This article is part of our On Target series.
We are back for another year of On Target; in this space every week, we will analyze a variety of pass catchers. Wide receivers, tight ends and even pass catching running backs will all be fair game for analysis in this column.
Week 1 is probably the most interesting for projection because we have so little to go off of. We have convinced ourselves all offseason that we know exactly what will happen over the course of the year and in the first games of the season, but there will be developments we can't possibly see unfolding in every game. With that in mind, let's take a look at a group of players to monitor in the first games of the season.
The Chiefs Wide Receiver Trio
Albert Wilson, Chris Conley, and Tyreek Hill are all talented wide receivers. Wilson was a productive small-school wide receiver who fits in the Jeremy Maclin sort of mold, but he saw only 51 targets last year. Conley almost broke my athletic models when he came into the league from Georgia but much like Wilson, has only 61 receptions to his name. Perhaps the largest mystery is Hill, who could either be one of the most over-drafted players of the offseason or a screaming value. Watching the snaps played, target distribution and average depth of targets for these three is what will be most interesting to me Thursday night.
Despite being almost prodigiously untalented, Wright has himself positioned as a
We are back for another year of On Target; in this space every week, we will analyze a variety of pass catchers. Wide receivers, tight ends and even pass catching running backs will all be fair game for analysis in this column.
Week 1 is probably the most interesting for projection because we have so little to go off of. We have convinced ourselves all offseason that we know exactly what will happen over the course of the year and in the first games of the season, but there will be developments we can't possibly see unfolding in every game. With that in mind, let's take a look at a group of players to monitor in the first games of the season.
The Chiefs Wide Receiver Trio
Albert Wilson, Chris Conley, and Tyreek Hill are all talented wide receivers. Wilson was a productive small-school wide receiver who fits in the Jeremy Maclin sort of mold, but he saw only 51 targets last year. Conley almost broke my athletic models when he came into the league from Georgia but much like Wilson, has only 61 receptions to his name. Perhaps the largest mystery is Hill, who could either be one of the most over-drafted players of the offseason or a screaming value. Watching the snaps played, target distribution and average depth of targets for these three is what will be most interesting to me Thursday night.
Despite being almost prodigiously untalented, Wright has himself positioned as a great waiver-wire pickup in 14 and 16-team leagues and a fine daily fantasy play for Week 1. Kevin White is 25 years old, did not play at all in his rookie season and was active for only four games last season. The team has plenty of reason to try and see what they have in White but coaches and, more importantly, bad quarterbacks, rarely see things in that paradigm. Wright knows how to run basic routes and has a high catch rate as his aDOT would suggest.
In one of the smaller shocks of the offseason, Kearse is now probably the most talented wide receiver on the Jets roster. Robby Anderson did generate an average depth of target of over 16 yards last year with mostly Bryce Petty as his quarterback, but Kearse has a meaningful sample of performing well on limited targets. I am rather interested to see how he does in his new role and to see how the Jets target share as a whole plays out. The team will be trailing for most, if not all, of their games in 2017 and as such, should have a decent passing volume.
Pryor was second in the NFL in Air Yards last season and was one of the most efficient players at turning targets inside the 10-yard line into touchdowns, and he now gets a major upgrade at quarterback, coach (sorry, Hue) and surrounding offensive counterparts. I have long been a believer in Pryor's physical ability, and now with another year of WR seasoning under his belt, the ceiling for him seems quite high. Washington lost both of their top target-getters from last season and brought in only Pryor (while internally hoping Josh Doctson can be a huge part of their offense), signaling that they too are expecting big things.
The Rams will actually be favored in this game against the Colts, one of the few times that will happen all year. In what is actually a plus matchup for Watkins, we should be interested to see what Jared Goff is able to do with the pressure off. Watkins' physical talents never manifested into consistency with the Bills but with a heavy volume in LA, that could change. Additionally, if Cooper Kupp gets starter's snaps and targets, he is a great add in deeper leagues.
Agholor was bad, no, deplorable, last season. However, Alshon Jeffery is expected to be shadowed by Josh Norman throughout the Eagles' Week 1 tilt, which should free up Agholor for some cheap targets against the overall not-great Washington secondary. I don't think that I have the stones to start him in all but the deepest leagues or do anything other than roster him in massive field GPPs, but if he looks serviceable, there should be targets for him over the rest of the season.
There were times last year when Jeremy Kerley was playable in daily fantasy and in deeper leagues; Goodwin will be in for a similar target load but should have a much greater depth of target. With apologies to Colin Kaepernick, Brian Hoyer's baseline of competency should create a slightly more healthy fantasy environment for the 49ers in 2017. Goodwin was basically never good in Buffalo but with an excess of 80 targets, he could have a usable number of touchdowns.
With Will Fuller injured and Jaelen Strong suspended, the former Ohio State QB-turned-WR should have a full opportunity to prove he is capable of being a larger part of the Texans offense. It might be the wide-eyed optimist in me, but I tend to think players like Miller have a place in the NFL and will make it work whatever their positional designation. Strong and Fuller are fairly talented and will not be easily displaced so I'm not saying to go all in Miller over the course of the year, but I am putting out some cautious optimism.
Tyler Lockett vs. Paul Richardson
Lockett is just better than Richardson is; I am not sure if Pete Carroll believes this, or if one year of data in 2017 will bear that out, but I am utterly confident in this belief. Lockett already has meaningful NFL moments both as a returner and receiver and his game-breaking agility did not disappear overnight. Richardson does not look or play like a player destined for a successful 100-target NFL season, whereas Lockett fits a needed NFL role.
