Sunday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Saints vs. Buccaneers

The top two teams in the NFC South meet Sunday night, as the 6-2 Buccaneers, the second-highest scoring team in the NFC, host the 5-2 Saints, who beat Tampa Bay 34-23 back in Week 1. That game didn't have a plethora of individual fantasy points despite the high total, but there are definitely players on both teams who have very high ceilings. The Buccaneeers are 4.5-point home favorites in a game with a 50.5-point total on DraftKings Sportsbook, so we're likely to see more balanced lineups than the single-team stacks we've been seeing lately in the nationally televised island games.

QUARTERBACKS

The two oldest players in the NFL will be under center for Sunday night's game, coming in at a combined age of 83. Both Tom Brady ($10,600 DK, $16,500) and Drew Brees ($10,000 DK, $16,000 FD) have had remarkable careers, and while they are also a combined 11-4 this season, they are obviously near the ends of their respective roads. Nevertheless, Brady, the most expensive player on FanDuel and second-most on DraftKings, has thrown more touchdown passes (20), than all but three quarterbacks this season, and only four have more than his 2,189 passing yards. Then again, it's been mostly volume short-yardage passes, as his 308 pass attempts are the third-most in the league, equating to a 7.1 YPA that is tied with Lamar Jackson for 22nd in the NFL among players with at least 100 pass attempts.

Brees, the second-most expensive player on FanDuel and third-most on DraftKings, is similarly not being tasked with throwing deep much, with a 7.5 YPA (19th in the NFL) on 253 pass attempts, and his 1,898 passing yards are good for 12th, while he's also ranked there for most touchdowns (I should point out that Brady hasn't had his bye yet, while the Saints were off in Week 6).

Brady's returns have been very up and down this season, as he has multiple touchdown passes in six of eight games, but he's also surpassed 300 yards just twice, both times reaching 369. He had a pedestrian 239 and two touchdowns against the Saints in Week 1, though he also rushed for a touchdown that significantly improved his fantasy score. Brees has also broken the 300-yard mark just twice this season while accounting for multiple touchdowns in all but one of his starts, but we don't really see the truly explosive scores we used to with either player. That doesn't mean we can't see it happen Sunday night, but it might be better to focus on the pass catchers and running backs in terms of captain/MVP plays, especially with the salary multiplier on DraftKings that makes each cost at least $15,000.

PASS CATCHERS

The elephant in the room is whether or not wide receiver Michael Thomas ($9,800 DK, $14,000 FD) is cleared to play after recovering from a hamstring injury that has kept him out since Week 1, when he caught three of five targets for 17 yards on 55 offensive snaps. Thomas was without a doubt the best wide receiver in the league last season, leading the NFL in targets (185), receptions (149) and receiving yards (1,725), the former two of which were the most in a season in league history. He is officially listed as questionable but is expected to play, though there have been no indications about whether he'll be on some kind of snap count or have other limitations. Thomas could be popular if he is healthy because the Buccaneers are better against the run than the pass (and the Saints like to pass a lot anyway), though the Saints have gotten used to not having him around, which is why Alvin Kamara ($11,200 DK, $14,500 FD) has been so popular on DFS slates this season.

Despite being a running back, Kamara basically took on Thomas' role as their leading pass catcher, as he is first on the team in targets (66), receptions (55) and receiving yards (556) while also leading them in carries (87), rushing yards (431) and rushing touchdowns (four). As the most expensive player on DraftKings, Kamara will surely be popular even if Thomas returns, though obviously more so if the star wideout sits out again. It's also not out of the question to play both and skip Brees, especially since the next-most-targeted receiver on the team is Emmanuel Sanders ($5,800 DK, $11,000 FD), who has 30 fewer targets than Kamara. Sanders missed the past two games while on the reserve/COVID-19 following a positive test, and he isn't likely to be a target for lots of people if Thomas returns (from a differential standpoint, he's pretty interesting though).

Sanders isn't the only one who will get pushed down the pecking order if Thomas is active, as Tre'Quan Smith ($3,400 DK, $9,500 FD) will move back to being the No. 3 wide receiver after catching nine of 11 targets for 97 yards in the past two games. Smith is also a possibility for Brees, but he's never really been a high-volume guy, though his 9.6 aDOT is the highest among the team's wide receivers (it's worth noting that 9.6 isn't high at all, and the fact that it leads the team's wide receivers just shows how little Brees throws down field these days). Marquez Callaway ($200 DK, $8,000 DK) and Deonte Harris ($1,200 DK, $7,000 FD) also likely fall off the radar for those who play minimal lineups, as their potential workload takes a big hit if Thomas returns.

Tight end Jared Cook ($5,400 DK, $10,000 FD) continues to be a good end-zone option but not much else, as he's scored in three straight games but also hasn't reached 55 receiving yards since Week 1. If there's something to look for it's that the Buccaneers have allowed a tight end touchdown in three of their last five games, and Cook's best game this season came against them in Week 1 when he caught five of seven targets for 80 yards, so he could be a somewhat interesting option if you don't want to rely on one of the non-Thomas wide receivers. At the very least, he'll be more reasonable than Taysom Hill ($6,000 DK, $6,500 FD), who reached his ceiling last week against the Bears by rushing five times for 35 yards and catching two targets for 30 receiving yards and a touchdown, giving him 13.5 fantasy points on FanDuel, a total that was 0.72 fantasy points more than he had scored the entire season until that game. He keeps getting a few opportunities every game, but it continues to seem extremely unlikely that he'll hurt you if you fade him, especially as the fourth-most expensive Saints player on DraftKings (he's 11th on FanDuel). Backup tight ends Josh Hill ($200 DK, $5,500 FD) and Adam Trautman ($200 DK, $5,500 FD) don't figure to be involved much, which isn't really a change from the past few weeks.

