Sunday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Minnesota Vikings vs. Indianapolis Colts

The Vikings (5-2) have lost two straight after going undefeated in the first five weeks, so despite their still-excellent record the pressure has still picked up a bit after two conference losses in a row (one divisional). The Colts (4-4) have sputtered all this while but are poised to make a new run at the AFC South lead if they can get some wins starting Sunday. The Vikings defense showed some cracks against the Lions and Rams, and Colts coach Shane Steichen will hope the newly Joe Flacco-led Colts offense can make it three games of struggle in a row for Brian Flores' previously dominant group. The over/under is 47.0 with the Vikings favored by 5.5

QUARTERBACK

Joe Flacco ($9800 DK, $13500 FD) should be a big improvement for the Indianapolis passing game, but this is still a tall test for the aging veteran. The Vikings defense has smothered pretty much every offense except the last two, which are schemed by Ben Johnson and Sean McVay. Shane Steichen might be a strong playcaller himself, but this Vikings defense still deserves some benefit of the doubt for the time being. As long as Flacco can deal with his backup left tackle, though, Flacco could see upwards of 40 pass attempts to distribute between Indianapolis' skilled group of receivers.

Sam Darnold ($10000 DK, $14000 FD) has been effective for Minnesota, but the Vikings have intentionally or not kept his pass-attempt volume extremely low all year, never throwing less than 29 attempts in all but one game (31). If Flacco can force the issue by making Minnesota try to score more points, then perhaps Darnold's attempt volume could spike a bit in this otherwise excellent matchup. The Colts can't cover the Vikings route runners, so if Darnold throws more than 30 passes he could push for 300 yards here.

RUNNING BACK

Jonathan Taylor ($10600 DK, $15500 FD) needs no introduction, and as always he's a central consideration for any single-game slate. The Vikings run defense has been strong in 2024, but the absence of linebacker Blake Cashman could matter here. If Taylor has a particularly good game it could hint at a victory script for the Colts, but keep in mind that they are clear underdogs in this game. Tyler Goodson and Trey Sermon combined for only 11 snaps with Taylor back last week.

Aaron Jones ($9600 DK, $12000 FD) is a likable pick here, even against a Colts run defense that figures to improve now that DeForest Buckner is back. Even if the Colts run defense shows better here than they did previously this year, Jones has been highly productive as a pass catcher and can make up the difference by those means even if he disappoints at all as a runner. Jones has three games with four or more receptions this year, and it shouldn't shock if this makes the fifth. Ty Chandler has become an afterthought but remains the clear backup to Jones.

WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END

Justin Jefferson ($11600 DK, $16500 FD) is an exceedingly difficult fade on this one-game slate, particularly given that the Colts defense has one of the worst secondaries in the league. No defense is prepared to cover Jefferson, but the Colts are extremely ill-suited to the task. Jordan Addison ($6200 DK, $10500 FD) has seen few opportunities due to Minnesota's low-tempo, low-pass attempt offense to this point. The Vikings might need to throw the ball more in this game if Flacco can lead the Colts to points, and it's as simple as that if Darnold throws 30 passes then Addison will be in a good position to produce in his otherwise highly overqualified role. Jalen Nailor ($4000 DK, $7500 FD) and 2024-debut tight end T.J. Hockenson ($6600 DK, $9500 FD) might be the best candidates to emerge as the third-leading route runner for the Vikings, though Nailor's opportunities are usually unpredictable and there's no way to now how much or how well Hockenson will be able to play in his first game back. Josh Oliver ($2000 DK, $7000 FD) is mostly a blocking tight end but he plays regularly, which makes him a viable punt pick.

Michael Pittman ($7800 DK, $10000 FD) is a tough call as he works through a back injury that nearly landed him on IR, but if Pittman is his usual self he's one of the best receivers in the league. Josh Downs ($8000 DK, $11000 FD) has carried the slack while Pittman recovered from his injury, and with Flacco in at quarterback Downs is a good bet to maintain his momentum. The Colts have room for Pittman and Downs to coexist in the same game, but Alec Pierce ($5600 DK, $9500 FD) at this point mostly serves as a clearing-route specialist so there's more room for Downs and Pittman underneath. Pierce will make the big play deep, but at this point defenses just give him the safety respect in exchange for not giving up the long touchdowns Pierce peeled off earlier this season. Adonai Mitchell ($3000 DK, $8500 FD) has been dreadfully inefficient but has been targeted at a high per-snap rate, making him a worthwhile punt play consideration. Any Colts tight end pick should be understood as a punt, because Mo Alie-Cox, Kylen Granson, Drew Ogletree and Will Mallory all play sparing snaps to usually no effect.

KICKER

Will Reichard ($5000 DK, $9000 FD) looks like a good kicker prospect for the Vikings, as the rookie sixth-round pick has made all 14 of his field goal attempts and all 20 of his extra-point attempts. Four of those field goals were from beyond 50 yards, and four times this year Reichard has gone over double-digit fantasy points. There's no reason this should be a bad game for Reichard.

Matt Gay ($4800 DK, $9000 FD) is a quality kicker in his own right and might finish the season better than he started it if Flacco can get the offense into scoring range more often. This Vikings defense could be challenging for the Colts offense, but if the Colts move the chains in this game then Gay could see some opportunity, though he has gone over double-digit fantasy points only twice so far in 2024.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The Colts ($3600 DK, $8000 FD) have struggled across the board on defense in 2024, but the five-game absence of elite DT DeForest Buckner might have had something to do with that. There's a slight chance that the Colts front-four gets hot in the second half of the year, and Vikings will have to be careful about that pass rush. If the Vikings do contain the rush, however, then the rest of the Indianapolis defense is bad, especially in the secondary. If the Colts defense comes through here then it would probably dictate a bad game for Darnold.

The Vikings ($5200 DK, $9000 FD) are looking to get their defense back on track here, and there might be something to attack at left tackle, where the Colts will start a backup. The Colts have good wideouts and Steichen is probably a good playcaller, but if the Vikings pass rush gets to Flacco then it could bail out the otherwise mediocre Minnesota cornerbacks.