Sunday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Chiefs vs. Raiders

The top two teams in the AFC West face off Sunday night, though being close in the standings doesn't mean the game is expected to be close, as the 8-1 Chiefs are 8.0-point road favorites against the 6-3 Raiders in a game with a very attractive 57.0-point total on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Raiders are responsible for the Chiefs' lone loss this season, a 40-32 win road win in Week 5, which has them as the only team undefeated in AFC West play. Surely the Chiefs will be looking for revenge, but the Raiders at least had one recipe for taking them down.

QUARTERBACKS

After a bit of a lull that saw him fail to reach 240 yards in three of four games, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes ($13,400 DK, $16,500 FD) has been red hot of late, completing 61-of-87 passes for 788 yards and nine touchdowns in the past two games, a span that saw Kansas City score 68 points. Granted, those games were against the winless Jets and the 3-6 (at the time) Panthers, but he still took care of business. Mahomes' 2,687 passing yards this season are the fifth-most in the NFL (even though three of the four quarterbacks ahead of him have played one more game), his 8.2 YPA is the fourth-highest in the league, and he's amazingly only thrown one interception on 329 passes, with 25 going for touchdowns. 

He struggled with his accuracy in the first game against the Raiders, completing just 22-of-43 passes (his worst efficiency performance of the season), but he still threw for 340 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing six times for 21 yards and another score. There really aren't any good reasons to fade Mahomes other than he's going to be very popular, so contrarian GPP players have a pretty clear path in that respect, but Mahomes figures to be in a ton of lineups, including as captain/MVP because of his very high floor and sky-high ceiling.

The win over the Chiefs was Derek Carr's ($9,800 DK, $14,000 FD) best game of the season, as he completed 22-of-31 passes for 347 yards and three touchdowns, one of only two games this season with as many touchdowns. It was a bit of an outlier for the Chiefs too, as they've allowed only two other 300-yard passers this season while holding quarterbacks under 200 four times. There isn't a ton of optimism in Carr reaching that mark again, as FanDuel Sportsbook has his passing yards prop at 255.5, while Mahomes is expected to get close, sitting at 298.5.

Additionally, Carr's volume has been greatly reduced recently, throwing just 24, 23 and 25 passes in the past three games, respectively, though the first one was dramatically affected by high winds. Still, he topped out at 165 yards in those three games, tossing three touchdowns while adding 65 rushing yards, but those level of stats won't be enough for most fantasy players Sunday night, especially as the third most-expensive player on FanDuel and fourth most on DraftKings.

While Mahomes figures to be very popular, Carr isn't likely to be on that many rosters given the matchup against a defense that's allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, even if there's an expectation he'll be throwing more as an eight-point underdog. It's certainly a contrarian move that worked out in the first game between these teams, but it seems even less likely now.

WIDE RECEIVERS AND TIGHT ENDS

A quarterback like Mahomes is obviously going to have highly productive receivers, which is why Tyreek Hill ($11,000 DK, $14,500) is the second-most expensive player on DraftKings and FanDuel while tight end Travis Kelce ($10,600 DK, $13,500 FD) is third and fourth, respectively. While other pass catchers can occasionally put up big games, Hill and Kelce have been great recently, each putting up at least 98 yards in the past two games, with Kelce breaking the 100-yard mark in three of his last five while Hill has five touchdowns in his last three.

The possible return of Sammy Watkins ($5,400 DK, $8,000 FD) could complicate things a bit because Mahomes will have someone else to throw to, though maybe it's not that big of a change if Mecole Hardman ($3,600 DK, $10,000 FD) is unable to be activated from the reserve/COVID-19 list in time to play. Watkins is officially questionable after missing their last four games (they had a bye last week) because of hamstring and calf injuries, and while he's usually good for seven to 10 targets when he plays a full game, actually playing full games has been an issue. Hardman is priced on DraftKings as if Watkins will play, but his price on FanDuel feels a bit egregious for a player who had more than four targets twice this season.

