This article is part of our On Target series.
We have finally made it to the fantasy playoffs (for most of you). If you've been having a good season, there is a chance that a lot of you in seasonal leagues were able to secure a bye week for Week 14 but nevertheless, we are at the most important part of the NFL season for those of us who are hopelessly addicted to fantasy. Using the WR/CB matchup chart and data from Pro Football Focus, we are going to look at some interesting matchups this week for both seasonal leagues and daily fantasy.
The Good
DeAndre Hopkins vs San Francisco
Not that any of us ever would have benched Hopkins, but I do want to make it clear that Hopkins is the best overall play in daily fantasy this week. He has a 40 percent target share when Tom Savage is the Texans' QB and he has a great matchup this week. He's squaring off against Dontae Johnson of the 49ers, who is targeted on 16 percent of his coverage plays but allows 0.29 fantasy points per route run against. Hopkins should see double-digit targets against a very mediocre cover corner this week; pile on Hopkins in DFS.
Golden Tate vs Tampa Bay
Matthew Stafford is currently dealing with a hand injury which could potentially leave him unavailable to play this Sunday against the Bucs. I would imagine that will lead some people to bench Tate in their playoffs for a flashier alternative (Josh Gordon, Jamison Crowder
We have finally made it to the fantasy playoffs (for most of you). If you've been having a good season, there is a chance that a lot of you in seasonal leagues were able to secure a bye week for Week 14 but nevertheless, we are at the most important part of the NFL season for those of us who are hopelessly addicted to fantasy. Using the WR/CB matchup chart and data from Pro Football Focus, we are going to look at some interesting matchups this week for both seasonal leagues and daily fantasy.
The Good
DeAndre Hopkins vs San Francisco
Not that any of us ever would have benched Hopkins, but I do want to make it clear that Hopkins is the best overall play in daily fantasy this week. He has a 40 percent target share when Tom Savage is the Texans' QB and he has a great matchup this week. He's squaring off against Dontae Johnson of the 49ers, who is targeted on 16 percent of his coverage plays but allows 0.29 fantasy points per route run against. Hopkins should see double-digit targets against a very mediocre cover corner this week; pile on Hopkins in DFS.
Golden Tate vs Tampa Bay
Matthew Stafford is currently dealing with a hand injury which could potentially leave him unavailable to play this Sunday against the Bucs. I would imagine that will lead some people to bench Tate in their playoffs for a flashier alternative (Josh Gordon, Jamison Crowder, etc.) but Tate has a fantastic individual matchup in the slot against Vernon Hargreaves, who allows a 64 percent completion rate on targets in his coverage and 0.32 fantasy points per route run against. Even if Jake Rudock is forced to start this game for Detroit, Tate is still a very viable play in all DFS formats and should be started in seasonal leagues.
Marquise Goodwin vs Houston
Jimmy Garoppolo looked more than serviceable in his first start on the road at Soldier Field against a sturdy Bears defense. He completed 70 percent of his passes and was able to lead a game-winning drive as time expired, even if the offense wasn't able to generate any touchdowns. Goodwin has the best matchup of the WR gang against Kevin Johnson, who allows an absurd 0.43 fantasy points per route run against in coverage with a 72 percent catch conversion rate against. Goodwin stacked with Jimmy G in DFS tournaments is a really sharp move, and Goodwin is easily a startable WR3 in the fantasy playoffs.
The Interesting
Dede Westbrook vs Seattle
Westbrook has 19 targets in the last two games for the Jags and both Allen Hurns and Marqise Lee missed practice Wednesday. If either or both of them aren't able to play, I would feel confident that Westbrook's target floor would be around seven with a ceiling for much more. The Seahawks in the Legion of Boom era have always been suspectible to very quick, precise slot wide receivers, and the PFF matchup chart has him against their worst corner in Byron Maxwell. Maxwell is allowing a 70 percent catch rate and 0.34 fantasy points per route run against, which sets up to make Westbrook really sneaky this week.
Sterling Shepard vs Dallas
Not that the Dallas defense is overall that good, but I think that there is enough noise about the trash fire that is the Giants organization that some people might skip over Shepard as an option this week. He has seen a price reduction on DFS sites and after one bad week of production with Geno, people may feel gun shy with him. However he will primarily lineup against Xavier Woods who is allowing the highest completion rate of targets in his coverage in the whole of the NFL, and that spells a positive game from Shepard from who is likely to lead the Giants in targets.
Sammy Watkins vs Philadelphia
This matchup is particularly interesting because Watkins will be facing off against his old teammate Ronald Darby, who was involved in the trade that landed Watkins in LA and Jordan Matthews in Buffalo. Darby is targeted on the greatest percentage of snaps of all cover corners slotted to start this weekend at 27 percent of plays. He grades out as a fairly neutral matchup for Watkins, but if his volume gets buoyed by something that the Philly defense does to draw targets towards Darby, projection systems could be a little low on him this week.
The Bad
Josh Doctson vs Los Angeles Chargers
I am choosing to include Docston in the negative section against Casey Heyward even though I believe that he makes an interesting DFS play this week. He is priced way down on both sites in what is a bottom-five matchup for any wide receiver, but I think that there is unexploited volume for Doctson. Josh Gordon saw 11 targets in Heyward's coverage last week and while Doctson is no Josh Gordon, if he sees similar volume to that for the first time this season, he should not be ignored. Washington will likely trail most of this game and I am very curious to see how Doctson fares against Heyward.
Rishard Matthews vs Arizona
Matthews will be the Titans' wide receiver who is lined up with Patrick Peterson for most of the game. While some receivers, like Hopkins or Antonio Brown, have the skill and volume to pull out fantasy-solvent games against Peterson, Matthews is not in that tier of player. It is going to open up targets for Corey Davis and Delanie Walker and I think they both make fantastic DFS tournament options this week, and I would also consider using Davis as a starter in my deeper-league playoff matches.
