NFL Week 6 Picks, Predictions, Props and Best Bets for Every Game

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

What a dud of a Monday Night game. I try to be as impartial a Packers fan as possible; in fact, it's something I pride myself on when giving analysis. But I truly never envisioned a scenario where Green Bay would lose with extended rest against a team led by Josh McDaniels. Moving forward I'll operate as if Jordan Love is in the same range of quarterbacks as Kenny Pickett, Mac Jones and Ryan Tannehill (he might be), and that Matt LaFleur is one of a handful of the worst head coaches in the league (he definitely is). At this point, any first-half unders on the Packers or any first-half spreads in favor of teams opposing Green Bay are about as safe as bets come.

Anyway, onto the Week 6 lines!

NFL Week 6 Betting Picks For Each Game

Predictions for NFL Week 6

In this article, we also take a look at NFL Week 6 odds and our predictions for each NFL game. Home teams are listed last.

Week 5 Record ATS:  8-5-1
Week 5 Record on Totals: 6-8
Season Record ATS: 37-38-3
Season Record on Totals: 33-42-1

Broncos vs. Chiefs

It feels like I can never get these Thursday games right. I understand the handwringing when it comes to the Chiefs. Yes, the offense doesn't look as dynamic. Yes, it appears as if Patrick Mahomes found the secret stash of leverage Tom Brady held over the referees throughout his career and is now benefitting from poor officiating to a ridiculous extent. I even agree the Chiefs defense feels toothless far too often. But why would the Broncos suddenly grow a spine for this matchup when they couldn't muster it against the Dolphins, or even the Jets?

Of the five TNF games, three of the overs have hit. I do think there's a bit of scoring discount that comes from a divisional matchup, however, and it's also unclear if both offenses can be consistent enough to put up points.

Spread Pick: Chiefs -10.5
Total Pick: Under 47.5

Ravens vs. Titans

I keep thinking I have the Ravens figured out, but the eggs they laid against the Colts and Steelers have me questioning everything. Baltimore is a good team, I'm almost certain of it. They have dealt with a ton of injuries like they do every year, but they still have enough playmakers on both sides of the ball. I just don't get how they can be so inconsistent.

All I know is, no answers will come from a London game. I do think there will be enough scoring eventually for the over to hit, but I'd absolutely shop around for whatever first-half unders I could get on the Titans specifically. 

Spread Pick: Ravens -4
Total Pick: Over 41

Commanders vs. Falcons

I'm choosing not to overreact to the Week 5 results. It's such a lazy cliche, but I do think if the Commanders/Bears simulate last Thursday's game 10 times, the Commanders win more often than not. Justin Fields seemed like he was especially dialed in, and defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio was quite literally the opposite of whatever dialed in is.

Conversely, the Falcons just aren't a credible team. That they beat the Texans, who I just staked my belief to for the first time all year -- the Bartel curse just may be real -- doesn't sway me much. I'd stay away from this game altogether.

Spread Pick: Commanders +2.5
Total Pick: Under 42.5

Vikings vs. Bears

I wrote this article Tuesday, but I want the record to show this pick will be completely voided if the Vikings trade Kirk Cousins. With Justin Jefferson (hamstring) shifting to injured reserve, Minnesota's season is officially a disaster. Cousins is in the final year of his deal and the Vikings should just take an honest look at where they are and decide to get whatever value they can out of an asset that is likely gone come the offseason.

There are just too many teams -- namely the Jets -- who could absolutely use a quarterback, and Minnesota doesn't even project to be a fringe playoff team at this point. If Cousins stays through Week 6 I do think the offense can do enough to beat the Bears, but that isn't even close to turning around the season.

Spread Pick: Vikings -2.5
Total Pick: Over 44.5

Seahawks vs. Bengals

So one week of relatively healthy play from Joe Burrow and the Bengals are back? I mean, this was a team that just last week was only favored by three in Arizona, so something's not right. The Seahawks should be healthier coming off a bye and the Bengals could realistically be without Tee Higgins (ribs) again.

It's so suspicious of a line that I almost assume Vegas knows something either about the Seahawks or this matchup that I don't. In almost every instance that I can remember, the "something's off" meter has always been right. Is it possible to reverse jinx a gut feeling? 

Spread Pick: Bengals -3
Total Pick: Over 46

49ers vs. Browns

That was about as convincing of a result as you could get Sunday night for the 49ers. I know Mike McCarthy teams typically don't show up for big games, but that was a showcase in the complete disparity between both talent on the field and in the coaching staff.

