On Target: Houston, We Have a QB

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Updated on November 6, 2013 10:33AM EST

The brutality that comes with a six-team bye week has finally passed and fantasy owners in deeper leagues couldn't be happier. With so many options taken off the board for the week, the waiver wire was looking ridiculously barren in leagues of 14 teams or more. Even in 12-team leagues, the options were pretty limited for the most part, especially with the way owners have been stockpiling receivers now that the running back position has officially become its own fantasy wasteland. But by tracking targets, the task of finding someone who could end up a legitimate short-term replacement becomes a little easier. Not much, but a little.

For example, if you look at the Week 9 targets leaderboard just below, you'll see Doug Baldwin, who fared reasonably well with six catches for 75 yards and a touchdown. Not many owners saw that coming, but if you were tracking the targets for each of the Seattle receivers, you would have seen that, throughout the season, Baldwin has been a highly targeted player and was about to see increased opportunity. Golden Tate was the No. 1 receiver in terms of targets (53 targets prior to Week 9) with Sidney Rice as the No. 2 with 35 targets. Baldwin had 30 prior to last weekend, Jermaine Kearse was picking up the rear with 15. With Percy Harvin not ready to return, Rice hurt and Tate about to be blanketed by Darrelle Revis, all that was left for Russell Wilson was Baldwin.

As you scroll down the list, there are few unfamiliar names on the targets list. Quarterbacks obviously stick with what they know and who they trust, so deviating from the choice of receiver doesn't happen too often. As a result, I've actually extended the Week 9 targets list this week just to give us a look at a few more names we don't often get a chance, or even have a need most times, to discuss. Let's look at how everything played out in Week 9.

Week 9 Target Leaders

(Click column headings to sort.)

PLAYER	POS	YARDS	TD	PASS ATT	TARGETS	REC	RZ TRGT	RZ TRG%	CATCH%	TARGET%
A.J. Green, CIN	WR	128	0	53	19	11	5	42.9	57.9	35.8
Andre Johnson, HOU	WR	229	3	34	13	9	2	100.0	69.2	38.2
Brandon Marshall, CHI	WR	107	1	41	13	7	2	33.3	53.8	31.7
Dwayne Bowe, KC	WR	67	0	29	12	7	1	33.3	58.3	41.4
T.Y. Hilton, IND	WR	121	3	40	12	7	5	40.0	58.3	30.0
Danny Woodhead, SD	RB	77	0	46	12	9	2	20.0	75.0	26.1
Jimmy Graham, NO	TE	116	2	51	12	9	1	50.0	75.0	23.5
Pierre Garcon, WAS	WR	172	0	32	11	7	0	0.0	63.6	34.4
Keenan Allen, SD	WR	128	1	46	11	8	4	40.0	72.7	23.9
Emmanuel Sanders, PIT	WR	98	0	48	11	6	4	27.3	54.5	22.9
Dez Bryant, DAL	WR	64	0	51	11	6	0	0.0	54.5	21.6
Denarius Moore, OAK	WR	82	0	56	11	5	4	28.6	45.5	19.6
Doug Baldwin, SEA	WR	75	1	26	10	6	5	75.0	60.0	38.5
Rob Gronkowski, NE	TE	143	1	33	10	9	6	60.0	90.0	30.3
Steve Smith, CAR	WR	52	0	37	10	4	1	50.0	40.0	27.0
Antonio Gates, SD	TE	53	0	46	10	6	3	20.0	60.0	21.7
Le'Veon Bell, PIT	RB	65	0	48	10	4	3	27.3	40.0	20.8
Jason Witten, DAL	TE	102	1	51	10	8	1	33.3	80.0	19.6
Lance Moore, NO	WR	70	0	51	10	6	1	50.0	60.0	19.6
Pierre Thomas, NO	RB	66	0	51	10	7	0	0.0	70.0	19.6
Rashad Jennings, OAK	RB	74	0	56	10	7	0	0.0	70.0	17.9
Aaron Dobson, NE	WR	130	2	33	9	5	1	20.0	55.6	27.3
Greg Little, CLE	WR	122	0	37	9	7	0	0.0	77.8	24.3
Brandon LaFell, CAR	WR	74	0	37	9	6	0	0.0	66.7	24.3
Greg Jennings, MIN	WR	56	0	37	9	6	2	66.7	66.7	24.3
Scott Chandler, BUF	TE	26	0	39	9	3	1	14.3	33.3	23.1
Griff Whalen, IND	WR	32	0	40	9	3	1	10.0	33.3	22.5
Marlon Brown, BAL	WR	54	2	41	9	5	3	40.0	55.6	22.0
Antonio Brown, PIT	WR	71	1	48	9	5	1	9.1	55.6	18.8
Cole Beasley, DAL	WR	68	0	51	9	6	1	33.3	66.7	17.6
Alshon Jeffery, CHI	WR	60	1	41	9	5	4	66.7	55.6	22.0
Jordy Nelson, GB	WR	67	0	21	9	4	2	33.3	44.4	42.9
Mohamed Sanu, CIN	WR	62	0	53	9	6	1	14.3	66.7	17.0