Kelce and Hill's dominance in the passing game hasn't left much for Demarcus Robinson ($4,400 DK, $7,500 FD), though he has taken advantage of his opportunities by scoring in each of the past two games , a span that saw him catch seven of eight targets for 97 yards. Robinson profiles more like Hardman in terms of depth of targets, though the latter's speed with the ball after the catch separates him in terms of receiving yards:

Robinson seems likely to continue getting a few looks here and there, though you'd have to imagine he could get pushed down if Watkins and Hardman are both cleared to play. Additionally, that would probably kill any potential for Byron Pringle ($200 DK, $5,500 FD), who has only been targeted in three games this season.

Kelce and Hill each figure to be popular, and it's not out of the question to roster both and possibly fade Mahomes in the hope that he doesn't have a huge game but everything he does goes through his top two receivers. It's a strategy most people are unlikely to deploy, as most will likely have Mahomes and one of Kelce or Hill. There's also a potential strategy of paying down at captain on DraftKings to roster all three as flex plays, but that strategy leaves only an average of $5,000 per remaining three roster spots, one of which will be multiplied by 1.5x.

The Raiders' passing game relies heavily on tight end Darren Waller ($7,000 DK, $11,500 FD), who leads the team in targets (77), receptions (53), receiving yards (431) and air yards (491), while his four receiving touchdowns are the second-most. Despite Carr's recent lack of passing volume, Waller was still targeted 21 times in the past three games, catching 13 for 77 yards and a touchdown, and looking at the Raiders' target team trend, he's led or co-led them in targets in all but one game this season. His price isn't overly high, so he should be the most popular Raiders' pass catcher, and it certainly doesn't hurt that he had five catches on seven targets for 48 yards and a touchdown against the Chiefs in Week 5.

Rookie wide receiver Henry Ruggs ($5,000 DK, $7,000 FD) is likely the next place many fantasy players will go, as he leads the team with a very solid 19.5 aDOT, the highest average in the league among players with as many targets as Ruggs' 25. Waller may lead the team in air yards, but Ruggs is only three behind despite 52 fewer targets. Unfortunately, fantasy players will really need one of these long plays to hit, as he hasn't had more than four targets since Week 1, and he's on a four-game streak of 35 or fewer yards. Nelson Agholor ($6,200 DK, $8,000 FD) actually leads the team in receiving touchdowns (five), and Ruggs is the only player with a higher aDOT than his 13.8, but with just three catches on nine targets for 63 yards over the last three games, including 55 in Week 9 alone, he's unlikely to be a popular option against a defense that's allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Ruggs and Agholor each caught touchdown passes against the Chiefs in Week 5, but they combined for five targets, with Ruggs putting up the bigger 118 yards on his two catches while Agholor had 67 on his pair of grabs.

Joining them in the low-target department is Hunter Renfrow ($4,200 DK, $8,500 FD), who has at least been consistent, finishing between 21 and 84 yards in every game this season; it's not much, and his 8.4 aDOT doesn't create much enthusiasm, but if you're looking for someone who isn't likely to be popular, Renfrow fits that bill, certainly more so than guys like Bryan Edwards ($1,200 DK, $6,500 FD) and Zay Jones ($1,000 DK, $6,000 FD), who probably don't belong in player pools for those who make only a few lineups. And you can add backup tight ends Jason Witten ($800 DK, $5,500 FD) and Foster Moreau ($200 DK, $5,500 FD) to that group, though they have even less upside as low-yardage options.

Waller figures to be the most popular pass-catching Raider, both for captain/MVP and flex, though Ruggs could be an interesting play in the multiplier spot for those who embrace risk because he could put up a big game if he can score two deep touchdowns, outcomes that are in his range of outcomes.

RUNNING BACKS

The two teams' backfields couldn't be much different, as the Chiefs appear to be using a three-man committee while the Raiders rely heavily on Josh Jacobs ($9,600 DK, $13,000 FD), who has accounted for 182 of the team's 249 running back rushing attempts plus 30 of their 65 targets this season. He's been particularly busy of late, rushing 31 times for 129 yards in Week 8 against the Browns, a game that was heavily affected by high wind gusts, and 21 times for 112 yards and two touchdowns while also catching four targets for 24 receiving yards last week against the Broncos. Waller may be the most popular pass catcher for the Raiders, but Jacobs could be their most popular player against a Chiefs defense that's allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to running backs this season. Those stats including the 77 yards and two touchdowns he had against them in Week 5, though it was a fairly inefficient outing since he needed 23 carries to get there. Nevertheless, there is a commitment to use him and fantasy players should take advantage of that.