For what it's worth, the minuscule over/under seems to be Vegas hinting at Deshaun Watson (shoulder) not being available despite the Browns coming off a bye. That seems like a foolish assumption to me, but I'll gesture again to the "something's off" meter and shrug my shoulders.

It was inevitable back in August and I think it rings even more true in mid-October -- the NFC playoffs are just a waiting game until the Eagles and 49ers match up. Not that you should take too many postseason lessons from a game played before Thanksgiving, but Sunday's matchup against the Browns will be a good test to see how that aforementioned battle could unfold thanks to the brilliance of Cleveland's defense. So long as the offensive juggernaut of Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle all stay healthy, and Nick Bosa continues his level of excellent play, I don't really see when or how the 49ers lose this season.

Spread Pick: 49ers -5
Total Pick: Over 38

Saints vs. Texans

Everyone's pointing to Derek Carr's home/away splits, but I think if he was fully healthy this game wouldn't be up for much debate. That being said, I declared I was trusting the Texans last week and I do think Houston's defense can cause a bit more havoc in this one. It's absolutely another game that I just want nothing to do with, but I'll side with C.J. Stroud continuing an impressive start to his career.

Spread Pick: Texans +1.5
Total Pick: Over 42.5

Colts vs. Jaguars

Sunday's London result wasn't surprising to me at all. I don't think the Jaguars are the better team, but there was a significant travel difference, even if the Bills "only" had to travel seven hours or whatever it was from the East Coast to Europe.

I know the top of the article saw me vent about the Packers' overall ineptitude, but I can't help but remember how absolutely incompetent Green Bay looked last year after getting back stateside. It essentially took them one full month to look like a normal football team again. Jacksonville has had a lot of practice with this, but at least recent data does point to there being a continental travel hangover of sorts, and I don't think the downgrade from Anthony Richardson (shoulder) to Gardner Minshew is that pronounced.

Spread Pick: Colts +4.5
Total Pick: Under 45.5

Panthers vs. Dolphins

I'm trying not to think too hard about this one. The Panthers are not a very good football team and don't have an offense that really can take advantage of a so-so defense. The Dolphins have an electric offense and have largely annihiliated the teams they are supposed to, including the Giants, who had more back-door cover potential than the not-so-frisky Panthers.

Spread Pick: Dolphins -13.5
Total Pick: Under 48.5

Patriots vs. Raiders

I'd be surprised if the over ends up clearing 20 points in this one. It's a bit in jest, but seriously, isn't Maxx Crosby just going to dominate this game too? Given all the injuries the Patriots have suffered on defense, I don't really know a single advantage the team has in any given game. I know it sounds bleak, but if you haven't watched the Patriots yet, I don't think you can fully contemplate how bad the offense specifically looks.

Spread Pick: Raiders -3
Total Pick: Under 41.5

Lions vs. Buccaneers

Last year the Giants felt like free money every single week. Essentially they were a team that wasn't very good, but was obviously better and coached well enough to hang around long enough to pick up plenty of wins.

I don't think the Buccaneers replicate that exact same formula, but I do think Vegas somewhat operates the same way from a spread perspective. The Lions have been great; Aidan Hutchinson is an obvious game wrecker and the Lions don't really do enough things "wrong" to lose many games. But that's exactly how I'd describe this version of the Buccaneers, too, and they're at home off a bye, no less. Maybe Baker Mayfield goes back to being a pumpkin, but until he actually does, we have to operate like what he's been in 2023 -- a capable commander of an offense that has a lot of options.

Spread Pick: Buccaneers +3
Total Pick: Over 43.5

Cardinals vs. Rams

No James Conner (knee) is going to be a bigger deal than I think people will realize. The veteran was a stabilizing presence on a per-touch basis and gave the offense flexibility to run or pass depending on the matchup. 

On the flip side, the return of Cooper Kupp absolutely opened up the offense for the Rams, to the point where I think they're a threat now to get back to a consistent chain-moving attack. I know NFC West divisional games tend to get really weird, but there does seem like a pretty significant talent advantage between the two squads at the moment.

Spread Pick: Rams -6.5
Total Pick: Under 48.5

Eagles vs. Jets

This is the type of game where a quarterback talent deficiency such as the one the Jets are dealing with is just going to be too hard to overcome. No Alijah Vera-Tucker (Achilles) and possible injuries to cornerbacks D.J. Reed (concussion) and Brandin Echols (hamstring) don't help the matter either. I'd prefer to just bet the under on Jets total points scored, but the total under is probably safe too.

