On Target: More Than Just The Looks

With the fantasy regular season coming to a close, it's as important as ever to make sure you're using the right receivers in your starting lineup. For many, Week 13 presents a "win and you're in" scenario, while others are fighting for a better seeding in the upcoming playoffs. Not to mention, there's probably a ton of pride riding on your league, so even if you're out of contention, nothing says, "I love you, man," more than playing spoiler and knocking your buddy out of the playoffs with a late-season victory. While most that are headed to the postseason are locked in with some of the top wideouts and tight ends, there are still numerous situations being affected by injuries and production. So let's take a look at who the big guns were this past week...

Top Targets for Week 12

As we stated early in the season, it was just a matter of time before the cream rose to the top, and Week 12 added credence to that belief. Brandon Marshall, Calvin Johnson and Andre Johnson led the way in targets this week with Jason Witten and Steve Johnson right behind - none of which should be a surprise. Brandon Pettigrew's lofty standing on the weekly leaderboard was unexpected, but he always has been somewhat of a favorite for Mathew Stafford. As you scroll down the rest of the list, you'll find plenty of names out there that you would expect to see, including Reggie Wayne, Larry Fitzgerald, Dwayne Bowe and Wes Welker to name a few. Bottom line: when it comes down to it, it's all about reliability and these guys rarely let you down.

Cole Beasley appears to be the new Kevin Ogletree (remember him and all those wasted waiver claims?) in Dallas after racking up 13 targets on Thanksgiving, which included one red zone look. But are we looking to add him to our fantasy rosters, people? No, we are not. The Redskins pass defense has more holes in it than the story my nephew gave regarding the juice stain on my carpet, so even a backup to Miles Austin (strained hip flexor) is capable of getting open. Austin is still questionable for Week 13, but against a tougher Eagles defense, look for Tony Romo to rely on Witten and Dez Bryant a lot more than the third and fourth options.

Not only was it great to see Eli Manning get back to business, it was great seeing Hakeem Nicks serve as a focal point in the passing game. He racked up double-digit targets for the second game in a row, and the half dozen red zone looks he got foreshadow good things to come when the Giants play Washington and New Orleans over the next two weeks.

It could be time for Ryan Broyles to send a thank you note to Titus Young as the former racked up a dozen targets and came away with six catches for 126 yards on Thanksgiving. Granted, the 50 percent catch rate leaves something to be desired, but if you watched that game while cramming some candied yams in your face, you'd have noticed that Stafford wasn't the most accurate on that day. Rumor has it that Jim Schwartz is looking to extend Young's suspension, which would certainly put Broyles in line for another big game this week when the Lions face the Colts.

With the Cardinals' QB situation in such disarray, look for tight end Rob Housler to continue seeing decent target numbers as Ryan Lindley,or Kevin Kolb, or whomever is under center leans on the short passing game a little more. This week's opponent, the Jets, have given up more fantasy points to tight ends than all but six teams.

Another Cardinal to keep an eye on, particularly if you have a flex spot to fill in your lineup, could be William Powell. Again, with Lindley under center, there should be a lot of screen work and check-downs, and Powell could be supplanting LaRod Stephens-Howling (ribs) as the team's third-down back. I wouldn't go rushing out to grab him just yet, but put him on your watch list.

While Jarius Wright saw plenty of work, remember that it was in the absence of Percy Harvin, who was dealing with a knee issue. Wright certainly has talent, but will go back to being the team's number three receiver when Harvin gets back. Keep an eye on him though as Jerome Simpson isn't exactly lighting it up as the team's number two wideout.

For the second week in a row, Miami's Davone Bess saw more targets than teammate Brian Hartline. Bess is gradually becoming the top option for rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill. In fact, if you look at the overall Target Percentage Leaderboard below, you'll see that the gap in target percentage between the two receivers is getting smaller and smaller each week.

Tiquan Underwood makes his second appearance here this season, which should tell you already that he's not really an option for most. However, Mike Williams has seen his targets diminish over the past few weeks, so Underwood, with the right matchup, could end up being a sneaky play.

And finally, it would appear that we have a new number two in Cincinnati as Mohamed Sanu has supplanted the banged up Andrew Hawkins. Sanu is more of a possession receiver, but he's the guy getting the red zone targets as defenses try to neutralize A.J. Green and Jermaine Gresham once the Bengals get inside the 10.

Now let's take a look at the overall...

Target Percentage Leaderboard

There really hasn't been much movement in the top half of the TPL over the last few weeks as, again, the cream has risen to the top. We all know who the big favorites are, so let's concentrate a little further down as there is definitely some movement to be monitored.

One of the important things to keep in mind is the number of quarterback changes we've seen. I'm pretty sure I stated this a week or two ago, but it definitely bears another mention – backup quarterbacks tend to rely a little heavier on the secondary receivers. Let's face it, for timing purposes, who does the backup throw to in practice all the time? San Francisco's Colin Kaepernick has leaned on Mario Manningham and Delaine Walker a little more than they are used to; and while neither has cracked the TPL just yet, Manningham just barely missed the cut. Cecil Shorts continues to climb up the TPL as Chad Henne uses him fairly often on deep passes. With DeSean Jackson landing on IR, and Nick Foles likely to remain the starter, Riley Cooper and Damaris Johnson could surprise this week.

Conversely, you have to expect that a number of receivers will continue to fall due to the same situation. Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree are already starting to fall, while Mike Wallace and Heath Miller are feeling the effects of a Charlie Batch-led offense. For their sake, hopefully Ben Roethlisberger returns this week.

Independent of quarterback issues, although Steve Smith owners may disagree, it's nice to see Brandon LaFell creep back into the TPL last week and then see an increase this week. Carolina has some decent matchups coming up, so if Cam Newton doesn't decide to run every play, LaFell could turn into a sweet third option for you PPR folks.

And finally, look for Greg Jennings to return to action when the Packers take on the Vikings this week. He may not come out of the gate white hot, but you can probably expect a decrease in targets for Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and James Jones moving forward. Jones has already disappeared into the night –even though his early season targets have kept him afloat on the TPL over the last few weeks – but if Jennings is healthy and gets back into his old routine with Aaron Rodgers, you can probably say bye-bye to Cobb's value as well.

Just Missing the Cut This Week:Josh Morgan (16.5%), Lance Moore (16.3%), Brandon Myers (16.2%), Mario Manningham (16.2%), Nate Washington (16.0%)

TPL Risers to Monitor:Davone Bess, Andre Roberts, Torrey Smith
TPL Fallers to Monitor:Mike Williams, Vernon Davis, James Jones

Week 13 Matchup to Watch: New York Giants at Washington Redskins – What's not to love about this matchup? The Redskins have the 31st ranked pass defense and have allowed 23 passing touchdowns to go along with an average of 301 passing yards per game. With Eli Manning back in form and Hakeem Nicks healthy, things are going to open up even more for the Giants passing attack. Victor Cruz remains a must-start and Martellus Bennett should be let loose as the Skins rank a poor 24th in the league against opposing tight ends. For Washington, it's Robert Griffin III facing a pass defense that ranks just 25th in the league, allowing an average of 253 yards per game as well as 18 passing touchdowns this season. Santana Moss and a now healthy Pierre Garcon might be doing a little more en dzone dancing than Tom Coughlin would like.

Potential Week 13 Breakouts:Eric Decker, Josh Gordon, Martellus Bennett
Potential Week 13 Busts:Danny Amendola, Torrey Smith, Dustin Keller

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Have a question or need some advice from Howard Bender? Follow @rotobuzzguy on Twitter, or feel free to e-mail him at [email protected]