On Target: Garcon Makes the Quarterback

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Updated on December 25, 2013 6:26AM EST

So you've still got another week, huh? Tough time to be playing fantasy as the NFL playoff picture starts to get a little clearer. Many teams have locked into a playoff spot, while a few continue to fight. The good news is it appears the only team that has absolutely nothing to gain or lose this week is the Kansas City Chiefs. Win or lose, they are locked into the No. 5 seed in the AFC. OK, so maybe that's not good news for those who own Jamaal Charles, Dwayne Bowe, Alex Smith and the Chiefs defense, but for everyone else, there's still plenty of hope.

It looks as though, in the early games, the only ones that really impact the later games are the Ravens-Bengals, Jets-Dolphins and the Colts-Jags, but teams affected who play later still have other factors to consider, so winning is paramount. To make it a little easier for you, check out this link of playoff scenarios where NFL.com has it all laid out for you on one page.

After you go figure out that mind-numbing headache, look at last week's targets leaders and some additional thoughts.

Week 16 Target Leaders

(Click column headings to sort.)

PLAYER	POS	YARDS	TD	PASS ATT	TARGETS	REC	RZ TRGT	RZ TRG%	CATCH%	TARGET%
Pierre Garcon, WAS	WR	144	1	36	18	11	2	50.0	61.1	51.4
Eric Decker, DEN	WR	131	2	51	17	10	5	71.4	58.8	33.3
Josh Gordon, CLE	WR	97

After you go figure out that mind-numbing headache, look at last week's targets leaders and some additional thoughts.

Week 16 Target Leaders

(Click column headings to sort.)

PLAYER	POS	YARDS	TD	PASS ATT	TARGETS	REC	RZ TRGT	RZ TRG%	CATCH%	TARGET%
Pierre Garcon, WAS	WR	144	1	36	18	11	2	50.0	61.1	51.4
Eric Decker, DEN	WR	131	2	51	17	10	5	71.4	58.8	33.3
Josh Gordon, CLE	WR	97	0	40	16	6	5	62.5	37.5	40.0
Roddy White, ATL	WR	141	1	48	15	12	1	16.7	80.0	31.3
Demaryius Thomas, DEN	WR	123	1	51	14	8	1	14.3	57.1	27.5
Jarrett Boykin, GB	WR	54	1	39	13	5	4	80.0	38.5	33.3
Andre Johnson, HOU	WR	63	0	37	13	4	2	50.0	30.8	36.1
Antonio Brown, PIT	WR	105	0	29	13	6	2	33.3	46.2	44.8
A.J. Green, CIN	WR	97	2	38	12	7	3	42.9	58.3	31.6
James Jones, GB	WR	84	0	39	12	9	0	0.0	75.0	30.8
Jerrel Jernigan, NYG	WR	80	1	42	12	6	1	100.0	50.0	28.6
Tony Gonzalez, ATL	TE	63	1	48	11	8	2	33.3	72.7	22.9
Dez Bryant, DAL	WR	73	1	27	11	4	3	50.0	36.4	40.7
Mike Wallace, MIA	WR	38	0	33	11	4	0	0.0	36.4	34.4
Julian Edelman, NE	WR	77	0	26	11	7	0	0.0	63.6	42.3
Jimmy Graham, NO	TE	73	1	45	11	5	2	100.0	45.5	24.4
Jeremy Kerley, NYJ	WR	70	0	37	11	5	1	20.0	45.5	30.6
Joique Bell, DET	RB	63	0	42	10	10	1	33.3	100.0	24.4
Dwayne Bowe, KC	WR	46	0	28	10	5	1	50.0	50.0	35.7
Brian Hartline, MIA	WR	53	0	33	10	2	0	0.0	20.0	31.3
Marques Colston, NO	WR	63	0	45	10	5	0	0.0	50.0	22.2
Vincent Jackson, TB	WR	98	0	26	10	5	1	50.0	50.0	40.0

Pierre Garcon, WR WAS - I'll be the first to admit it; my initial reaction to RG3 sitting and Kirk Cousins finishing out the year gave me some pause regarding Garcon's fantasy value the rest of the way. However, the Redskins haven't skipped a beat, and Garcon is seeing as much action, if not more, than with Griffin at the helm. His 18 targets led the way this week and he has one more week to prove he can be elite regardless of who is under center. He does have a bit of a tough matchup this week with the Giants, whose pass defense not only ranks 10th in the league overall, but also ranks eighth against opposing No. 1 wideouts, holding them to 58.6 yards per game. Obviously he's still a must-start, but another 144 yards seems a bit unlikely.

