Stat of the Day: 50 Stats, 50 Takes

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Published on July 3, 2024

In May, I started posting a "Stat of the Day" on X. I'll do this through mid-August. The goal is to take the most interesting stat I can find for a player and apply some actionable fantasy advice to it. You can check out my timeline @JimCoventryNFL or the @Rotowire account where they are reposted.

At the end of each month, I'll compile the entries into one article for your convenience. Below are the entries from June. The posts appear here just as they appear X, with some minor edits for readability.

In the last four years, three rookie WRs (Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, Puka Nacua) had 1,400+ yards and 6+ TDs. Those who believe Marvin Harrison is the real deal should throw the foolish "he's never played an NFL snap" into the trash. If there are other reasons to fade Harrison, that's different.
After Week 4, Breece Hall had eight games with 5+ rec and seven games with 40+ receiving yards. As a runner, Hall rushed for 4.5 yards per carry last year. The receiving work should go down. But with a revamped OL and Aaron Rodgers, Hall could go back to his rookie year. 5.8 yards per carry. He's my overall RB2 with 1,800+ yard potential.
Bijan Robinson had 23 catches and three games with 50+ receiving yards in the last five games last season. With new OC Zac Robinson and (likely) continued receiving work, the RB could flirt with 2,000 combined yards. Robinson should be a top-3 RB.
Brandon Aiyuk had an 85th percentile depth of target and a 68th percentile yards after the catch. Despite a 75-1,343-7 line, Aiyuk had three or fewer receptions five times. The 2024 numbers should remain great, but there could be a number of lean weeks.
DJ Moore has 1,157+ yards in four of five seasons. Moore hasn't missed a game in three years, and he never played fewer than 15 games in any season. With (likely) the best QB play in his career (Caleb Williams), Moore could build on his 96-1,364-8 career year of 2023.
Davante Adams is averaging 178 targets in two years in Las Vegas. Despite massive volume, bad QB play limited Adams to 103-1,144-8. With continued struggles likely at QB in 2024, Adams should retain a high floor, but the ceiling may be shaky.
Jaylen Waddle had 141 targets as a rookie, but he averaged 111 since Tyreek Hill arrived. Waddle was disappointing for fantasy in 2023, but in 2022, he had 75-1,356-8 on 117 targets. Waddle still retains excellent upside in 2024.
Michael Pittman averaged 10 targets per game to put him in line with other league alphas, and the Colts signed Pittman to a three-year deal. It's likely that Pittman will have a very high weekly PPR floor. With other weapons on the team, Pittman's upside might not be elite.
Nico Collins had 146+ yards and a touchdown four times last year, and he was in the 92nd percentile in yards after the catch. Even on 109 targets, Collins showed massive upside. Just be careful — Collins has missed at least three games each season, 13 games in three years. Durability may remain an issue.
Jalen Hurts is averaging 716 yards and 13 touchdowns on the ground the last three seasons. That is the main reason to trust him as a top-3 QB despite possible weekly inconsistency in passing numbers. That said, Hurts could also have a big passing season with a new offensive coordinator, so he has No. 1 overall upside.
DeVonta Smith has averaged 88-1,131-7 TDs since A.J. Brown joined the Eagles. However, Smith only had a 36th percentile yards after the catch rate last year. Smith should remain a high-floor player, but we may not see that huge breakthrough season in 2024.
Patrick Mahomes threw 27 touchdowns in 2023. That was at least 10 fewer than in the three prior years. The QB had seven games with 0 to 1 TD passes. Mahomes also had a career-low 7 yards per attempt last year. With the speed of Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown, expect the Chiefs to stretch the field to open the offense. Mahomes could be a top-2 QB.
Aaron Jones missed four games between 2019-2022 before missing six last year. Jones was 75th percentile in yards after contact and 64th percentile in broken-tackle rate. Playing on a one-year deal, the Vikings have no reason to limit Jones' work. Going around pick 50 in drafts, Jones is a great value.
Isiah Pacheco had two surgeries (shoulder/hand) after 2022. He also had shoulder surgery in 2023. Pacheco often sees 15-20 rushes and about four targets a game. The RB's violent running style leads to big hits, so there's risk. When healthy, he's a top-12 fantasy RB.
Joe Mixon averaged 51 receptions the last three years. In 2023, Devin Singletary and Dameon Pierce caught 43 passes. Also, Mixon has averaged 303 touches since 2021. Now with Houston, expect heavy volume as a runner and receiver on a high-powered offense. With no serious competition on the depth chart, Mixon is an excellent value in drafts.
James Cook averaged 2.64 YPC in the last five games of 2023. Cook was 37th percentile in broken tackles, but 66th percentile in yards after contact. Expect Ray Davis to steal some early down work. Cook seems like a floor play at his RB16 ADP. Upside may be limited.
