This article is part of our Showdown/Single Game DFS Breakdown series.
Not many Sunday Night Football games feature teams as formidable as this week's showdown between the home-team Chiefs (11-1) and the visiting but insurgent Chargers (8-4). The absence of J.K. Dobbins continues to limit the Chargers, but quarterback Justin Herbert has done better at Arrowhead Stadium than almost any visiting quarterback of recent memory, and even at 11-1 the Chiefs don't want to give up any ground to the Chargers in the divisional race. The Chiefs are favored by 4.0 points with the over/under set at 43.0
QUARTERBACK
Patrick Mahomes ($10800 DK, $16000 FD) is a perilous fade at best on any given single-game slate, because even in his struggles there's always the immediate, no-notice threat that he all of a sudden reverts to type. Particularly when the Chiefs passing game could all of a sudden look better by giving more snaps to DeAndre Hopkins, Mahomes is never far away from his next surge to the top. With that said, the Chiefs passing game has struggled well below its standards, and the Chargers defense on the other side has overachieved in almost every regard. The Chiefs might be able to flip the switch and all of a sudden turn up the temperature on the Chargers, but it would require showing something that they haven't to this point.
Justin Herbert ($9800 DK, $15000 FD) is a rushing threat on his own and if he throws enough pass attempts the yardage will pile up eventually, but unfortunately he doesn't have
Not many Sunday Night Football games feature teams as formidable as this week's showdown between the home-team Chiefs (11-1) and the visiting but insurgent Chargers (8-4). The absence of J.K. Dobbins continues to limit the Chargers, but quarterback Justin Herbert has done better at Arrowhead Stadium than almost any visiting quarterback of recent memory, and even at 11-1 the Chiefs don't want to give up any ground to the Chargers in the divisional race. The Chiefs are favored by 4.0 points with the over/under set at 43.0
QUARTERBACK
Patrick Mahomes ($10800 DK, $16000 FD) is a perilous fade at best on any given single-game slate, because even in his struggles there's always the immediate, no-notice threat that he all of a sudden reverts to type. Particularly when the Chiefs passing game could all of a sudden look better by giving more snaps to DeAndre Hopkins, Mahomes is never far away from his next surge to the top. With that said, the Chiefs passing game has struggled well below its standards, and the Chargers defense on the other side has overachieved in almost every regard. The Chiefs might be able to flip the switch and all of a sudden turn up the temperature on the Chargers, but it would require showing something that they haven't to this point.
Justin Herbert ($9800 DK, $15000 FD) is a rushing threat on his own and if he throws enough pass attempts the yardage will pile up eventually, but unfortunately he doesn't have much help from scrimmage at the moment. The Chargers run game loses something without J.K. Dobbins, and at receiver only the injured Ladd McConkey offers starter-level reps. The Chiefs defense has been sloppy lately and they'll need to get it together to keep Herbert in check here, but the importance of the matchup and the home venue might be what the Chiefs need to do exactly that.
RUNNING BACK
Isiah Pacheco ($8000 DK, $12000 FD) is a tough fade, because he's a good player and it seems like the Chiefs are dependent on Pacheco to produce the yardage amount Kansas City needs to safely budget as the favored team in this game. The Chiefs only have so much means in its passing game at the moment, and while Kareem Hunt ($6400 DK, $11500 FD) is a candidate to see double-digit carries himself, only Pacheco can offer the explosiveness the Chiefs need to win comfortably. Maybe they don't win comfortably, but if they do it's hard to see how they do it without Pacheco flexing his muscles a bit.
Gus Edwards ($7400 DK, $11000 FD) is the likely starter at running back for the Chargers, and given their run-heavy intentions there must exist some possible scenario where Edwards gets a good workload against this seemingly declining Chiefs defense. On the other hand, the Chiefs might be able to sell out against the run or/and score enough points to force the Chargers to abandon the run somewhat. If the Chargers do abandon the run it would seem to be Kimani Vidal ($2800 DK, $7500 FD) who would be up next. Hassan Haskins ($2000 DK, $6500 FD) might poach some snaps himself, though he has drifted toward the RB3 distinction lately.
WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END
Ladd McConkey ($9400 DK, $13500 FD) isn't fully healthy but he's the only Chargers receiver currently able to produce yardage at a starter-level standard. Quentin Johnston ($5800 DK, $9500 FD) is ideally a role player and Joshua Palmer ($5400 DK, $8000 FD) would ideally be a WR3 rather than a WR2. If McConkey is limited or/and if Palmer + Johnston can't pick up the resulting slack, then tight end Will Dissly ($4800 DK, $7000 FD) might need to fill the void. The Chargers have a group of potential punt-pick options at receiver and tight end otherwise, but the receiver group of Jalen Reagor, Derius Davis and DJ Chark has unclear playing time splits while the tight end Tucker Fisk rarely runs routes. If McConkey can play 40 snaps and up to his normal standards he should prove a costly fade. Determining those variables from afar isn't easy, unfortunately.
DeAndre Hopkins ($8400 DK, $10000 FD) is the only Chiefs wide receiver capable of producing anywhere near the standards of a starer, but Andy Reid for some reason has found it irresistible to give equal or greater playing time to Justin Watson ($3000 DK, $7500 FD) and JuJu Smith-Schuster ($3400 DK, $7000 FD). At least Xavier Worthy ($7000 DK, $9500 FD) gives the Chiefs a clearly unique speed threat, but Watson and Smith-Schuster just take up space. Reid would be crazier than usual to not make Hopkins the snap leader at wideout in this game. Either way, Travis Kelce ($9000 DK, $13000 FD) and Noah Gray ($4400 DK, $8000 FD) should be busy at tight end. Kelce has really struggled while Gray has broke out this year, but perhaps there's a potential pendulum dynamic to observe there.
KICKER
Cameron Dicker ($5200 DK, $8500 FD) has improved his kicking range the last two years and maintained his rare accuracy throughout that growth. The result is that he's now one of the very best kickers in the league. The Chargers are clear underdogs and they might need to go for first downs in spots where Dicker could otherwise give them three points, but if the opportunities occur he will almost certainly convert them. Dicker has double-digit fantasy points in three straight games.
Matthew Wright ($5000 DK, $9000 FD) will need to kick again for the Chiefs, and while he lacks range beyond 50 yards Wright is otherwise accurate beneath 50 yards. Forfeiting the long-range possibility isn't ideal, but Wright might see field goal opportunities if the Chiefs struggle to score in the red zone.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
Kansas City ($4000 DK, $9000 FD) started the year on a tear on defense, but lately they've fallen off both against the run and the pass. Justin Herbert isn't the kind of quarterback to get sloppy against, but then again Steve Spagnuolo and the Chiefs players have plenty history of flipping the switch when things get serious.
The Chargers ($3600 DK, $8500 FD) always overachieve on defense, but you can only outplay your talent level for so long, and through so many situations. Playing on the road against Patrick Mahomes is probably not one of the settings where it's easy to overachieve. Their coaching and cohesion as a group is always almost flawless, but that's what you're betting on with the Chargers -- it's not the talent.
