This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Cleveland Browns at 
Houston Texans Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions for
Super Wild Card Weekend
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The weather is going to play a role in this game, and it is up to us to figure out just how much impact it will have. Once again, the Steelers won 10 games and nobody knows how. You just can't kill them. Buffalo needed a big run to finish the season just to get here after a very uneven start to the year. Now, these teams square off in Orchard Park, where it is supposed to rain on Friday and then turn to snow and be bitter cold for Sunday's kickoff with snow, wind chills near 0 and wind gusts between 25-35 mph.
Steelers at Bills Betting Odds for Super Wild Card Weekend
Bills -9.5 / Steelers +10
Bills ML -425 / Steelers ML +410
Total OVER 34.5 / UNDER 35
Last Sunday, this game opened at 7.5 with a total of 43. Within minutes, and the line jumped to 9.5, then hit 10.5 on Monday before settling into its current 10 range. With the weather picture becoming more clear as the week went on, the total steadily declined to 35.5 on Tuesday morning before rebounding to 36.5 later that day, but dropped once again to the 34.5 range we see today. You don't see many eight- or nine-point swings like this, but given the forecast, it is warranted.
Steelers at Bills Betting Picks This Week
Both teams have been in must-win playoff mode for the better part of a month now. The Steelers had Kenny Pickett go down and endured a few Mitch Trubisky starts before much-maligned Mason Rudolph came in the last two games and has played very well. Pickett is healthy, but Mike Tomlin is sticking with the hot hand and Rudolph for this one. The loss of T.J. Watt last week is a big blow to the Pittsburgh D, but I actually think that gives the Steelers more value. The public will perceive that big-name loss as being bigger than it actually is, particularly with these weather conditions. Buffalo snaked its way to an AFC East title but hasn't been impressive. The Bills are just 7-3 SU/4-6 ATS in their last 10 home games and are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as favorites. The public still loves them, but they just don't cover big numbers. Meanwhile, the Jedi that is Mike Tomlin continues to do his thing, thriving on the road and as underdogs. The Steelers have outright won six of their last 10 games as underdogs and I can see them doing it again here. My Best Bet for this game is grabbing all those points and taking the Steelers +10. I will definitely be sprinkling some on the PIT ML as well, with +410 available at FanDuel. I liked the under before it plummeted ... now, I'll pass on the total.
Steelers at Bills Best Bet: Steelers +10 (@ BetMGM)
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Steelers at Bills Prediction
The forecasted weather is nothing for hearty Buffalo fans, but the high winds will absolutely impact the play on the field and, in my opinion, favor Pittsburgh. The Steelers are no strangers to grinding out ugly wins and the longer you keep games close against Josh Allen, the more chances he has to turn the ball over. Buffalo has struck me as a finesse team all year and this seems like a terrible situation for them. After a miserable and scoreless first quarter, both teams find the end zone in the second as Pittsburgh takes a 7-6 lead into half (on a missed PAT by Buffalo's Tyler Bass). The Steelers extend the lead to 10-6 on a short Chris Boswell FG as the Pittsburgh D and steady ground attack continues to frustrate the Bills. Buffalo breaks through for a big chunk TD to take a 13-10 lead, but Pittsburgh ties it with another short FG at the gun to send it to OT at 13. From there, it is anyone's game, but with our +10 locked in, we'll be cheering hard for that big ML flier to come through. The Bills get a FG on the first possession to take a 16-13 lead, but a steady drive results in a Najee Harris walk-off TD and a 22-16 Pittsburgh victory.
