Sunday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Bears vs. Packers

Sunday night's game between Chicago and Green Bay may include the top two teams in the NFC North, but they are anything close in terms of quality, as the 7-3 Packers are 8.0-point home favorites against the 5-5 Bears in a game with a relatively low 44.0-point total on DraftKings Sportsbook. The spread certainly reflects their recent results, as the Bears are on a four-game losing streak, dropping games to the Rams, Saints, Titans and Vikings, while the Packers have won two of their last three, beating the 49ers and Jaguars before losing to the Colts last week. Adding insult to injury, the Bears will be without their starting quarterback, though given his play the spread didn't really change much.

QUARTERBACKS

The quality of quarterback play is pretty stark in this one, as Aaron Rodgers ($11,400 DK, $16,000 FD) remains an elite player at the position while the Bears will be starting Mitchell Trubisky ($9,200 DK, $13,500 FD) in place of the injured Nick Foles (hip). Trubisky began the season as the starter before being benched in Week 3, and the only reason he's getting his job back is because of the injury, not because Foles has thrown for more than 275 yards once this season while passing for one or zero touchdowns in five of eight starts.

Rodgers has accounted for at least three touchdowns in all but two games this season, and he is the most expensive player on FanDuel and second-most on DraftKings. He will surely be a popular captain/MVP play, though we can't ignore that the Bears have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, holding every one under 300 passing yards while only four have thrown multiple touchdown passes. On the bright side for Rodgers, all four of those instances came in their last four games.

Meanwhile, it seems likely that not many people will be interested in Trubisky against a Packers defense that's allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, with only one passing for more than 300 yards and two throwing for more than two touchdowns; then again, one was Philip Rivers last week when he passed for 288 yards and three scores. That being said, this may be Trubisky's last chance to show he can be a starting quarterback in the NFL, and you figure he'll have to throw quite a bit given they are such significant underdogs. Given that, he could be a fun contrarian captain/MVP, particularly because of the general belief that Rodgers is significantly better.

RUNNING BACKS

David Montgomery ($8,800 DK, $11,500 FD) was held out in Week 10 against Minnesota, leading to Cordarrelle Patterson ($4,400 DK, $9,500 FD) to get 12 carries for 30 yards, but the former is back this week to face a Packers defense that's allowed the third-most fantasy points to running backs this season. It's not all rushing work, as Green Bay has allowed the most receiving yards and third-most receiving touchdowns to the position, but they've still given up the 10th-most rushing yards. Montgomery basically dominates the Chicago backfield because he's been their only healthy running back (for the most part), but he hasn't done much with that volume, failing to reach even 90 rushing yards in a game this season. He's still likely to be a target for fantasy players because of the matchup, and the fact that if they rely more on Montgomery then they don't have to tempt fate with Trubisky's arm. 

The return of Montgomery likes means we don't have to worry about guys like Ryan Nall ($1,000 DK, $8,000 FD) and Artavis Pierce ($200 DK, $5,000 FD), who played more snaps when Montgomery was out but still didn't produce much. Nall played a season-high 17 snaps and caught one of two targets for 18 yards and rushed once for zero. Meanwhile, Pierce, who was active only two times earlier in the season (Nall has been active every game), rushed thrice for nine yards on six snaps.

The Packers continue to rely on Aaron Jones ($10,400 DK, $14,000 FD), though he loses a decent amount of opportunities to Jamaal Williams ($3,400 DK, $9,500 FD). The plus for Jones is that he can do plenty with not a lot of opportunities, but it never makes you feel good when you have to rely on a big play. The plus is that the Bears are much better against the pass than the run, so presumably the Packers could try to exploit that with their running backs, though doing so with both doesn't make it any easier for fantasy players. Jones figures to be very popular, and while the construction doesn't usually work well, playing both Packers running backs shouldn't be thrown out for those trying to compete in large-field tournaments.

Jones could be the second-most popular captain/MVP, but those looking to make a splash shouldn't ignore the possibility that Jones has a solid game but Williams is the one who gets into the end zone, making him a decent longer-shot multiplier option. Montgomery on the other side would be the contrarian play, but it could work out if the game is very low scoring.

WIDE RECEIVERS AND TIGHT ENDS

Rodgers and Jones will surely be popular options, but plenty of fantasy players will also be eyeing up Davante Adams ($12,600 DK, $15,000 FD), the most expensive player on DraftKings and second-most on FanDuel. Adams absolutely dominates in the passing game, leading the Packers in targets (90), receptions (68), receiving yards (847) and receiving touchdowns (10). The wide receiver depth chart just isn't that big for the Packers, and they've dealt with a number of injuries (including to Adams, who has played only eight games), but we can't ignore that among players at the position, Adams has had more targets than the next two-most targeted players, Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($7,200 DK, $10,200 FD) and Allen Lazard ($6,800 DK, $8,500 FD). Granted, Lazard has only played four games, but it's not like he was regularly getting double-digit targets when he was healthy.

