This article is part of our On Target series.
We have seen three games played for most teams (minus the Bucs and Dolphins) and are starting to get a clear picture of what NFL teams passing games are going to look like for this season. Most research in FF circles suggests that four games of data tends to be "sticky" (math speak for real or consistent) in terms of projecting volume so with that in mind, let's go through a list of players who are meeting expectations … or not.
Emmanuel Sanders
While I liked Sanders in the offseason, I likely underrated his ability to get open and what that sort of safety valve would mean for a quarterback like Siemian. Demaryius Thomas is one of the best contested catchers in football, BUT a quarterback like Siemian who is trying not to make mistakes is less likely to make those throws. Sanders' shiftiness and ability to lose defenders near the line of scrimmage will make him one of the leading target getters in the NFL this season.
Michael Thomas
Thomas was super quiet for the Saints through two games with no touchdowns, and I think specifically after his quiet Week 1 that sentiment swung against him a little bit but his performance against the Panthers was pretty impressive to me. The return of Willie Snead to the Saints lineup may give you a slight buying window on Thomas especially if he does not score against Miami in the London game Sunday morning. I would be tempted to send out
We have seen three games played for most teams (minus the Bucs and Dolphins) and are starting to get a clear picture of what NFL teams passing games are going to look like for this season. Most research in FF circles suggests that four games of data tends to be "sticky" (math speak for real or consistent) in terms of projecting volume so with that in mind, let's go through a list of players who are meeting expectations … or not.
Emmanuel Sanders
While I liked Sanders in the offseason, I likely underrated his ability to get open and what that sort of safety valve would mean for a quarterback like Siemian. Demaryius Thomas is one of the best contested catchers in football, BUT a quarterback like Siemian who is trying not to make mistakes is less likely to make those throws. Sanders' shiftiness and ability to lose defenders near the line of scrimmage will make him one of the leading target getters in the NFL this season.
Michael Thomas
Thomas was super quiet for the Saints through two games with no touchdowns, and I think specifically after his quiet Week 1 that sentiment swung against him a little bit but his performance against the Panthers was pretty impressive to me. The return of Willie Snead to the Saints lineup may give you a slight buying window on Thomas especially if he does not score against Miami in the London game Sunday morning. I would be tempted to send out some buy-low options.
Todd Gurley
Normally this space is reserved for talking about wide receivers and tight ends, but what is happing with Gurley is really amazing. He was mostly written off after a dramatically inefficient 2016, and I am not going to lie to you, I was one of those people. The injury to Lance Dunbar and the team's complete and total lack of options behind him has led to him having a target share of more than 20 percent in the Rams' offense. A running back with goal-line work and that much passing-down work is a stone cold lock to be an RB1, and that is what Gurley is now.
Terrelle Pryor
I hate to say it, but Pryor just does not seem like a real part of the Washington offense at this point. The Redskins got almost whatever they wanted through the air against Oakland, and Pryor had two receptions for 19 yards. It appears that even though Pryor got a big paycheck, the team is not exactly sure how to use his tremendous physical gifts. Asking Pryor to play like a technical professor of the position is just bad. He should be running 9 routes and post routes, like a bigger and stronger DeSean Jackson, and he just is not being utilized in that function.
Travis Benjamin
With Tyrell Williams looking listless, it has actually been Travis Benjamin who is emerging as a real WR4-ish option as a member of the Los Angeles Chargers. Benjamin is not a real pickup or starting option in a 12-team league but in deeper leagues, I am making a concentrated effort to get him on my teams. He has 14 targets and 299 air yards through three games and a 33 percent market share of the teams' air yards, which I think is noteworthy because, theoretically, Tyrell should be the one in that role and it has not been the case this year for the abysmal Chargers.
Giants Wide Receivers
Odell, Shepard and even the corpse of Brandon Marshall had good games in Week 3 against the Eagles, which was genuinely shocking to me as I really think that Eli is about toast. If you own Marshall in any format, ship him out now for any usable piece; a low-end TE1, a hot waiver-wire pickup RB, anyone that you could see starting at some point. Eli had one of the shortest times from snap to ball release in the NFL last week, which is what he needs to do with the state of the NYG offensive line, but I do not expect him to successfully execute that very many times in 2017. Odell is Odell and Shepard actually looks like someone I would like to own as his game fits better than Marshall's and Evan Engram's in this hurry-up, quick-release offense.
DeVante Parker
Parker is the Dolphins wide receiver that you want to own in fantasy this year. Jarvis Landry might out-target him – in fact, he probably will – but Parker is going to double him up on touchdowns, if not more. Parker has 326 air yards in two games to Landry's 134 and has more PPR points with almost 10 percent less of the Dolphins' target share. Cutler is at this Cutleriest when he is throwing deep balls with reckless abandon, not checking down to a barely open Landry. A low-end WR1 season is in the range of outcomes for Parker given his athletic profile and the quality of the Dolphins as a team (a lot of negative game script, meaning more pass attempts).
Bruce Ellington
The Texans desperately need some other player on offense to emerge next to Deandre Hopkins. Targeting Hopkins on more than 40 percent of their plays was never going to work as a long-term strategy, and in Week 3 their offense looked the best it has in a long time while only giving D-Hop a 24 percent target share. Ellington played 70 or 71 possible snaps and had a 21 percent target share. I don't think the Texans' offense will top 25 points often as it did against the Pats, but with a redistribution of their targets, Ellington looks like a usable deep-league WR4/Flex option.
Doug Baldwin
Seattle finally had an explosive offensive game against the Titans and the largest beneficiary was Doug Baldwin who had 15 targets for 123 air yards and a touchdown, which was a 31 percent target share. As bad as this offensive line is and with a rotating crew of running backs (though Chris Carson definitely does look good), the Seahawks offense and Baldwin in particular have become a little underrated. Russell Wilson is still amazing and Baldwin is definitely his top target. He is another player for whom I would send trade offers this week.
Jordan Matthews
If you take one thing away from this column: send out a super low-ball trade offer for Jordan Matthews. The Buffalo offense has been one of the lowest volume offenses all year, and that is going to see a radical change against Atlanta. Matthews' five targets last week were equivalent to a 19 percent target share of the Bills' offense. Not only do I expect that rate to increase, but this game against Atlanta likely will be Tyrod's heaviest passing volume game of the season, and JMatt is going to be the largest beneficiary. He is a real WR1 waiting to happen and he can be had for free.