Dwayne Bowe, WR KC - In years past, he's been one of the better options as he saw consistent targets and scoring at a rate that fantasy owners were comfortable with on a weekly basis. But the switch to Alex Smith at quarterback this year has dramatically affected Bowe's worth as the two don't hook up as often as we'd like. This week is the obvious exception as he saw a season-high 12 targets with Buffalo so caught up in stopping the run. Unfortunately, though, if you had him starting in a standard scoring league, he didn't contribute a whole heck of a lot with just 67 yards and no touchdowns. He was slightly better in PPR formats, but nothing to write home about. But can that change? Yes, provided he continues to see a strong percentage of the targets. With matchups against some of the softest pass defenses the next five weeks - Denver (twice), San Diego, Washington and Oakland - Bowe could conceivably turn his season around.

Emmanuel Sanders, WR PIT - That's now back-to-back weeks with 11 targets for Sanders who has become one of the more reliable possession receivers for Ben Roethlisberger lately. However, before you go dropping someone in your lineup for him, keep in mind that he still has more to prove. Five consecutive weeks leading up to Week 8, Sanders posted only a 50-percent catch rate. That's not particularly strong for a possession receiver. Heck, that's not particularly strong for any receiver, especially when league average is roughly 60 percent. And while Week 8 was a success, Sanders was not a major red-zone target in Week 9, and he saw the high number of looks because Pittsburgh was way down on the scoreboard and Antonio Brown was benched for a series of on-field miscues. He could continue to see a strong number of looks each week, but don't expect to see too much endzone dancing.

Lance Moore, WR NO - He's finally healthy again and back on Drew Brees' radar. The early season injury really did him in, but now that he's back and is one of the few familiar receivers Brees has, he should be collecting some strong target numbers. If he's available, pick him up as things could get even bigger and better for him in the coming weeks.

Rashad Jennings, RB OAK - With Darren McFadden down with a hamstring injury, Jennings came to the team's rescue as he rumbled to an impressive 102 yards with a touchdown. But let's not go putting him in Canton just yet. Your fantasy team, OK, but only as a replacement for McFadden. We've seen enough of Jennings over the years to know better and not be fooled into believing he's worth more than he actually is. And as for the targets he saw, the Raiders are likely to change the distribution this week against the Giants as Marcel Reece is a better receiver.

Add-Ons To Watch

Aaron Dobson, WR NE - The rookie receiver has seen strong target numbers most of the season but has really stepped into the limelight these last two weeks with a total of 190 yards and three touchdowns. He's already surpassed fellow rookie Kenbrell Thompkins and is also getting more looks than former favorite Julian Edelman. It's probably safe to say that he's behind only Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola in the receiving pecking order, which makes him a strong play as the New England offense takes off.

Griff Whalen, WR IND - With Darrius Heyward-Bey's granite hands making him an untrustworthy target, Andre luck turned to Whalen as the complement to T.Y. Hilton. Whalen struggled with his most extensive action of the year, but there is plenty of room to grow. Should he prove to be a reliable target, which means increasing that catch rate consistently, he could prove to be a decent sleeper in deeper leagues.

Scott Chandler, TE BUF - He saw an average of six targets per game with EJ Manuel at the helm in the early part of the season and has been more of a focal point in the passing attack these last two weeks. The change in quarterback, the return of Manuel that is, should help maintain the number of looks he sees. If he can get a boost in his red-zone looks, then he'll be a much better option at tight end over the second half of the season.

Mohamed Sanu, WR CIN - As defenses start to worry more about Marvin Jones, Sanu's target rate should start to increase as he'll be left in a lot of favorable one-on-one situations. Still only an option in deeper leagues, he does have the potential to do more.

Now let's look at the overall.