Valdes-Scantling leads the team in air yards (847) and aDOT (16.9), and he is definitely the big-play threat capable of putting up a solid fantasy score on only a handful of opportunities. However, he was added to the injury report Friday because of an Achilles injury, so it's possible he is held out, potentially giving more snaps to guys like Equanimeous St. Brown ($2,000 DK, $6,000 FD), Darrius Shepherd ($200 DK, $5,500 FD) and Malik Taylor ($200 DK, $5,500 FD). None profile to be great plays, but Shepherd at least has a 13.8 aDOT, which is higher than anyone but Valdes-Scantling. St. Brown is actually questionable as well, which would help Shepherd and Taylor, but again, Rodgers doesn't seem likely to be throwing their ways much, even if only one or two catches could make them valuable enough to roster due to their low prices.

Tight end Robert Tonyan ($5,800 DK, $9,000 FD) could also be a beneficiary of the absences, though like most tight ends he's very touchdown dependent, particularly at his price. He has caught more than five passes once this season, which came back in Week 4 against Atlanta when he caught all six targets for 98 yards and three touchdowns. His six receiving touchdowns trail only Adams, though it's worth noting that his touchdown last week was his first since that Week 4 explosion.

In a similar vein to Adams, Allen Robinson ($10,000 DK, $13,000 FD) is the dominant pass catcher for the Bears, leading them in targets (95), receptions (63), receiving yards (755) and air yards (959), which is why he's so expensive on both sites. He's been able to produce despite the Bears' quarterback play, and while Trubisky is theoretically a downgrade from Foles, Robinson is good enough to potentially overcome that. It's possible he is shadowed by shutdown corner Jaire Alexander, but that isn't likely enough to get most people off Robinson. 

Those who do fear Alexander seem likely to pivot to rookie Darnell Mooney ($4,800 DK, $8,500 FD), who leads the team with a 14.3 aDOT on 801 air yards, though he has just two games with at least nine targets this season and zero games with more than five catches. That doesn't mean he can't explode for a good fantasy game, especially since he's a big-play threat, but from a volume perspective there's been very little to see. If volume is your thing, Anthony Miller ($3,000 DK, $7,500 FD) seems the more likely avenue, as he comes in with at least seven targets in three straight games. Miller is tied with tight end Jimmy Graham ($5,200 DK, $10,000 FD) for the second-most targets on the team, but they have just one more than Mooney, who has 87 fewer air yards than the two combined. Graham is your classic touchdown-dependent tight end, and after scoring four touchdowns in the first five games, he's had just one in the last five. From a yardage perspective, Graham has had more than 35 just twice this season, so if you don't think either Graham or Miller gets into the end zone, the latter makes much more sense because he can at least produce with his catches and yards. Graham's touchdown dependency applies just as much to backup tight end Cole Kmet ($800 DK, $6,000 FD), though he runs fewer routes.

I guess we should discuss Patterson since he's more likely to be used as a wide receiver now that Montgomery is back, and while he has plenty of single-play upside because of his speed, there have been zero indications that the Bears will give him any kind of volume, making him a pretty expensive punt. If you're really looking for that longer-shot play, guys like Riley Ridley ($200 DK, $5,000 FD), Javon Wims ($200 DK, $5,500 FD) and DeAndre Carter ($200 DK, $5,500 FD) make slightly more sense because at least they're really cheap.

KICKERS

A somewhat lower scoring game should put both kickers in play, as both Mason Crosby ($3,800 DK, $8,500 FD) and Cairo Santos ($3,600 DK, $8,000 FD) have shown solid floors throughout the season. Santos' has been more about field goals because the Bears simply don't score as many touchdowns as the Packers, but against a solid defense then maybe Green Bay can move the ball but not necessarily get into the end zone.

Kickers don't usually have enough upside to justify their use as captain/MVPs, though a really low-scoring game would presumably make them options. It's all about who they compare to salary-wise, and it seems more fantasy players will be drawn to guys like Patterson, Williams and Miller on DraftKings, plus Mooney and Lazard on FanDuel, for their upsides because they could presumably put up a kicker's worth of points on only one or two touches.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Both defenses are solid, though the Packers ($4,200 DK) could be a popular choice on DraftKings because of Trubisky under center. Given his turnover history, it's exactly the kind of quarterback you want your defense to face, but the Bears ($2,600) actually seem underpriced for how dynamic they can be. It's the most variant position by far, but given how cheap the Bears are, it wouldn't be surprising to see them more popular than the Packers in GPPs because of the salary relief and similar upside.