over on the season. They are coming off a monster 56-19 road loss to the Ravens failing to cover the spread by a whopping 34 points. However, they have not had consecutive losses on the season and have won five of their last seven games. When they have won the game they have covered the spread in all but one game and when they have lost the game they have failed to cover the spread in all five games.
The Bills have the third-best efficient offense in the NFL posting a 14.75 yards per point ratio, which means for every 14.75 yards they have gained have put an average of one point on the scoreboard. The Dolphins rank 6th in this category with a 14.85 ratio. The Bills rank 4th best in the NFL with a 21.77 yards allowed per point ratio while the Dolphins rank a horrid 29th with a 14.38 ratio. Even more eye-opening in this matchup is that the differential between offensive and defensive yards per point ratios sees the Dolphins ranking 15th with a 0.47 yards per point differential and the Bills ranking 4th-best with a -7.02 yards per point differential. This reflects the simple fact that the Bills are the better team on both sides of the ball, especially on defense.
To get the most bang for your buck in NFL Week 18, be sure to check out the best sportsbook promo codes across the best sports betting sites. If you're interested in NFL prop betting, our NFL player props page has the latest odds across several of the best sportsbooks to help you find the best prices for the wagers you're targeting.
The NFL Betting Algorithm for Week 18
The following betting algorithm supports a betting opportunity using the money line and has produced a 32-13 record good for 71% winning bets over the past 10 years. The requirements are:
· Bet on road teams facing a winning record host.
· The road team defeated the host in their previous game.
· The game occurs in the second half of the regular season.
· The road teams scored 35 or more points in their previous matchup against the host.
· The total is 48 or more points.
The Bills are 24-20 SU and 26-17-1 ATS for 61% winning bets when they have failed to cover the spread in each of their last two games spanning games played since 2010. If they are facing a divisional foe in this situation, they have gone 9-8 SU and 11-6 ATS for 65% winning bets since 2010.
From the predictive models, we are expecting the Bills to score at least 27 points and have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games facing a divisional foe and matching or exceeding these performance expectations, they have gone on to an impressive 21-2 SU record and 19-4 ATS mark good for 83% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.