Kenneth Walker had a 97th-percentile broken-tackle rate but only 48th percentile after contact. After 4.6 yards per carry as a rookie, Walker fell to 4.1 in 2023. The OL could be better this year, which would help. Walker is a reasonable value outside the top-15 RB, but he may not have big upside.
Lamar Jackson's TD numbers improved as last season went on. After four multi-TD passing games through the Week 12 bye, Jackson had 4 in 6 games, including playoffs. In his second year in Todd Monken's offense, Jackson could have improved passing numbers.
Mark Andrews missed Week 1 and took a few weeks to hit his stride. He played seven snaps in Week 11 before a season-ending injury. Andrews was still on pace for more than 900 yards. He may be the best receiver on the Ravens. I have him ranked as the TE2 (after Kelce) in fantasy.
Josh Jacobs has 4.0 or less yards per carry in three of the last four years. In 2023, Jacobs had a career-low 3.5 yards per carry with 40th percentile broken-tackle rate and 33rd percentile yards after contact. For Jacobs to be an RB1, he'll need heavy volume. I'm skeptical about that volume after GB drafted MarShawn Lloyd.
James Cook averaged 2.64 yards per carry in the last five games. Cook was 37th percentile in broken tackles, but 66th percentile in yards after contact. Expect Ray Davis to steal some early down work. Cook seems like a floor play at ADP. Cook's upside may be limited.
Sam LaPorta had 120 targets but was only 28th percentile after the catch. 10 TDs gave him a big edge in fantasy. Although a great player, he may need to retain that target volume and TD total to earn his draft value. It's possible but may be difficult.
James Conner had a career-high 5.0 yards per carry in 2023. In Weeks 13-18, he averaged 23.9 PPR points. Conner had a 94th percentile broken-tackle rate and 97th percentile yards after contact. He will likely miss 3-4 games with some type of injury. Conner will cede 5-10 touches per game to Trey Benson. Conner is a value at RB24.
Rachaad White had 336 touches last year. 64 receptions for 549 yards pushed him into the elite scoring level. White struggles to break tackles (26th percentile) or pile up yards after contact (33rd percentile). If Bucky Irving cuts into the work, White wouldn't be a fantasy value.
Zamir White was above average in broken-tackle rate (52nd) and yards-after-contact rate (69th) last year, leading to 4.3 yards per rush. White started 4 games, scoring 13.1+ PPR points in each. Las Vegas added two tight ends (Brock Bowers, Harrison Bryant) in 2024, so we may see improved blocking. White's a good value at RB20.
For the second time in three years, Rhamondre Stevenson missed five games. Stevenson was well above average in broken-tackle (60th percentile) and yards-after-contact (61st percentile) rates. He could lose some receiving work to Antonio Gibson. Injury risk is a concern at Stevenson's RB21 ADP, but if healthy, he could easily outproduce that draft cost.
In 2023, George Pickens had the best season of the 2021 draft class, which includes Drake London, Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. Pickens had 2 of his 4 games with 100+ yards (4-195-2 and 7-131) once Mason Rudolph took over in Week 16. PIT should have better QB play in 2024. Even if seeing 106 targets again, expect 1,100+ yards.
Terry McLaurin posted 1,002 to 1,191 yards with four or five TDs in each of the last four years. Due to the QB situation last year, McLaurin had eight games with 10 or fewer PPR points. With an ADP around WR30, McLaurin should be a good floor play — the receiver could have upside if Jayden Daniels proves to be worth the second overall pick in this year's draft.
In Weeks 14-15, Cooper Kupp seemed to regain some magic by posting a pair of 110-yard, 1 TD performances. Unfortunately, the receiver averaged 35 yards the last three games (including playoffs). Now 31, and with Puka Nacua involved, Kupp is hard to trust as a top-24 WR.
After missing Week 16, Jayden Reed had his best two-game stretch of the year, averaging 5-100-1. The worry is that GB may see him as a primary slot WR, and they used two receivers on 35% of their snaps in 2023. If Reed can't bump Christian Watson and/or Romeo Doubs out of two-WR sets, snaps/targets may be an issue for Reed.
Before suffering a season-ending groin injury on the first snap in Week 14, Christian Kirk was on pace for 1,200 yards. Even with Calvin Ridley on the 2023 Jags, Kirk got 7 targets per game. Expect continued volume/production. Outside the top-24 WRs in drafts, Kirk's a value.
Zay Flowers did not reach 80 yards in any of his first 15 games while posting five or fewer catches in 11 of 16 games. Flowers was 24th in ADOT but 88th in yards after the catch. Inconsistent target volume could result in weekly volatility. Ceiling may be an issue, too.
From Week 17 through the Bills' two playoff games, Dalton Kincaid averaged 6.5 targets. 5 receptions and 69 yards. It took the Bills some time to refine the tight end's role last year. Kincaid should be a focal point for Josh Allen all year. An ADP of TE5 seems perfect.
