This article is part of our On Target series.
Once again, it's time to start analyzing those targets. One of the things that you may have noticed, without even looking at the hard data, is that some of those marquee players we drafted in the top five rounds are not seeing the same number of targets this season; at least, not the targets we expected. Vernon Davis seems to be getting phased out of the 49ers passing game while super-studs like Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald just aren't cutting the mustard either. Sure, there are mitigating circumstances surrounding all of them, but the bottom line is that without targets, there will be no fantasy points. Let's take a more in depth look, starting with the top performers from Week 8.
Top Targets from Week 8
| Player Name | Pos | Team | Yards | TD | Pass Att | Targets | Recpt | RZTgts | RZTgt% | Catch % | Target % |
| Jason Witten | TE | DAL | 167 | 0 | 62 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 36.4% | 81.8% | 35.5% |
| Miles Austin | WR | DAL | 133 | 0 | 62 | 16 | 9 | 2 | 18.2% | 56.3% | 25.8% |
| Steve Smith | WR | CAR | 118 | 0 | 39 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 33.3% | 43.8% | 41.0% |
| Brandon Marshall | WR | CHI | 98 | 0 | 28 | 14 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 64.3% | 50.0% |
| Rob Gronkowski | TE | NE | 146 | 2 | 38 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 41.7% | 61.5% | 34.2% |
| Cecil Shorts | WR | JAX | 116 | 0 | 49 | 12 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 66.7% | 24.5% |
| Percy Harvin | WR | MIN | 90 | 1 | 35 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 58.3% | 34.3% |
| Reggie Wayne | WR | IND | 91 | 0 | 38 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 25.0% | 63.6% | 28.9% |
| Clyde Gates | WR | NYJ |
Once again, it's time to start analyzing those targets. One of the things that you may have noticed, without even looking at the hard data, is that some of those marquee players we drafted in the top five rounds are not seeing the same number of targets this season; at least, not the targets we expected. Vernon Davis seems to be getting phased out of the 49ers passing game while super-studs like Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald just aren't cutting the mustard either. Sure, there are mitigating circumstances surrounding all of them, but the bottom line is that without targets, there will be no fantasy points. Let's take a more in depth look, starting with the top performers from Week 8.
Top Targets from Week 8
| Player Name | Pos | Team | Yards | TD | Pass Att | Targets | Recpt | RZTgts | RZTgt% | Catch % | Target % |
| Jason Witten | TE | DAL | 167 | 0 | 62 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 36.4% | 81.8% | 35.5% |
| Miles Austin | WR | DAL | 133 | 0 | 62 | 16 | 9 | 2 | 18.2% | 56.3% | 25.8% |
| Steve Smith | WR | CAR | 118 | 0 | 39 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 33.3% | 43.8% | 41.0% |
| Brandon Marshall | WR | CHI | 98 | 0 | 28 | 14 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 64.3% | 50.0% |
| Rob Gronkowski | TE | NE | 146 | 2 | 38 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 41.7% | 61.5% | 34.2% |
| Cecil Shorts | WR | JAX | 116 | 0 | 49 | 12 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 66.7% | 24.5% |
| Percy Harvin | WR | MIN | 90 | 1 | 35 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 58.3% | 34.3% |
| Reggie Wayne | WR | IND | 91 | 0 | 38 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 25.0% | 63.6% | 28.9% |
| Clyde Gates | WR | NYJ | 82 | 0 | 54 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 12.5% | 63.6% | 20.4% |
| Dustin Keller | TE | NYJ | 67 | 0 | 54 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 12.5% | 63.6% | 20.4% |
| Andre Roberts | WR | ARI | 65 | 0 | 52 | 11 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 63.6% | 21.2% |
| Mike Williams | WR | TB | 68 | 1 | 36 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 37.5% | 54.5% | 30.6% |
| Dez Bryant | WR | DAL | 110 | 0 | 62 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 45.5% | 17.7% |