Overall Targets Leaderboard

(Click column headings to sort.)

PLAYER	POS	YARDS	TD	PASS ATT	TARGETS	REC	RZ TRGT	RZ TRG%	CATCH%	TARGET%
A.J. Green, CIN	WR	862	5	328	103	57	24	31.7	55.3	31.4
Vincent Jackson, TB	WR	634	4	297	94	43	17	35.7	45.7	31.6
Pierre Garcon, WAS	WR	684	2	309	89	54	19	34.3	60.7	28.8
Cecil Shorts, JAC	WR	565	1	281	87	46	24	24.0	52.9	31.0
Dez Bryant, DAL	WR	705	8	346	87	51	26	26.8	58.6	25.1
Andre Johnson, HOU	WR	813	3	314	84	57	6	12.9	67.9	26.8
Antonio Brown, PIT	WR	701	3	310	82	61	11	21.4	74.4	26.5
Brandon Marshall, CHI	WR	647	6	287	81	53	19	25.0	65.4	28.2
DeSean Jackson, PHI	WR	823	6	307	80	50	10	23.7	62.5	26.1
Calvin Johnson, DET	WR	821	7	338	79	47	28	37.8	59.5	23.4
Victor Cruz, NYG	WR	677	4	311	77	47	9	25.0	61.0	24.8
Jimmy Graham, NO	TE	746	10	322	74	49	14	28.9	66.2	23.0
Julian Edelman, NE	WR	473	2	340	74	49	15	26.3	66.2	21.8
Mike Wallace, MIA	WR	480	1	299	72	36	11	22.6	50.0	24.1
Wes Welker, DEN	WR	555	9	332	72	50	35	30.6	69.4	21.7
Jordan Cameron, CLE	TE	600	6	360	72	50	25	33.3	69.4	20.0
Jamaal Charles, KC	RB	389	2	315	71	47	17	22.5	66.2	22.5
Eric Decker, DEN	WR	669	3	332	70	46	24	19.4	65.7	21.1
Torrey Smith, BAL	WR	707	1	310	69	36	7	17.5	52.2	22.3
Steve Johnson, BUF	WR	423	3	312	69	38	16	32.1	55.1	22.1
Demaryius Thomas, DEN	WR	685	6	332	69	48	15	16.1	69.6	20.8
Emmanuel Sanders, PIT	WR	494	2	310	68	37	12	21.4	54.4	21.9
Hakeem Nicks, NYG	WR	521	0	311	67	34	8	25.0	50.7	21.5
Steve Smith, CAR	WR	387	3	239	66	36	19	39.3	54.5	27.6
T.Y. Hilton, IND	WR	533	5	269	66	34	6	13.9	51.5	24.5
Alshon Jeffery, CHI	WR	621	3	287	66	38	20	27.5	57.6	23.0
Tony Gonzalez, ATL	TE	476	4	333	66	44	22	27.1	66.7	19.8
Jason Witten, DAL	TE	505	4	346	66	45	13	22.0	68.2	19.1
Josh Gordon, CLE	WR	626	3	360	66	35	9	11.1	53.0	18.3
Antonio Gates, SD	TE	550	2	320	65	48	16	17.0	73.8	20.3
Larry Fitzgerald, ARI	WR	470	5	285	64	36	15	32.0	56.3	22.5
Kendall Wright, TEN	WR	502	1	252	63	43	8	21.7	68.3	25.0
Jordy Nelson, GB	WR	716	7	270	63	43	17	27.5	68.3	23.3
Greg Little, CLE	WR	340	1	360	63	28	12	15.6	44.4	17.5
Anquan Boldin, SF	WR	551	2	198	62	38	8	29.2	61.3	31.3
Brian Hartline, MIA	WR	477	2	299	61	38	4	12.9	62.3	20.4
Robert Woods, BUF	WR	349	2	312	60	26	9	21.4	43.3	19.2
Davone Bess, CLE	WR	285	2	360	60	31	11	15.6	51.7	16.7
Denarius Moore, OAK	WR	513	4	248	59	32	19	33.3	54.2	23.8
Aaron Dobson, NE	WR	454	4	340	58	31	14	21.1	53.4	17.1
Golden Tate, SEA	WR	468	3	279	57	35	8	23.1	61.4	20.4
Dwayne Bowe, KC	WR	369	2	315	57	33	10	17.5	57.9	18.1
Danny Woodhead, SD	RB	391	3	320	57	49	16	22.6	86.0	17.8
Harry Douglas, ATL	WR	571	1	333	57	38	14	15.3	66.7	17.1
Nate Washington, TEN	WR	439	2	252	56	26	5	13.0	46.4	22.2
Jerome Simpson, MIN	WR	446	0	280	56	29	4	14.8	51.8	20.0
Jared Cook, STL	TE	411	3	333	56	32	16	16.0	57.1	16.8
Kenbrell Thompkins, NE	WR	334	4	340	56	23	18	26.3	41.1	16.5
Greg Jennings, MIN	WR	392	2	280	55	31	10	29.6	56.4	19.6
Michael Floyd, ARI	WR	433	2	285	55	34	8	28.0	61.8	19.3
Martellus Bennett, CHI	TE	392	4	287	55	36	20	30.0	65.5	19.2