In 13 games, Alvin Kamara posted 1,160 scrimmage yards and six TDs. Kamara also had 75 receptions. In NFL terms, Kamara was in decline in broken-tackle rate (15th percentile), yards after contact (27th percentile) and yards after the catch (24th percentile). Kendre Miller could share the backfield.
Keenan Allen missed 11 games the last two years. Age and recovery from injury are often related, so Allen may struggle to play in every game. During his last three years with Justin Herbert, Allen averaged 10.2 targets per game. It's unlikely Allen has that level of volume in Chicago. There's a good chance Allen falls off statistically this season.
Trey McBride had at least 31 yards in each of his last three games, but he didn't surpass 48 yards in that span. McBride was Arizona's No. 1 receiver in the second half of the year, resulting in big numbers. With Marvin Harrison and Michael Wilson at WR, McBride seems overvalued.
Dak Prescott had similar seasons in 2021 & 2023 — about 4,500 yds and 36 TDs. After the Week 6 bye in 2023, the Cowboys abandoned their weak running game. As a result, Prescott had 29+ fantasy points in seven of 12 games (playoffs included.) Tony Pollard is gone, and Dallas only added Ezekiel Elliott to the backfield. It's unlikely the team has much success running the football, so Prescott should have elite passing volume.
Marquise Brown has 100+ targets in four straight seasons. Brown had a 15th-percentile catch rate in 2023, but it's easy to blame that on a combo of seeing deep passes, often from backup QBs. With Patrick Mahomes, a career year is possible for Brown.
In the two full games Anthony Richardson played, he scored 25.2 and 29.6 fantasy points. Richardson also scored 18.3 points in the game he played 17 snaps. In 75% of his starts, Richardson suffered injuries. The upside is amazing. If drafting Richardson as a top-six QB, consider drafting a backup.
Najee Harris had a career high 4.1 yards per carry in 2023 along with 85th percentile broken-tackle and 88th percentile yards-after-contact rates. The Steelers drafted 3 offensive linemen and brought in OC Arthur Smith. Harris should see heavy volume and is a value inside the top-24 RBs.
From Week 10 on, David Montgomery averaged less than 30 snaps per game. However, he touched the ball on half (or more) of those snaps. As a receiver, Montgomery routinely had 0 to 2 targets. If Montgomery can't come close to the 13 TDs he had last year, he'll be overvalued.
D'Andre Swift had his only 2 big games in Weeks 2-3. In Swift's other 14 games, he rushed for 4.02 yards per carry. He was below average in broken-tackle (48th percentile) and yards-after-contact (49th percentile) rates. If Chicago features him as a receiver, Swift could smash ADP. If not, Swift has significant downside.
Kyle Pitts had a 99th percentile average target depth in 2023, making him a boom/bust player — deep passes from bad QBs wasn't a good combination. The bad QB play also led to Pitts being in the 3rd percentile in yards after the catch. With new OC Zac Robinson and QB Kirk Cousins, this should be the best situation Pitts has had.
Tony Pollard had above average rates in breaking tackles (59th percentile) and yards after contact (61st percentile) last year. If he's not better with Tennessee, he could fall into a hot-hand backfield with Tyjae Spears. If Pollard improves, he'd be a steal outside the top-25 running backs in drafts.
Unlike George Kittle's first two 1,000-yard seasons when he averaged 87 catches, he reached 1,020 yards on just 65 receptions in 2023. However, on four occasions, Kittle posted fewer than 20 yards. Also, Kittle had 3 or fewer receptions 10 times. He's fine at ADP, just expect lean weeks.
Chris Godwin had 4 games with 15+ PPR points and 1 game over 20 PPR points. Through Week 14, Godwin had 10 or less PPR points 9 times. If the new OC Liam Coen moves Godwin to the slot (as the coach is on record as saying), Godwin could shatter his ADP. Remember, years ago, Baker Mayfield had great success in Cleveland with Jarvis Landry in the slot.
Calvin Ridley had nine games with single-digit PPR points last year. 2023 was the first time Ridley had a full season as a No. 1 WR. Turning 30 before the end of the year, Ridley's only big season was in 2020. In a new offense with a marginal QB, Ridley may be a WR3.
Diontae Johnson averaged 153 targets and a 94-989/5 stat line from 2020-22. Johnson had Kenny Pickett and an aging Ben Roethlisberger as his QBs. With Bryce Young getting much of his production on short passes, Johnson may match those earlier career numbers in 2024.
Ladd McConkey was drafted by the Chargers in the second round this year. He projects to be a possession receiver, playing slot or outside. Keenan Allen averaged 10.2 targets with Justin Herbert the last three years. If McConkey gets similar volume, a top-36 WR season is possible.
Last year, through Week 8, Tank Dell averaged 5.4 targets. In the last 4 games before suffering a season-ending broken leg, Dell saw his targets swell to 10.75. With Stefon Diggs added, it's hard to see Dell getting more than the 5.4 targets he saw early in 2023.