| Larry Fitzgerald | WR | ARI | 52 | 0 | 52 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 33.3% | 45.5% | 21.2% |
| Jeremy Kerley | WR | NYJ | 43 | 0 | 54 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 12.5% | 45.5% | 20.4% |
| Michael Floyd | WR | ARI | 36 | 0 | 52 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 16.7% | 45.5% | 21.2% |
| Jeremy Maclin | WR | PHI | 33 | 0 | 35 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 25.0% | 60.0% | 28.6% |
| Jimmy Graham | TE | NO | 63 | 1 | 42 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 33.3% | 50.0% | 23.8% |
| Marques Colston | WR | NO | 63 | 0 | 42 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 50.0% | 23.8% |
| Titus Young | WR | DET | 100 | 2 | 49 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 12.5% | 100.0% | 18.4% |
| Demaryius Thomas | WR | DEN | 137 | 1 | 30 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 33.3% | 77.8% | 30.0% |
| James Jones | WR | GB | 78 | 0 | 36 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 20.0% | 77.8% | 25.0% |
| Brandon Pettigrew | TE | DET | 74 | 0 | 49 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 25.0% | 77.8% | 18.4% |
| Mike Wallace | WR | PIT | 62 | 0 | 33 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 28.6% | 77.8% | 27.3% |
| Darren Sproles | RB | NO | 56 | 1 | 42 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 66.7% | 77.8% | 21.4% |
| Wes Welker | WR | NE | 48 | 0 | 38 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 16.7% | 66.7% | 23.7% |
| Michael Jenkins | WR | MIN | 78 | 0 | 35 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 44.4% | 25.7% |
| Davone Bess | WR | MIA | 28 | 0 | 24 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 44.4% | 37.5% |
| Santana Moss | WR | WAS | 21 | 1 | 34 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 22.2% | 44.4% | 26.5% |
The Giants pass defense is normally strong against opposing tight ends, so one of the biggest surprises this week was not only that Jason Witten had such a productive game, but that he took such a high percentage of targets throughout the game. Granted, Tony Romo throwing 62 times in a game, you're bound to see some outlandish numbers, but it was interesting to see him go back to the way things were a couple of years ago when it was Romo to Witten all day long. We'll have to see how long this lasts, but next week against Atlanta is supposed to be another tough one for the tight end position.
While I wish I believed in Blaine Gabbert a little more, I am definitely starting to be a believer in Cecil Shorts. This makes two weeks in a row that he is found on the weekly targets leaderboard and he now has 188 yards and a touchdown in that span. He still doesn't get any looks in the red zone, but that might just be more because the Jaguars themselves have a tough time getting into the red zone, let alone getting anyone some looks in there.
I have zero faith in Clyde Gates lasting in this section beyond this article, however, you can probably get used to seeing Dustin Keller's name here quite often. The Jets tight end is not only healthy, but also still a favorite of Mark Sanchez in the passing game. He should continue to rack up some decent catches and yards moving forward and will undoubtedly also find his way into the end zone.
Similarly to Gates, I have no faith in Michael Floyd lasting here either. He's definitely got talent, but with Fitzgerald and Andre Roberts leading the charge, Floyd will be more of a contingency plan. His spot here can be attributed to the complete absence of a running game against the Niners this week.
And finally, while Calvin Johnson's struggles continue, we may be witnessing a Titus Young breakout. With Nate Burleson lost for the season and Megatron looking more like Minitron, Young has a golden opportunity to step it up here and become a serious fantasy player. He'll lose a few looks to newcomer Ryan Broyles, but after a game like this week, he will definitely warrant a spot in several lineups next week against Jacksonville.
