This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Saturday Football, Week 18
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Week 18 brings an AFC Central matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) and Baltimore Ravens (13-3). Let's dig into the betting market and discuss three wagers that could prove to be profitable.
Steelers vs. Ravens Betting Odds for Week 18 Saturday Night Football
Steelers: Spread (-3.0) -112, Moneyline -170; Projected Score 18.8 points
Ravens: Spread (+3.0) -108, Moneyline +142; Projected Score 15.8 points
Game Total: 34.5 points
Welcome to Week 18, where the lines are going to be completely out of whack based on each team's situation. The original line on this game was Ravens -3.5 and it reopened actually still at Ravens -1.0, but once word got out about the Ravens resting starters it started to move the way of the Steelers. It has bounced around from -3.0 to -4.0 over the past seven days and is currently -3.0.
If this were Week 17 and normal, the Ravens would have been between -7 and -10 point favorites.
The total opened at 39.0 and has steadily moved downward as more information comes out about what the Ravens are going to do with their starters. The total now sits at 34.5. There is a significant weather situation with this game as there is 99 percent expected rain with heavy winds, which will impact how the game is played.
Totaling bets thus far, 77 percent of the money is on the Ravens, and 75 percent of the bets are on the Ravens. There is 84 percent of the money on the Ravens' moneyline, but 55 percent of the bets are on the Steelers. There is 86 percent of the money and 94 percent of the bets on the OVER.
Key injury/playing time situations to watch
Steelers: FS Minkah Fitzpatrick (Questionable)
Ravens: QB Lamar Jackson (rest), WR Zay Flowers (doubtful), OT Kevin Zeitler (out), CB Marlon Humphrey (out), WR Odell Beckham (rest), CB Brandon Stephens (questionable), SS Kyle Hamilton (questionable)
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Steelers vs. Ravens Betting Picks This Week
Steelers vs. Ravens Best Bet: Najee Harris OVER 60.5 rushing yards (DraftKings -115) for 1 units
Harris has thrived with Mason Rudolph at quarterback, with 78 and 122 rushing yards the last two games. With the weather report coming out as 99 percent rain and heavy winds, I will bank on Harris being the focal point of the offense in a must-win game for the Steelers.
Steelers vs. Ravens Best Bet: UNDER 17.5 points 1st HALF (DraftKings -112) for 1 unit
This play is based on the weather, Ravens resting starters, and the key number of 17 on the total. If this were 17 it would be a no play for me. Being 17.5, we are really looking at 20 as the target number we would need to see if this were to go over. I also think field goal attempts could be out of play in the game especially in the first half.
Steelers vs. Ravens Best Bet: Ravens +3.5 (DraftKings -120) for 1 unit
Most sportsbooks have this at Steelers -3.0 now, but DraftKings just moved the Steelers -3.5 with -120 and I would take that in this spot. With the weather situation, there will be low-scoring expectations and the hook is worth the premium. The Ravens could still win this game outright as they are at home.
Steelers vs. Ravens Prediction
Steelers – #11 overall DVOA, #15 DVOA offense, #7 DVOA defense
Ravens – #1 overall DVOA, #2 DVOA offense, #1 DVOA defense
The significant line adjustment in the game usually puts me on the home-dog Ravens in this spot, as they will still play hard even resting starters. I think the Steelers will pull the game out, but I can not lay any points.
The weather is going to cause a ton of havoc in this game which puts me more on the UNDER vs. a side.
Steelers 13, Ravens 10