Jarrett Boykin, WR GB - Here's another who looked like his value was going to take a significant hit, and while he didn't exactly light it up with the revolving door of quarterbacks, he still posted one 100-yard game, had two touchdowns and had only two games with fewer than 50 yards. We'll still have to wait on Aaron Rodgers' status, but even here with Flynn, Boykin has 19 targets over his last two games. The Bears rank 16th in the league against opposing No. 3 receivers, so Boykin could have a big day in what should be a very important game for both teams.

Jerrel Jernigan, WR NYG - While most thought it would be Rueben Randle who would walk away the hero in the absence of Victor Cruz, Jernigan actually lined up in the slot and played a solid game as the Giants' primary possession receiver and chain mover. He is expected to fill the same role this week against Washington, which, on paper, looks to be a much softer matchup than last week. The Skins pass defense continues to struggle, ranking 22nd in the league.

Jeremy Kerley, WR NYJ - Well, now, here's a name we haven't seen in quite some time, and based on how erratic the Jets offense is, one that we probably won't be discussing this time next week. Against a sad-sack Cleveland team is one thing, but Geno Smith is going to have to do backflips and cartwheels if he expects to pass like that against the Dolphins and their 12th-ranked pass defense. While the Jets would love to play spoiler and Kerley is likely itching for another big game, it's going to prove to be a heck of a lot more difficult with Miami needing a win for a playoff spot.

Now as for the overall ...

Overall Targets Leaderboard

(Click column headings to sort.)