Now let's get to the overall…
Target Percentage Leaderboard
| Player Name | Pos | Team | Yards | TD | Pass Att | Targets | Recpt | RZTgts | RZTgt% | Catch % | Target % |
| Brandon Marshall | WR | CHI | 675 | 4 | 216 | 80 | 50 | 11 | 47.8% | 62.5% | 37.0% |
| Reggie Wayne | WR | IND | 757 | 2 | 288 | 92 | 54 | 9 | 28.1% | 58.7% | 31.9% |
| Percy Harvin | WR | MIN | 667 | 3 | 262 | 79 | 60 | 3 | 9.4% | 75.9% | 30.2% |
| Victor Cruz | WR | NYG | 650 | 7 | 296 | 89 | 52 | 13 | 26.5% | 58.4% | 30.1% |
| A.J. Green | WR | CIN | 636 | 7 | 244 | 73 | 44 | 11 | 39.3% | 60.3% | 29.9% |
| Vincent Jackson | WR | TB | 626 | 5 | 223 | 66 | 29 | 13 | 36.1% | 43.9% | 29.6% |
| Steve Johnson | WR | BUF | 387 | 4 | 219 | 64 | 32 | 7 | 30.4% | 50.0% | 29.2% |
| Steve Smith | WR | CAR | 589 | 0 | 216 | 63 | 35 | 5 | 16.1% | 55.6% | 29.2% |
| Dwayne Bowe | WR | KC | 492 | 3 | 251 | 72 | 37 | 3 | 25.0% | 51.4% | 28.7% |
| Larry Fitzgerald | WR | ARI | 511 | 3 | 309 | 85 | 45 | 13 | 25.0% | 52.9% | 27.5% |
| Calvin Johnson | WR | DET | 638 | 1 | 276 | 75 | 41 | 9 | 16.7% | 54.7% | 27.2% |
| Brian Hartline | WR | MIA | 555 | 1 | 222 | 59 | 33 | 9 | 26.5% | 55.9% | 26.6% |
| Wes Welker | WR | NE | 736 | 2 | 323 | 83 | 60 | 8 | 15.4% | 72.3% | 25.7% |
| Michael Crabtree | WR | SF | 440 | 3 | 218 | 55 | 39 | 3 | 15.8% | 70.9% | 25.2% |
| Davone Bess | WR | MIA | 416 | 0 | 222 | 56 | 32 | 3 | 8.8% | 57.1% | 25.2% |
| Jason Witten | TE | DAL | 487 | 1 | 293 | 70 | 51 | 7 | 21.9% | 72.9% | 23.9% |
| Antonio Brown | WR | PIT | 480 | 1 | 268 | 63 | 40 | 0 | 0.0% | 63.5% | 23.5% |
| DeSean Jackson | WR | PHI | 524 | 1 | 266 | 62 | 34 | 5 | 20.0% | 54.8% | 23.3% |
| Eric Decker | WR | DEN | 484 | 5 | 257 | 59 | 38 | 12 | 28.6% | 64.4% | 23.0% |
| Andre Johsnon | WR | HOU | 444 | 2 | 227 | 52 | 34 | 3 | 15.8% | 65.4% | 22.9% |
| Julio Jones | WR | ATL | 499 | 5 | 265 | 59 | 35 | 10 | 26.3% | 59.3% | 22.3% |
| Tony Gonzalez | TE | ATL | 459 | 4 | 265 | 59 | 46 | 5 | 13.2% | 78.0% | 22.3% |
| Demaryius Thomas | WR | DEN | 679 | 4 | 257 | 57 | 39 | 6 | 14.3% | 68.4% | 22.2% |
| Marques Colston | WR | NO | 580 | 5 | 319 | 70 | 40 | 15 | 30.6% | 57.1% | 21.9% |
| Sidney Rice | WR | SEA | 367 | 3 | 210 | 46 | 28 | 8 | 24.2% | 60.9% | 21.9% |
| Mike Wallace | WR | PIT | 459 | 4 | 268 | 58 | 36 | 10 | 22.7% | 62.1% | 21.6% |
| Roddy White | WR | ATL | 591 | 4 | 265 | 57 | 40 | 8 | 21.1% | 70.2% | 21.5% |
| Brandon Lloyd | WR | NE | 435 | 3 | 323 | 69 | 37 | 11 | 21.2% | 53.6% | 21.4% |
| Dez Bryant | WR | DAL | 488 | 2 | 293 | 62 | 41 | 6 | 18.8% | 66.1% | 21.2% |
| Owen Daniels | TE | HOU | 416 | 4 | 227 | 48 | 33 | 4 | 21.1% | 68.8% | 21.1% |
| Mike Williams | WR | TB | 436 | 4 | 223 | 47 | 25 | 8 | 22.2% | 53.2% | 21.1% |
