This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
In Week 4 action in the NFL, home teams went 7-8 straight-up, 7-7-1 against-the-spread (ATS), and 7-8 Over-Under. For the season, home teams have produced a 29-34 SU record, a 25-33-5 ATS mark for 43% winning bets, and a 29-34 Over-Under record. However, there were tough losses by several teams in Week 4 and now must bounce back with a much-needed win in Week 5.
The worst loss of the week was a 28-3 divisional home loss by the Cleveland Browns to the Baltimore Ravens. The Browns were priced as 1.5-point home dogs ending significant line movements once news was released that Deshaun Watson would not be starting. Still, the effort the Browns put out was pathetic and the Ravens earned an easy and valuable divisional win. The Giants certainly contended for the worst and most embarrassing defeat of the week getting trounced at home by the Seattle Seahawks by the final score of 24-3 and failing to cover the spread priced as 2.5-point home underdogs.
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A Situational Trend is Developing This Season
Through 4 weeks of action, teams that are coming off a home loss priced as an underdog have earned a 6-6 record, 7-4-1 ATS mark for 64% winning bets, and a solid 8-4 Over record good for 67% winning bets. The teams to watch in Week 5 are:
1. Chicago Bears (+6 points | total 41 points) at Washington Commanders
a. Bears won outright 40-20
2. New York Jets (+2.5 points | total 43.5 points) at the Denver Broncos
3. Indianapolis Colts (+2.5 points | total 43.5 points) at the Tennessee Titans
4. New York Giants (+12 points | total 47.5 points) home vs. the Miami Dolphins
5. Carolina Panthers (+10 points | total 44 points) at the Detroit Lions
6. Green Bay Packers (+1 points | 45 points) at the LA Raiders
A deeper dive into the numbers and the situational angles these matchups possess can narrow down the list and provide the best bet opportunity.
The Best Bet Opportunity for the Week 5 NFL Card
The NY Jets season was deemed lost after the injury to veteran quarterback Aaron Rogers in the first set of downs in Week 1. However, the Jets and specifically quarterback Zach Wilson are coming off their best game of the season losing by just three points to the reigning Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs. Wilson outplayed Patrick Mahomes in that game and potentially marks a major sea change to the Jets season.
The Jets Offensive Game Plan
Current Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton may regret the highly derogatory remarks he made in the preseason about former Broncos now current Jets offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett and the extra motivation just might be the elixir that the Jets offense needs to put together a solid road win – granted against a terrible team. As the saying goes, what goes around, comes around, but I like this one far more than what you say because it might bite you in the hind quarters.
The Denver defense is historically the worst one through the first four games of the season since at least 2000. They did allow 70 points to the Miami Dolphins in a horrific Week 3 loss, but they have not played well in any of the first four games. The Jets will attack the perimeter of the porous Bronco defense and get as many targets as possible to Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard. Spreading the defense has worked for every offense that has faced the Broncos and this will open up the middle of the field for high-percentage pass completions to slot WR Randall Cobb and TE Tyler Conklin.
Situational Betting Algorithms
Here are two situational algorithms that produced consistent and highly profitable seasons for at least a decade. The requirement for this one is to bet on road teams priced between the 3's (3-point favorite to a 3-point underdog) in the first half of the season and has covered the spread in only one of their last three games. This set of parameters and conditions has produced a 59-31-5 ATS record good for 65.5% winning bets over the past 10 seasons with just one losing season in 2018.
The second situational algorithm has earned a 38-17 SU record and a 36-16-3 ATS mark good for 69% winning bets over the past 10 seasons and every season has been profitable. The requirements are to bet on road teams lined between the 3's and is facing a host that is coming off a two-game road trip in weeks 5 through 8 of the regular season. Plus, a subset of this algorithm that in games with a total of at least 42 points has earned a highly profitable 31-10 SU mark and a 29-9-3 ATS record good for 76% winning tickets over the past 10 seasons.
My Best Bet this week is on the New York Jets as +2.5-point underdogs at DraftKings when they take on the Denver Broncos at Mile High Stadium on Sunday.