PLAYER	POS	YARDS	TD	PASS ATT	TARGETS	REC	RZ TRGT	RZ TRG	CATCH	TARGET
Pierre Garcon, WAS	WR	1290	5	563	172	107	20	31.3	62.2	31.2
Andre Johnson, HOU	WR	1358	5	599	172	103	15	24.2	59.9	29.3
A.J. Green, CIN	WR	1365	10	547	168	94	21	32.3	56.0	31.1
Calvin Johnson, DET	WR	1492	12	601	156	84	26	33.3	53.8	24.5
Brandon Marshall, CHI	WR	1221	11	556	154	94	20	25.3	61.0	28.4
Antonio Brown, PIT	WR	1412	8	556	152	101	19	22.4	66.4	28.0
Josh Gordon, CLE	WR	1564	9	631	149	80	17	22.7	53.7	23.3
Vincent Jackson, TB	WR	1189	7	482	147	74	18	34.6	50.3	32.2
Dez Bryant, DAL	WR	1134	12	540	146	85	21	30.0	58.2	27.1
Alshon Jeffery, CHI	WR	1341	7	556	141	86	19	24.1	61.0	26.0
Julian Edelman, NE	WR	991	6	604	140	96	21	28.0	68.6	23.6
Demaryius Thomas, DEN	WR	1317	12	630	136	86	19	17.6	63.2	21.6
Jimmy Graham, NO	TE	1144	15	620	134	81	24	30.4	60.4	21.9
Kendall Wright, TEN	WR	1029	2	509	132	89	10	17.9	67.4	26.4
Eric Decker, DEN	WR	1261	10	630	131	83	23	21.3	63.4	20.8
Torrey Smith, BAL	WR	1101	4	569	130	62	16	22.9	47.7	23.0
Mike Wallace, MIA	WR	905	4	564	129	68	10	15.6	52.7	23.3
Brian Hartline, MIA	WR	978	4	564	128	74	11	17.2	57.8	23.1
Larry Fitzgerald, ARZ	WR	841	10	525	124	76	22	35.5	61.3	24.7
Cecil Shorts, JAC	WR	777	3	518	123	66	16	20.0	53.7	21.7
Harry Douglas, ATL	WR	1009	2	619	123	78	14	16.5	63.4	20.2
T.Y. Hilton, IND	WR	928	5	543	123	71	10	13.3	57.7	20.4
Victor Cruz, NYG	WR	998	4	535	122	73	12	23.5	59.8	23.9
DeSean Jackson, PHI	WR	1304	9	480	122	79	10	18.5	64.8	26.0
Anquan Boldin, SF	WR	1030	6	382	118	76	13	28.3	64.4	33.9
Tony Gonzalez, ATL	TE	803	8	619	117	79	25	29.4	67.5	19.2
Jordan Cameron, CLE	TE	848	7	631	111	75	19	25.3	67.6	17.3
Jordy Nelson, GB	WR	1153	8	531	111	75	19	24.7	67.6	21.6
Wes Welker, DEN	WR	778	10	630	111	73	24	22.2	65.8	17.6
Steve Smith, CAR	WR	745	4	446	110	64	16	29.6	58.2	25.2
Emmanuel Sanders, PIT	WR	714	6	556	108	65	16	18.8	60.2	19.9
Antonio Gates, SD	TE	841	3	536	108	73	13	15.1	67.6	21.5
Jamaal Charles, KC	RB	693	7	516	104	70	18	23.1	67.3	18.9
Marques Colston, NO	WR	876	5	620	104	69	16	20.3	66.3	17.0
Greg Olsen, CAR	TE	774	5	446	103	67	17	31.5	65.0	23.6
Dwayne Bowe, KC	WR	673	5	516	103	57	14	17.9	55.3	18.7
Steve Johnson, BUF	WR	597	3	493	101	52	12	30.0	51.5	21.0
Greg Jennings, MIN	WR	760	4	513	100	63	12	20.7	63.0	19.9
Michael Floyd, ARZ	WR	950	5	525	99	59	12	19.4	59.6	19.7
Nate Washington, TEN	WR	880	3	509	99	56	5	8.9	56.6	19.8
Hakeem Nicks, NYG	WR	846	0	535	97	54	10	19.6	55.7	19.0
Keenan Allen, SD	WR	957	8	536	96	66	20	23.3	68.8	19.1
Charles Clay, MIA	TE	716	6	564	96	65	14	21.9	67.7	17.3
Jason Witten, DAL	TE	716	8	540	95	61	16	22.9	64.2	17.7
Greg Little, CLE	WR	456	2	631	95	40	12	16.0	42.1	14.8
Martellus Bennett, CHI	TE	744	5	556	93	64	16	20.3	68.8	17.2
Jerome Simpson, MIN	WR	697	1	513	93	45	7	12.1	48.4	18.5
Rod Streater, OAK	WR	848	3	481	90	55	9	18.4	61.1	19.3
Matt Forte, CHI	RB	547	2	556	90	70	11	13.9	77.8	16.6
Garrett Graham, HOU	TE	545	5	599	89	49	13	21.0	55.1	15.2
Golden Tate, SEA	WR	769	4	437	89	56	8	16.7	62.9	23.1
DeAndre Hopkins, HOU	WR	767	2	599	86	48	10	16.1	55.8	14.7
James Jones, GB	WR	776	3	531	86	53	12	15.6	61.6	16.7
Davone Bess, CLE	WR	362	2	631	86	42	8	10.7	48.8	13.4
Julius Thomas, DEN	TE	752	12	630	85	60	16	14.8	70.6	13.5
Darren Sproles, NO	RB	574	2	620	85	69	8	10.1	81.2	13.9
Delanie Walker, TEN	TE	542	6	509	83	57	17	30.4	68.7	16.6
Coby Fleener, IND	TE	583	4	543	83	51	13	17.3	61.4	13.7
Kris Durham, DET	WR	490	2	601	83	38	13	16.7	45.8	13.0
Pierre Thomas, NO	RB	510	3	620	83	76	11	13.9	91.6	13.6
Roddy White, ATL	WR	620	2	619	83	55	11	12.9	66.3	13.7
Danny Woodhead, SD	RB	563	6	536	80	69	22	25.6	86.3	15.9
Riley Cooper, PHI	WR	796	8	480	80	44	11	20.4	55.0	17.1
Brandon LaFell, CAR	WR	627	5	446	80	49	8	14.8	61.3	18.3
Danny Amendola, NE	WR	624	2	604	80	53	6	8.0	66.3	13.5