Again, as you sort the table by target percentage you'll see the same old names listed at the top. While Vincent Jackson, A.J. Green and Cecil Shorts have maintained their must-start status (even with the occasional bad game), Anquan Boldin has struggled to produce since he started seeing all those double-teams after Week 1. But that could change in the coming weeks. With the return of Mario Manningham, Boldin should stop seeing regular double-teams as the coverage will need to spread out more, and while his target percentage may drop a little, the quality of his production should increase. Expect him to be a reliable possession receiver between the 20s, but he should also start seeing more red-zone looks.

Antonio Brown, WR PIT - As mentioned, Brown was benched for a good portion of the second half this week due to a few miscues on offense. Mike Tomlin's decision gave Emmanuel Sanders more to look at, and thus Brown's numbers suffered as you would expect. It's hard to believe that this trend will continue, though, as Brown is a huge threat in the passing attack and the offense is clearly better with him on the field than off. Monitor the practice schedule this week to see if Tomlin and Brown have smoothed things over.

Andre Johnson, WR HOU - Welcome back to the party, Andre. Oh, how we've missed you. It's a combination of him staying healthy and Case Keenum becoming more comfortable in the offense, but things are certainly looking up for the former top-five wideout. We obviously need to see more of this before we're completely endorsing his must-start status again, but this is definitely a good start and at a very crucial time.

T.Y. Hilton, WR IND - He is slowly establishing himself as the clear-cut No. 1 receiver for Indianapolis, and while he's no Reggie Wayne, he is certainly taking steps to improve his reliability. After catching just three passes off 11 targets in Week 7, Hilton bounced back after the bye and hauled in seven of the 12 targets that went his way. Provided he maintains a strong catch rate, we should continue to see his target rate climb and with that, his overall fantasy value.

Red-Zone Target Percentage Leaders

If you sort the list by red zone targets as we usually do, you'll see the same names atop the leaderboard. Rather than just say the same old thing, let's look at a few names whose red-zone targets are on the move.

Vincent Jackson, WR TB - With Mike Williams no longer a factor, Jackson has seen a tremendous increase in coverage and, therefore, took a serious hit in his red-zone target percentage. But before you panic, keep in mind that the Bucs are in a state of transition, and things should improve over the next week or so. As Mike Glennon gets more comfortable and starts to use Timothy Wright and Tiquan Underwood more, the coverage on Jackson will lighten up a bit, and he'll be back to his usual studly self in no time.

Danny Woodhead, RB SD - With Ryan Mathews coming back to Earth last week, Woodhead saw his workload increase across the board, and he became a bigger factor inside the red zone. His versatility makes him a tremendous threat as he can take the handoff or catch a pass out in the flat and bring either one into the endzone. Expect to see the trend continue this week when the Chargers take on the Broncos and Philip Rivers is forced to throw 40 to 50 times.

Potential Risers (Those who failed to crack the leaderboard this week):

Keenan Allen
Greg Jennings
Rueben Randle
Matt Forte
Jordan Reed
Vernon Davis

Potential Fallers

Julian Edelman
Kenbrell Thompkins
Nate Washington
Jared Cook
Michael Floyd

Week 10 Matchup to Watch

Flip a coin between Denver at San Diego and Dallas at New Orleans. You don't need me to tell you that these two games are filled with must-starts as we're looking at some suspect pass defenses and a whole lot of offensive power. Some obvious favorites include Dez Bryant, Keenan Allen, Antonio Gates and Jason Witten, but keep a lookout for the secondary receivers like Eddie Royal and Terrance Williams as well. We should be looking at a pair of real high-scoring games here, so start your receivers and tight ends with confidence.