On Target: Situations To Monitor in Week 1

The last six months of prognosticating and projecting have been a lot of fun, but at some point we have to admit: it is conjecture. The best laid plans of mice and men often go awry, and nowhere is that more true than when you try and predict to the decimal point the outcome of a game centered around 92 uniformed men playing with an oblong leather ball. There is a lot that we do not and will not know until these teams take the field Thursday, Sunday and Monday. With that concept in mind, these are assorted passing volume situations I am monitoring in Week 1 that have the ability to influence the fantasy football sphere moving forward.

The Cleveland Browns Passing Game

The offense in Cleveland will be almost brand new this season. They have a new offensive coordinator, two new quarterbacks, three new wide receivers (when you count the fact that Josh Gordon barely played/was barely with the team last season), and an athletic freak of a tight end who they will now deploy as a starter. As I mentioned in last week's On Target, I am concerned with the potential volume for Jarvis Landry as his fantasy value is heavily reliant on said volume. Gordon is reportedly not starting and will play behind Antonio Callaway to begin with, but that could be a single series sort of deal from Hue Jackson. What I am looking for specifically in the game against the Steelers is: Will Landry play outside more than half of his snaps? What is Gordon's average depth of target compared to Callaway and Landry? How many snaps will David Njoku play as opposed to Seth DeValve or blocking tight end Darren Fells? The answers to all of these questions can really clarify how we should value the individual pieces of this offense moving forward.

New Orleans Saints No. 2 Wide Receiver Rotation

We know that Michael Thomas will have one of the most dominant market shares in the NFL, and will hover at about 25-28 percent of the Saints' passing targets in any given week. Alvin Kamara will also have stable and predictable volume coming out of the backfield for Drew Brees; outside of that, we know very little. As it stands on September 6th, it appears that Ted Ginn will be lining up as a starter opposite Thomas. After that, it is unclear if Cameron Meredith or Tre'Quan Smith will play more often in the slot or rotating with Ginn. Furthermore, Ben Watson is returning to the Saints at an advanced age and it would not be surprising if he splits snaps at tight end with Josh Hill. Most important is the rotation between Ginn, Meredith and Smith; fantasy owners should pay special attention to that battle.

Denver Broncos Slot Wide Receiver

There were reports on both side of the coin this offseason, suggesting that Demaryius Thomas would play more in the slot and also that Emmanuel Sanders would play more there. In the preseason, it looked as if the reports about Sanders being in the slot proved true, but I have learned better than to take the preseason as gospel. If both of them see more snaps in the slot than the other, that is notable and it means that Courtland Sutton is likely a starter in this offense, but it also adds to their value. Sanders is a more prototypical slot WR but Thomas has it in him to play something of a Larry Fitzgerald role, and if he sees more than 25 percent of his snaps there, it is a trend worth paying attention to.

Miami Dolphins Target Distribution and Slot Playing Time

Much like the Browns, the 2018 Dolphins are almost unrecognizable compared to the 2017 Dolphins. They will have a different QB, their most targeted WR of the last two seasons is gone, they have a different starting tight end, and they brought in two highly-paid free agent wide receivers in Danny Amendola and Albert Wilson. Wilson is making more money than Amendola but both of them are true slot-only wide receivers, which made signing both somewhat baffling. Whoever plays in the slot in this offense is inheriting a role that made Jarvis Landry a bonafide stud while not being a game-breaking player, and they're likely to be a top-24 WR in PPR this season.

Who is the Colts No. 2 WR? Do They Have One?

It is fairly fascinating that a team with a legitimately horrible defense (the Colts have the least amount of cap dollars dedicated to the defense of all 32 NFL teams) does not have a No. 2 WR going in the top 150 of players drafted in fantasy. Normally, opportunity equates to fantasy points, and even if you give 150 targets to Hilton, 100 to each of the tight ends and 100 to the running backs, you're still only at 450 attempts. Andrew Luck has to be a favorite to throw the most passes in football with an unstable offensive line and cadre of unproven running backs, so someone out of Ryan Grant, Chester Rogers or even Zach Pascal is going to get a fantasy-relevant number of targets.

Dallas No. 1 WR

It is an open question to who will play more between Allen Hurns and Michael Gallup. The teams' first "unofficial depth chart" has Hurns and Terrance Williams listed as starters with Gallup as a backup, but that arrangement sticking for longer than even a quarter doesn't seem highly likely. The rookie is more likely to begin rotating with Williams while Cole Beasley dominates slot snaps, but Gallup is also younger, more athletic and seemingly a better player than former UDFA Hurns. If he out-targets Hurns in Week 1, the training wheels will be off and the trend should continue.