Target Percentage

Eric Decker, WR DEN - For the third time in the last four weeks, Decker's target percentage is on the rise. You never want to be happy about an injury, but it's obvious that Wes Welker's concussion has been a big part of Decker's late-season resurgence. The game against San Diego was a rough one, but over the last four games, Decker has seen 46 targets, three 100-yard games and seven touchdowns. Denver needs the win (or a Patriots loss, but they play at the same time) to clinch home-field throughout the playoffs, so expect Peyton Manning to come out firing on all cylinders and pad that single-season touchdown record. The Raiders pass defense ranks 27th overall and 29th in the league against No. 2 wideouts. Expect more big things from Decker this week.

Jason Witten, TE DAL - Witten's target percentage has gone the way of Tony Romo lately, which means south. Even in a game where the Cowboys are chucking it around all day, the focus is simply not on the tight end anymore. For the third time in five weeks, there's been a drop in target percentage, and it's obvious in the yardage results. He does have four touchdowns, which preserves his value, especially at this time of the year, so there is still hope. If you're looking for even more hope, then look no further than the fact that the Eagles rank 25th against the tight end this season. Yes, Kyle Orton will be under center, but could he do any worse than Romo? Probably not.

Red Zone Target Percentage

Danny Woodhead, RB SD - He's seen his red-zone targets diminish the last few games as Keenan Allen gets more looks and the Chargers lean on the ground game with Ryan Mathews a little more. But with nothing riding on this game, there's a good chance the Chargers just stick with what they know against the Chiefs and that would be exposing a few of their holes with regard to running backs. The Chiefs ranked 15th in the league against running back pass plays, and Woodhead took full advantage of that the last time they faced each other. He had four catches for 45 yards and a touchdowns and got half a dozen carries, which he turned into 25 more yards and another touchdown. It was his second-most productive fantasy day of the season, and that was in Arrowhead of all places.

Harry Douglas, WR ATL - His red-zone target percentage jumped nearly three points from last week thanks to a strong game against the 49ers on Monday night. Matt Ryan threw six passes inside the red zone in that game and half went to Douglas. Sure, they've got the Panthers defense this week, but if they were able to expose certain holes in the 49ers secondary, they just might have similar luck against Carolina. I don't expect Douglas to rack up much in the way of yards, but if Ryan looks for him in the red zone again, he could have a decent day.

Potential Risers

Jarrett Boykin
Rueben Randle
Marlon Brown
Doug Baldwin
Vernon Davis

Potential Fallers

Jerome Simpson
DeAndre Hopkins
Kris Durham
Pierre Thomas
Coby Fleener

Week 17 Matchup to Watch

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears - Let's face it, while we have two teams competing for the NFC North title, we have two very poor defenses. Both run defenses are weak, so Eddie Lacy and Matt Forte, two backs who also do a great job of catching passes out of the backfield, should get both teams off to a strong start. But with that, you know the passing game opens and both teams will be happy to air it out in a shootout. Maybe Aaron Rodgers plays, maybe he doesn't, but Jordy Nelson, Jarrett Boykin and James Jones should be major factors in the Green Bay gameplan. On the opposite side, while we'd all love to see Josh McCown return, Jay Cutler will lead the charge, and Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery are two of the best in the game. And don't sleep on Martellus Bennett. The Packers rank 24th in the league at defending against the tight end.

Happy holidays to you all, and I wish you all the biggest of money finishes this year and next!