Backup Devontae Booker ($2,200 DK, $9,500 FD) has been very effective recently, rushing 24 times for 149 yards and three touchdowns in the last two games, but he's still very much the No. 2 guy. If anything, it's become clear that he's ahead of Jalen Richard ($600 DK, $6,000 FD), who is questionable to play with a chest injury. Richard is unlikely to get enough meaningful playing time even if he's healthy, so most people aren't likely to even consider him in their player pools. Given the Chiefs' struggles against running backs, fantasy players could conceivably consider both Jacobs and Booker, but you really need a lot to go right for both to have strong enough games where they outscore the Chiefs in their prices ranges, not to mention the opportunity cost of missing out on other players.

The Chiefs were off last week, but the last time we saw them they were splitting their backfield touches between Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($8,200 DK, $11,000 FD), Le'Veon Bell ($1,400 DK, $9,000 FD) and Darrel Williams ($400 DK, $6,500 FD). Here's the recap from Jerry Donabedian's Hidden Stat Line from two weeks ago:

	Snap Share	Carries	Targets	Target Share	Routes	Routes/DB	Stat Line
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	40%	5	5	11.4%	16	.34	5-14-0 — 3-20-1
Le'Veon Bell	31%	4	1	2.3%	13	.28	4-8-0 — 1–5-0
Darrel Williams	29%	0	1	2.3%	13	.28	0 — 1-3-0

• Edwards-Helaire hit a season low for snap share for a third straight week. He played at least 60 percent of snaps in each of KC's first six games, before slipping to 53, 50 and now 40 percent.
• CEH is averaging 6.3 carries and 4.0 targets on 28.3 snaps since Bell started playing. Over the first six weeks of this season, the rookie averaged 17.8 carries, 5.2 targets and 46.5 snaps.
• Williams was reintroduced to the offense, playing 11 of 11 snaps on 3rd-and-medium/long. He also got nine of 10 snaps in the two-minute drill at the end of the first half, so there's no question Williams was the passing-down specialist Sunday. That's a problem for the fantasy outlooks of CEH and Bell, especially with Andy Reid leaning more pass-heavy the past couple weeks.

This is...not ideal. It was a bit of a weird game anyway because of how little they rushed the ball, but it also doesn't seem like either Edwards-Helaire or Bell is going to get enough first and second-down opportunities to make a major impact, especially if Williams is going to be used on passing downs. If anything, maybe fantasy players take the risk with Bell because he's so much cheaper and likely to get enough touches to justify that risk (Williams seems like the definition of a punt), though you have to then consider that if most people are avoiding Edwards-Helaire then maybe we shouldn't totally forget about him for leverage purposes. Either way, captaining/MVPing any of them is a high-risk, high-reward move, but at least we know that going in.

KICKERS

High-scoring games don't usually make us think about kickers because we don't want to miss out on the upside of guys in their price ranges, but Harrison Butker ($4,000 DK, $9,000 FD) and Daniel Carlson ($3,800 DK, $8,500 FD) have both been very solid this season, scoring double-digit fantasy points a combined 10 times. Both teams can move the ball well, the Chiefs more so, and they get into enough scoring opportunities that even a high-scoring game could include the kickers in optimal lineups in cash games and GPPs. 

The real consideration is how much you think someone like Robinson or Renfrow put up a big game, which would make the kickers pretty obsolete in GPPs on DraftKings, while they're batting players like Bell, Watkins, Agholor and even Ruggs on FanDuel, making them much less viable and popular.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Mahomes and Carr have thrown a combined 612 passes this season and have been picked off three times. That's not ideal for opposing defenses. I guess we can't ignore that Carr has fumbled eight times, losing five, but ultimately they just aren't sloppy enough to think about rostering the defenses much, especially in a game that's expected to have many points.

That being said, any contrarian player will have to think about the Chiefs ($4,800 DK) and Raiders ($2,400 DK) because the variance of the position is high and anything can happen on any play, including a return touchdown either on defense or special teams. In fact, a defense could still work even if they allow a lot of points because of their own touchdown upside, so don't ignore them completely just because this game has a high total.