This article is part of our On Target series.
Championship week is upon us! I hope that this column finds you merely speculating on an intellectual curiosity, with such a strong roster that you would never even need to worry about a start/sit question. However, for the rest of you who do have something to ponder, I hope that this analysis of specific matchups is useful for you in your decision-making process.
Robert Foster vs. Stephon Gilmore
Pro Football Focus suggests that Gilmore is going to shadow Zay Jones in this game, but my guess is that is inaccurate. Foster has been the best playmaker on the Bills for the last month and this really should be a statement game for a Patriots team that looks like their best football is behind them. This doesn't have a ton of practicality for fantasy purposes, but from a real NFL standpoint this matchup fascinates me. Gilmore has been an elite shutdown corner but has not played anyone like Foster as of yet.
DeAndre Hopkins vs. Rasul Douglas and De'Vante Bausby
All of Philadelphia's starting defensive backs from the beginning of the year are out injured, so there is already a massive advantage in Hopkins' favor. Now take into account that Douglas allows 0.4 fantasy points per route run against (a horrible number) and Bausby allows 0.48 fantasy points per route run against (even worse), and this is looking like an absolute explosion spot for the Houston wide receiver. I will be all in on Hopkins in DFS.
John Ross vs. Cleveland
Championship week is upon us! I hope that this column finds you merely speculating on an intellectual curiosity, with such a strong roster that you would never even need to worry about a start/sit question. However, for the rest of you who do have something to ponder, I hope that this analysis of specific matchups is useful for you in your decision-making process.
Robert Foster vs. Stephon Gilmore
Pro Football Focus suggests that Gilmore is going to shadow Zay Jones in this game, but my guess is that is inaccurate. Foster has been the best playmaker on the Bills for the last month and this really should be a statement game for a Patriots team that looks like their best football is behind them. This doesn't have a ton of practicality for fantasy purposes, but from a real NFL standpoint this matchup fascinates me. Gilmore has been an elite shutdown corner but has not played anyone like Foster as of yet.
DeAndre Hopkins vs. Rasul Douglas and De'Vante Bausby
All of Philadelphia's starting defensive backs from the beginning of the year are out injured, so there is already a massive advantage in Hopkins' favor. Now take into account that Douglas allows 0.4 fantasy points per route run against (a horrible number) and Bausby allows 0.48 fantasy points per route run against (even worse), and this is looking like an absolute explosion spot for the Houston wide receiver. I will be all in on Hopkins in DFS.
John Ross vs. Cleveland CBs
Denzel Ward will be out injured for this game, so the Browns secondary will be without their best player. The Bengals are likely going to be without both A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd, their top two wide receivers, as well so we are going to see backups against backups. Ross will have a very advantageous matchup against Terrance Mitchell, who is targeted on 23 percent of his routes in coverage. I think Ross makes a really sneaky spot start this week.
JuJu Smith-Schuster vs. Eli Apple
The Saints have been using Apple as a shadow corner since acquiring him from the New York Giants, which as an aside is hilarious because Apple was so bad as a member of the Giants that no one would have ever projected he would be in a role this meaningful. The Giants are just a horribly ran franchise. ANYWAY, back to Smith-Schuster. Apple's season-long numbers suggest a guy who can be beat by someone as athletic as JSS, as he allows a 63 percent catch rate in coverage. I think JuJu can definitely get the best of Apple.
Robby Anderson vs. Jaire Alexander
Perhaps the nerdiest thing about my love for football is how much I love watching young cornerbacks develop and take the next step. Alexander was a draft prospect I really liked and he is now being deployed in a shadow role by the Packers. He'll draw Anderson this week who is an incredibly tough cover especially down the field 20-plus yards. Alexander's coverage stats this year are pretty brutal, but I do think he has a physical advantage over Robby that I expect to see come into play this week.
Godwin is going to be a popular pick in DFS games this weekend. I would also expect a large number of people will want to start him in their fantasy championships with DeSean Jackson out injured. I would give these people a slight warning, as I think he will see about half of his snaps against Jones, who is targeted on only 14 percent of his coverages and allows less than 0.2 fantasy points per route run against.