| Donnie Avery | WR | IND | 346 | 1 | 288 | 60 | 29 | 6 | 18.8% | 48.3% | 20.8% |
| Brandon Pettigrew | TE | DET | 374 | 1 | 276 | 57 | 38 | 7 | 13.0% | 66.7% | 20.7% |
| Anquan Boldin | WR | BAL | 453 | 1 | 255 | 52 | 31 | 4 | 18.2% | 59.6% | 20.4% |
| Greg Olsen | TE | CAR | 347 | 1 | 216 | 44 | 29 | 7 | 22.6% | 65.9% | 20.4% |
| Kendall Wright | WR | TEN | 351 | 3 | 296 | 60 | 40 | 9 | 23.7% | 66.7% | 20.3% |
| Miles Austin | WR | DAL | 561 | 4 | 293 | 59 | 34 | 7 | 21.9% | 57.6% | 20.1% |
| Rob Gronkowski | TE | NE | 580 | 7 | 323 | 64 | 43 | 14 | 26.9% | 67.2% | 19.8% |
| Andre Roberts | WR | ARI | 454 | 5 | 309 | 61 | 36 | 5 | 9.6% | 59.0% | 19.7% |
| Justin Blackmon | WR | JAX | 193 | 0 | 229 | 45 | 18 | 2 | 7.1% | 40.0% | 19.7% |
| Dennis Pitta | TE | BAL | 276 | 2 | 255 | 50 | 30 | 7 | 31.8% | 60.0% | 19.6% |
| Danny Amendola | WR | STL | 395 | 2 | 252 | 49 | 32 | 6 | 25.0% | 65.3% | 19.4% |
| Torrey Smith | WR | BAL | 435 | 4 | 255 | 49 | 25 | 2 | 9.1% | 51.0% | 19.2% |
| Jordy Nelson | WR | GB | 532 | 5 | 300 | 57 | 40 | 8 | 20.0% | 70.2% | 19.0% |
| Denarius Moore | WR | OAK | 419 | 4 | 269 | 51 | 26 | 11 | 28.2% | 51.0% | 19.0% |
| Malcom Floyd | WR | SD | 461 | 1 | 243 | 46 | 29 | 0 | 0.0% | 63.0% | 18.9% |
| James Jones | WR | GB | 401 | 7 | 300 | 56 | 36 | 11 | 27.5% | 64.3% | 18.7% |
| Jeremy Kerley | WR | NYJ | 478 | 2 | 275 | 51 | 30 | 7 | 20.6% | 58.8% | 18.5% |
| Brent Celek | TE | PHI | 389 | 1 | 266 | 48 | 28 | 6 | 24.0% | 58.3% | 18.0% |
| Kyle Rudolph | TE | MIN | 242 | 5 | 262 | 47 | 27 | 9 | 28.1% | 57.4% | 17.9% |
| Heath Miller | TE | PIT | 336 | 6 | 268 | 48 | 35 | 16 | 36.4% | 72.9% | 17.9% |
| Cecil Shorts | WR | JAX | 400 | 3 | 229 | 41 | 20 | 5 | 17.9% | 48.8% | 17.9% |
| Jermaine Gresham | TE | CIN | 325 | 2 | 244 | 43 | 28 | 5 | 17.9% | 65.1% | 17.6% |
| Jeremy Maclin | WR | PHI | 328 | 3 | 266 | 46 | 26 | 6 | 24.0% | 56.5% | 17.3% |
| Michael Jenkins | WR | MIN | 287 | 1 | 262 | 45 | 24 | 0 | 0.0% | 53.3% | 17.2% |
| Mario Manningham | WR | SF | 278 | 1 | 218 | 37 | 28 | 4 | 21.1% | 75.7% | 17.0% |
| Andrew Hawkins | WR | CIN | 346 | 2 | 244 | 41 | 27 | 3 | 10.7% | 65.9% | 16.8% |
| Darren McFadden | RB | OAK | 190 | 0 | 269 | 45 | 29 | 5 | 12.8% | 64.4% | 16.7% |
| Randall Cobb | WR | GB | 463 | 4 | 300 | 50 | 42 | 6 | 15.0% | 84.0% | 16.7% |
| Brandon Gibson | WR | STL | 381 | 2 | 252 | 42 | 28 | 3 | 12.5% | 66.7% | 16.7% |
The first thing that I notice this week is the rise of Percy Harvin. Sure, he's been amongst the top 10 in target percentage for most of the season, but with the yardage he is also racking up, he is really establishing himself as one of the game's top performers. If he only saw a few more looks inside the red zone, he'd be absolutely perfect.
