On Target: More Than Just The Looks

No time for pleasantries or clever introductions here as we're getting into some serious crunch time in fantasy football. We're about to hit the halfway point in the NFL season and we're just a few short weeks away from starting the fantasy playoffs. Every decision needs to be well thought out and every roster move has to be made with purpose. With the running back position just a total nightmare this year - and yes, it really is a nightmare - the choices you make at the wide receiver and tight end positions are going to be paramount to your success. Don't mess it up!

As always, let's start with this week's target leaders…

Top Targets from Week 7

No need to go over some of the more prominent names as plenty of these guys already have must-start status each week. But there are still a few names here that command an explanation.

We don't really get a chance to see Mike Wallace here too often and, to me, that's kind of a head-scratcher. Yes, Antonio Brown is the main possession guy, but Ben Roethlisberger needs to incorporate Wallace a little more than he does. Only twice this season has Wallace seen double-digit targets and only once, has he topped 100 yards in a game. A bit disconcerting, but certainly no reason to take him out of your lineup. He still ranks up there in target percentage despite the low amount of targets he gets.

With Santonio Holmes done for the season and Stephen Hill in and out with a lingering hamstring issue, Jeremy Kerley has become the top target for Mark Sanchez these days. Kerley is actually a decent play if you're looking for a third wide receiver or a flex play in deep leagues as he will see plenty of looks moving forward. He may start to lose some to returning tight end Dustin Keller, but he should still see a minimum average of six to eight targets per game.

Brandon Myers is becoming more and more popular in Oakland now that their passing game is starting to blossom. Denarius Moore, Darrius Heyward-Bey and Rod Streater are helping to spread out the field which is giving Myers a little more room in the middle. He also saw three red zone looks this week, which is really what you're hoping for if your tight end doesn't rack up a whole lot of yardage.

Jacksonville wide receiver Cecil Shorts hasn't been seen here since Week 1, but with 10 targets this week, he pops back onto fantasy owners' radar. He's not one to pick up right now, as we need to see how he and new quarterback Chad Henne get along on the field, but if the two continue to build a strong rapport over the next few weeks, he could have some serious value when he gets a stretch beginning in Week 12 when he faces Tennessee, Buffalo and the Jets in consecutive straight weeks.

Nine targets is a season-high for Louis Murphy, but I wouldn't expect that trend to continue. He's still considered fourth on the targets list in Carolina, behind Greg Olsen, Steve Smith and Brandon LaFell. He might get a few targets here and there, but consistency is not likely.
There was so much talk of an improved Larry Fitzgerald with the return of John Skelton, but it was Andre Roberts reaping all the benefits this week. If the Cardinals passing game moves into full-swing soon enough, Roberts could post some seriously big numbers moving forward. Some tough match-ups in the future, for sure, but he is more than capable of doing some damage as the team's number two.

No, that is not a typo – nine targets for Shonn Greene. Don't get used to it though.

And now for the overall…

Target Percentage Leaderboard

Not that it should come as a complete surprise, but for the first time this season, there are no running backs listed here. You would think that we'd see a few more other than what we've had – Darren Sproles, Ray Rice and Darren McFadden -- but there have apparently been fewer designed screen passes this season and a lot more downfield action.

While my faith in Jay Cutler remains limited, at best, you cannot deny that Brandon Marshall has been a huge addition to the Bears offense this season. Of course, any receiver worth his salt would have been an improvement to the Bears passing attack. Still, it doesn't seem to matter who gets him the ball, just so long as it heads his way. He's go the highest target percentage in the league, a fantastic catch rate and he gets plenty of looks in the red zone. He may not get the most yardage out of the receivers, but everything else he does more than makes up for it.
Malcom Floyd is certainly turning into one of the bigger disappointments of the season this year. He's seeing a fair amount of targets but doesn't rack up a whole lot of yardage and zero red zone looks through seven games is totally disconcerting.

Similarly to Floyd, Antonio Brown has been a bit of a problem lately as well. He's putting up about average yardage, but with zero looks inside the redzone, it's going to be awfully hard to use him outside of PPR leagues.

49ers tight end Vernon Davis has seen his target percentage take a significant hit over the last two weeks. After starting the season on fire, he's now averaging less than four targets per game over his last four games and hasn't found the endzone since Week 3. He spoke up a little after Thursday's game putting the onus on offensive coordinator Greg Roman for a lack of ingenuity in the play calling. Opposing defenses are shutting down Davis' normal routes and Roman hasn't rolled with the punches and found alternatives routes for Davis to run just yet. Continue to monitor this situation.

A few weeks ago I mentioned that Brandon LaFell could be someone to target after his bye week as the match-ups looked plenty tasty and he seemed to be improving his route-running. Well, one game past the bye and he's seen a slight boost in targets against a tough Dallas defense and even found the endzone. Two of his next four match-ups come against Washington and Tampa Bay and whil ehe's got a few tough ones on paper, some of these top defenses he's focusing on give a lot of latitude to the number two receiver.

Two of the biggest surprises that sit on this least are: 1. Kendall Wright has managed to maintain his position here on the TPL and continues to get solid looks and 2. Justin Blackmon is still here. It's not that he's seeing an increase in work as it's more of a lack of other viable options in Jacksonville. As for Wright, the guy has been a solid waiver pick-up this year and should actually continue to see strong target numbers in spite of Kenny Britt and Nate Washington.

Just missing the cut this week, but likely to re-appear on the TPL next week include:Ray Rice (16.5%), Scott Chandler (16.4%), Randall Cobb (16.3%), Darren McFadden (16.2), Jeremy Maclin (15.6%), Darren Sproles (15.5%)

TPL Risers to Monitor:Lance Moore, Miles Austin, Leonard Hankerson

TPL Fallers to Monitor:Brandon Lloyd, Andrew Hawkins, Vernon Davis

Week 8 Match-Up to Watch: San Diego Chargers at Cleveland Browns – The Browns pass defense is one of the worst in the league, allowing an average of 277 passing yards per game and a whopping 15 passing touchdowns. This could be the game Philip Rivers has been waiting for which should certainly help things along for Antonio Gates, Malcom Floyd and even Robert Meachem. Meanwhile, the Chargers pass D isn't much stronger, allowing an average of 268 passing yards per game with 14 passing touchdowns allowed. Rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden has built solid rapports with Josh Gordon and Greg Little while he also had a TD pass (though it was negated by a penalty) to tight end Ben Watson.

Week 8 Potential Breakouts:Chris Givens, Kyle Rudolph, Denarius Moore

Week 8 Potential Busts:Santana Moss, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson

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