This article is part of our On Target series.
The fantasy football community has gotten so much more intelligent over the last five years, as Daily Fantasy has really helped us hone in on the information that is important. On my podcast (The Taekcast, which can be found on iTunes), a recent guest remarked to me that basically no analyst can get by on "gut feel" anymore, which is true. We are all chasing data, and the data we have found to be most predictive has been opportunity. As such, I think even from a small Week 1 sample, there are volume situations for us to take notice of and use in an actionable way.
Indianapolis Colts Passing Offense
Andrew Luck had the third-lowest average intended depth of target (essentially aDOT, with passes thrown away removed from the equation) against the Bengals in Week 1. This does shift my volume expectation for this offense after entering the season assuming that T.Y. Hilton had a shot at a truly gargantuan target share. That will not prove to be true with Ryan Grant actually leading the team in targets last week, and both Nyheim Hines and Jack Doyle acting like safety valves in the short and intermediate areas of the field. Hines seemed like an afterthought heading into the season, but if he retains this Darren Sproles-esque role, I expect him to be a PPR flex play on most weeks. There is also room for Chester Rogers' role to grow as he played a majority of the
The fantasy football community has gotten so much more intelligent over the last five years, as Daily Fantasy has really helped us hone in on the information that is important. On my podcast (The Taekcast, which can be found on iTunes), a recent guest remarked to me that basically no analyst can get by on "gut feel" anymore, which is true. We are all chasing data, and the data we have found to be most predictive has been opportunity. As such, I think even from a small Week 1 sample, there are volume situations for us to take notice of and use in an actionable way.
Indianapolis Colts Passing Offense
Andrew Luck had the third-lowest average intended depth of target (essentially aDOT, with passes thrown away removed from the equation) against the Bengals in Week 1. This does shift my volume expectation for this offense after entering the season assuming that T.Y. Hilton had a shot at a truly gargantuan target share. That will not prove to be true with Ryan Grant actually leading the team in targets last week, and both Nyheim Hines and Jack Doyle acting like safety valves in the short and intermediate areas of the field. Hines seemed like an afterthought heading into the season, but if he retains this Darren Sproles-esque role, I expect him to be a PPR flex play on most weeks. There is also room for Chester Rogers' role to grow as he played a majority of the teams' slot snaps.
Julio Down By The School Yard
I came into the season expecting Julio Jones to return first-round value and be the second-best wide receiver in fantasy. What I saw Thursday night against the Eagles not only backed up that idea but showed that he actually has the ability to be the top overall pass catcher in fantasy. Jones saw 20 targets from Matt Ryan; no one else on the Falcons had more than six, and rookie wide receiver Calvin Ridley (who starts opposite Julio) saw only two targets. After one game, Jones leads the NFL in expected fantasy points and also total Air Yards. This is a potential 2,000-yard season for Jones waiting to happen (no hyperbole), and if the Falcons figure out their red-zone offense, we are on the verge of a historic fantasy season.
Babytron, as he is affectionately known on football twitter, by far led the Lions in Air Yards in their Monday Night contest against the Jets and looked marvelous doing it. We sort of intuitively knew that with Golladay replacing Marvin Jones in two-WR sets, the second-year receiver had a much higher game-to-game floor than Jones, and we saw that almost immediately. The 6-4, 218 pound sophomore from Northern Illinois had a 30 percent market share of the team's Air Yards and is likely to be more a more efficient red-zone weapon than anyone else on the team. I am making Golladay a trade target in all of my leagues.
Chicago Bears Passing Distribution
After the opening two drives, where the Bears looked like the new Greatest Show On Barely-Playable Grass, the offense went sideways, backwards, any direction but forward. This resulted in poor games for Trey Burton and Tarik Cohen, but I am encouraged by what I saw from Mitchell Trubisky when the offense was on script. Jordan Howard saw more targets than Cohen and if that remains true for the next 15 games, Howard will breeze to RB1 status. Allen Robinson was more open, more agile and more targeted than expected. He finished with 107 Air Yards, and no one else on the team had more than 60. We were all a little disappointed by Burton's solitary catch, but he played a high percentage of the team's snaps and finished second on the team in targets. Better weeks will come for him with this role in the Matt Nagy offense.
Jarvis Landry Is A Real Man
Landry is essentially playing a brand-new position in the Cleveland offense. Overall, the Browns looked out of sorts and that is to be expected in games with gale-force winds and Todd Haley calling the plays. Landry had 20 percent of his 2017 Air Yards total in ONE SINGLE GAME in 2018. It's hard to imagine just how much this improves his fantasy value. Last season, he had 161 targets and finished with less than 1,000 yards receiving. Landry was only the ninth player in NFL history to do that… except he also did it in 2016 as the eighth player to do that. With an average depth of target over 13 yards down the field but also 16 targets, Landry has a path to finishing as a top-five WR if this volume remains steady.