Tampa Bay wideout Mike Williams is really starting to make a climb here. Not only is he seeing more targets, but he's also getting a few extra red zone looks as well. Vincent Jackson owners should take notice, as most of Williams' targets in recent weeks have come at the expense of Jackson's work with the team. Jackson won't be phased out, but with a more spread-out passing game, his chances of another 200-plus yard game have greatly diminished.
In addition to the aforementioned Vernon Davis, there are a few other tight ends who are seeing their target percentage drop. The Ravens' Dennis Pitta definitely leads the way, but Carolina's Greg Olsen, San Diego's Antonio Gates and Denver's Jacob Tamme are all seeing a reduction in work.
While Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker continue to compete for Peyton Manning's attention on the field, I'm noticing that as Decker is seeing an overall increase of targets, Thomas is starting to see more red zone work. Between this group and that of the Falcons, I can't to see the numbers as to who might be the most balanced passing attack in the game.
I am not only going to stand by my claim, but reiterate it once again, that you might want to consider shopping Wes Welker. Even with Aaron Hernandez out of action, Welker saw fewer targets this past week and is likely to continue a slight downward trend. Opposing defenses are keying in on him while guys like Rob Gronkowski and Brandon Lloyd are stealing most of Tom Brady's attention.
Another faller in the TPL you may want to consider dumping has been Miami receiver Brian Hartline. With the absence of quarterback Ryan Tannehill, Davone Bess seems to be getting a majority of the looks. After averaging almost 12 targets a game through the first four weeks of the season, he is now averaging less than four targets per game over his last three.
Just Missing the Cut This Week:Vernon Davis (16.5%), Darren Sproles (16.3%), Lance Moore (16.6%), Jimmy Graham (16.3%), Brandon LaFell (16.9%), Leonard Hankerson (16.1%)
TPL Risers to Monitor:Davone Bess, Cecil Shorts, Mario Manningham
TPL Fallers to Monitor:Greg Olsen, Dez Bryant, Vincent Jackson
Week 9 Match-Up to Watch: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Oakland Raiders – It's always fun, and makes for great fantasy point potential, when you have two mediocre-to-poor pass defenses matching up while respective offenses seem to be on the rise. Josh Freeman has been lighting is up for the Bucs lately while utilizing Mike Williams, Tiquan Underwood and even Dallas Clark a little more. The Raiders pass defense has allowed an average of just 236 passing yards per game, but they've given up 12 passing touchdowns and have little or no pass rush to pressure Freeman. Meanwhile, Carson Palmer and Denarius Moore have rekindled their bromance while Darrius Heyward-Bey, Brandon Myers and even Rod Streater are looking good lately. They get the pleasure of facing an atrocious Bucs pass D that has allowed an average of 310 passing yards per game with nine touchdowns.
Potential Week 9 Breakouts:Darrius Heyward-Bey, Alshon Jeffery, Brandon LaFell
Potential Week 9 Busts:Steven Johnson, Jason Witten, Percy Harvin
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Have a question or need some advice from Howard Bender? Follow @rotobuzzguy on Twitter, or feel free to e-mail him at [email protected]
