This article is part of our On Target series.
A core difficulty in projecting professional football is that there is a ton of turnover year to year. Strength of schedule is often discussed but also projected incorrectly by a good amount of fantasy analysts. The best way to do it is by relying on Vegas odds and win totals for the upcoming season, as that is based off highly sophisticated computer modeling and also moved by sharp money from people with even more sophisticated models.
For our purposes today, I want to look at some wide receivers who PROJECT to have outlier schedules in 2018. Cornerback play can change a lot from year to year; guys play hurt, get a new defensive coordinator, move into the slot. A lot can change for a cornerback, but by looking at several indicating metrics (DVOA, explosive plays given up, opposing CB matchups), here is a look at five WRs with interesting pass defense/CB matchup slates in 2018.
Dede Westbrook / Marqise Lee, Jacksonville Jaguars
This is cheating a little bit, as Westbrook is likely to play on the inside and Lee is probably going to win the starting job on the outside. As much as I would love to project regression for Blake Bortles and the Jaguars offense in 2018, their schedule lines up to be quite positive. There is nary a shutdown corner in the entire division (other than on their own roster) and Vontae Davis is now gone from the Colts, playing instead for the Buffalo Bills. Per the
A core difficulty in projecting professional football is that there is a ton of turnover year to year. Strength of schedule is often discussed but also projected incorrectly by a good amount of fantasy analysts. The best way to do it is by relying on Vegas odds and win totals for the upcoming season, as that is based off highly sophisticated computer modeling and also moved by sharp money from people with even more sophisticated models.
For our purposes today, I want to look at some wide receivers who PROJECT to have outlier schedules in 2018. Cornerback play can change a lot from year to year; guys play hurt, get a new defensive coordinator, move into the slot. A lot can change for a cornerback, but by looking at several indicating metrics (DVOA, explosive plays given up, opposing CB matchups), here is a look at five WRs with interesting pass defense/CB matchup slates in 2018.
Dede Westbrook / Marqise Lee, Jacksonville Jaguars
This is cheating a little bit, as Westbrook is likely to play on the inside and Lee is probably going to win the starting job on the outside. As much as I would love to project regression for Blake Bortles and the Jaguars offense in 2018, their schedule lines up to be quite positive. There is nary a shutdown corner in the entire division (other than on their own roster) and Vontae Davis is now gone from the Colts, playing instead for the Buffalo Bills. Per the excellent Warren Sharp, the Jaguars are expected to face the easiest offensive schedule in 2018, and the lack of shutdown corners inside their division plays a role in that. Their opponents in 2018 gave up an average of 20.84 fantasy points per game to wide receivers, second most in the NFL. While I don't think that just looking at fantasy points allowed year over year is the end-all be-all, I certainly would rather have a projected easy schedule than a hard one. I was already bullish on Westbrook, but this makes me like him even more.
Julio Jones / Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons
Jones is my No. 2 receiver in fantasy behind Antonio Brown. For whatever reason, this is a controversial opinion despite the fact that Jones has less competition for targets than ever, Matt Ryan has now had a second season to learn with offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian, and no wide receiver has ever massively underperformed their TD expectation the way that Jones did last season. The best cornerback that Jones faces in 2018 is Marshon Lattimore… who he had 5-98 and 7-149 lines against last season. A positive I did not expect to find was that Ridley also faces a fairly soft slate of No. 2 corners, as the Falcons line up against a slate of defenses that allowed over 20 FPPG to wide receivers in 2017. That being said, through 50 or so drafts, I do not think that I have selected Ridley at all. The Falcons use their running backs in the passing game, they will have an expanded role for Austin Hooper, and Ridley has already suffered a hamstring setback and not really drawn rave reviews in camp. I do not mean to pile on, as his draft pedigree clearly shows that the team values him. However, as a fantasy GM, I am not nearly as interested.
Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears
Robinson is a case where just looking at 2017 FPPG allowed to wide receivers for strength of schedule would not be a positive. The list of corners that he has to face inside his own division is actually terrifying: Tramon Williams (PFF's No. 13 corner last season) for Green Bay in addition to the two rookie corners that they drafted, which we discussed last week; Darius Slay in Detroit, who allowed only a 56 percent catch rate in coverage last year while earning PFF's No. 21 pass defense grade; and Minnesota's Xavier Rhodes/Trae Waynes combo. Rhodes gave up only 553 yards in coverage last season and is actually one of my favorite cornerbacks in the NFL, as I think his skill set and athleticism are undervalued. However, outside of those individual cornerback matchups, the Bears project to have the fifth-softest pass defense schedule by success rate allowed (per Warren Sharp), which should really open things up for Trey Burton, Anthony Miller and Tarik Cohen.
Julian Edelman, New England Patriots
Looking at Vegas Win Totals in July, the Patriots actually have the easiest schedule in the NFL. While we normally associate winning games with a "positive" game script that leads to more running, the Patriots usually continue to pass when they have the lead in games, even on first downs. This genuinely sharp coaching move from Bill Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is going to lead to an inflated season from Edelman when he returns from his suspension. All of their efforts to find a replacement for him thus far have not gone well and as of this writing, it looks as if Eric Decker could play in the slot while Edelman is suspended. Chris Hogan actually has a rough slate of in-division corners (the aforementioned Davis, Xavien Howard and a healthy Morris Claiborne), and Rob Gronkowski generally dictates what the safeties will do on any given play. If Edelman is indeed healthy and ready to go after his four-week absence, its probable that he's quite undervalued at current ADP.
Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders
I want to believe; I want to believe so badly. Jon Gruden is hired as his head coach, his primary competition for red-zone targets is now catching passes from Joe Flacco, Derek Carr's broken back is healed. Things should be lining up for Cooper this season… and then Kansas City acquired Kendall Fuller, Pro Football Focus' No. 2 cornerback from 2017 in pass coverage grading, adding to a slate that already featured Los Angeles' Casey Hayward, who was PFF's No. 1 cornerback in 2017. Not to be outdone, Denver has not one, but two cornerbacks who rank inside PFF's top-30 pass coverage grades for all CBs who played 400 or more snaps in 2017. This is a brutal cornerback matchup schedule for Cooper. Outside of games against the Colts and Steelers, it is unclear if he will get any positive WR/CB matchups for the entire season. Beyond his division tilts, he faces Richard Sherman, Denzel Ward (the Browns' new likely No. 1), Patrick Peterson and Jimmy Smith. Honestly, after doing the research for this article, I just moved Cooper down two spots in my own rankings.