Spread Pick: Eagles -7
Total Pick: Under 41.5

Giants vs. Bills

I'm assuming Daniel Jones (neck) is going to play, but that's probably a poor call to do so. Andrew Thomas (hamstring), Marcus McKethan (knee) and John Michael Schmitz (shoulder) are all banged up along the Giants offensive line, and it's possible -- although unlikely -- that Saquon Barkley (ankle) is unavailable again. There's a lot of adversity here, I recognize.

But I do get worried about the crazy London travel affecting the Bills in this situation, not to mention the loss of two critical defensive pieces -- Matt Milano specifically -- that might negate a bit of the Giants' short comings. Am I desperately trying to rationalize this game being competitive, and therefore not having to witness another brutal Jones primetime game? Yes, I am. And frankly, you should too. The NFL schedule-makers might hate us by putting the Giants in prim etime again, but that doesn't mean you need to be pessimistic.

Spread Pick: Giants +14
Total Pick: Over 44.5

Cowboys vs. Chargers

I really have no idea what to make of this contest. It's a revenge game for offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the Chargers are coming off a bye. The Cowboys defense looked particularly vulnerable Sunday against the 49ers, but at this point so would the '85 Bears.

I'm not sure there's really going to be a lot of defense from either side, but I thought that last week too and both teams ended up not wanting to even throw a haymaker. When push comes to shove, quarterback Justin Herbert typically makes a shootout, but that doesn't always guarantee a win.

Spread Pick: Chargers +2.5
Total Pick: Under 50.5

NFL Week 6 Best Bets

Next, we take a look at our favorite Week 6 NFL best bets at the best NFL betting sites. We went 4-9 in best bets last week, but at least we had a few major plus-money hits take place. While I'm obligated to pick against the spread above, the best bets section highlights my favorite leans and also tries to take advantage of a few of the parlay props offered as of this writing.

BetMGM Best Bets for NFL Week 6

BetMGM offers some of the best odds available for Week 6. If you're not signed up at BetMGM yet, new players at BetMGM can use the BetMGM bonus code ROTOBONUS for a risk-free bet worth up to $1,000. Here are our NFL best bets for Week 3 at BetMGM.

• First Eagles loss Week 11 at Chiefs (+800)
• 49ers (+1), Dolphins (-6.5), Eagles (straight) seven-point teaser (+120)

Caesars Sportsbook Best Bets for NFL Week 6

Caesars Sportsbook also has great betting odds for NFL Week 6. If you are not registered yet, use the Caesars Sportsbook promo code ROTOFULL for a first bet on Caesars.

• Seahawks/Bengals over 45.5 (-110)

WynnBET Best Bets for NFL Week 6

WynnBet has a strong menu of NFL Week 6 wagers to choose from, along with competitive odds. Sign up with the WynnBET promo code XROTO for up to $100 in free bets if you have yet to register at WynnBet.

• Over 7.5 points scored in third quarter of Titans/Ravens (+102)
• Under 20.5 first-half points between Raiders/Patriots (-115)

DraftKings Best Bets for NFL Week 6

 DraftKings Sportsbook has special offers for new users just in time for Week 6 of the NFL season. here are our best picks available at DraftKings Sportsbook this week.

• Tyjae Spears over 14.5 receiving yards (-120)
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling over 13.5 longest reception (-110)

FanDuel Best Bets for NFL Week 6

One of the most popular sportsbooks available is FanDuel Sportsbook. Let's take a look at our favorite betting picks with FanDuel odds.

• Texans, Rams, Eagles, 49ers all win (+412)

BetRivers Best Bets for NFL Week 6

BetRivers is an up-and-coming and underrated sportsbook, and they are offering up to $500 in second-chance bets with the BetRivers bonus code. Bettors can use those for these picks on NFL Week 3.

• Dolphins (-6.5), Eagles (straight), 49ers/Browns over 30.5 (+132) 
• Vikings moneyline (-139)

PointsBet Best Bets for NFL Week 6

For bettors looking for a unique way to wager, try the PointsBet promo code for our Week 6 NFL picks. You can try "PointsBetting" for Week 6 to maximize your return.

• Falcons/Commanders under 42.5 points

Look ahead at the NFL Week 7 odds as well, if you're interested in getting ahead of the line movement.