The Buccaneers' pass catching group can be dominant, but it's always tough to figure out whether it's a Mike Evans ($8,400 DK, $13,500 FD) or Chris Godwin ($7,600 DK, $14,000 FD) week. Godwin missed last week's game, and is questionable for Sunday night because of a finger injury, though coach Bruce Arians said he expects him to play against the Saints. New Orleans hasn't been great against wide receivers this season, with a lot of that coming in the past three weeks, as they allowed at least 195 yards and seven touchdowns to the position, gaudy stats on their own and even more so when you consider those games were against the Chargers, Panthers and Bears.

Godwin has only played four games this season, but he's been targeted at least six times in each, while Evans hasn't gotten more than four passes thrown his way in those games. Meanwhile, Evans had 10, eight, nine and seven targets in the four games that Godwin missed, so it does seem like there's a bit of a trend that Godwin will be more active with both in. They both got upgrades in this week's Corner Report by Mario Puig, while no one on the Saints did, so maybe we just play both and ignore Brady.

We also have to deal with the debut of Antonio Brown ($7,400 DK, $9,000 FD), who hasn't played an NFL game since Week 2 of last season, and that was his only game played all year. Brown is apparently in top shape and expected to play between 10 and 35 snaps Sunday night, which is a pretty big gap but also potentially plenty of opportunities to have the ball thrown his way. If anything, we're could see fantasy players who want to stack the Buccaneers' air attack with one of Evans and Godwin plus Brown because of the salary savings. Brown's addition also likely makes Scotty Miller ($4,800 DK, $11,000 FD) an afterthought despite nine catches on 15 targets for 144 yards and a touchdown over the past two games. Those games were without Godwin (and Brown), so the volume of looks seems unlikely to continue.

Anyone else on the wide receiver depth chart is likely to be for those who make a ton of lineups, with Tyler Johnson ($800 DK, $7,500 FD), Jaydon Mickens ($400 DK, $5,000 FD) and Justin Watson ($200 DK, $6,000 FD) unlikely to be used much at all, and a touchdown would be more surprising than anything else.

Tight end Rob Gronkowski ($6,400 DK, $9,500 FD) is second on the team in targets (40) and receptions (26) this season, and after a slow start he's scored in three straight games. He was targeted 26 times in the past four games, and it's certainly in the realm of possibilities that he continues to get looks, particularly in the red zone, which is why his +160 anytime touchdown odds are similar to the top wide receivers on the team (Godwin and Evans are +130 while Brown is also +160). Given the salary savings, Gronkowski could be a popular play for those who don't necessarily want to spend up on Brady but prefer to focus on his pass catchers. Backups Cameron Brate ($1,800 DK, $6,000 FD) and Tanner Hudson ($200 DK, $5,500 FD) don't figure to get much attention from Brady, and therefore won't get it from most fantasy players.

THE BACKFIELDS

While Kamara dominates the Saints' backfield, Latavius Murray ($2,400 DK, $8,000 FD) is still around, though he hasn't done much recently, rushing 19 times for 66 yards and catching four targets for 23 receiving yards in the last two games. And while he does get some opportunities in the red zone, Kamara has gotten the carries inside the five-yard line recently, making it really tough to expect any kind of breakout for Murray if Kamara is healthy. The return of Ty Montgomery ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) clouds the situation a bit, but that's really only for Murray than Kamara. We also can't ignore that while the Buccaneers have allowed the 14th-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season, a lot of that is because of the eight touchdowns they've allowed to them, with half coming in the first two games of the season (two to the Saints), and their 2.84 yards per carry allowed is the lowest in the NFL.

The Buccaneers' backfield is split between Leonard Fournette ($6,800 DK, $10,000 FD) and Ronald Jones ($6,600 DK, $13,000 FD), who are obviously priced very differently on FanDuel while being next to each other on DraftKings. After getting close to the same number of touches, Fournette was the dominant ball carrier last week against the Giants, rushing 15 times for 52 yards and catches three of six targets for 19 yards last Monday against the Giants, while Jones was relegated to backup duties after fumbling on the team's second possession. Jones was left with only seven carries for 23 yards while catching all four of his targets for 23 more yards, and it seems a bit nuts to use him on FanDuel given the price, though if everyone thinks that then maybe he makes for a solid differential. You can certainly make similar lineups on DraftKings and then just plug Fournette in one and Jones in another, but you have to wonder how much exposure you even want to their running game against a Saints defense that hasn't allowed a running back touchdown in each of the past three games and has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to the position this season.

Kamara figures to be a popular captain/MVP despite a high salary, but there really isn't a great path to any other running back in the game having an explosive fantasy performance, which likely keeps them as not overly popular, and certainly not in the multiplier spots.

KICKERS

With so many viable ceiling plays on the slate, it seems likely that Ryan Succop ($4,200 DK, $8,500 FD) and Wil Lutz ($4,000 DK, $9,000 FD) won't be that popular. That seems like a poor decision, however, especially in cash games, as Succop has been very busy of late, scoring at least 8.0 fantasy points in each of the past six games, while Lutz has scored at least 11.0 in all but two games this year, including more than 10.0 in each of the past three. They aren't sexy plays, but they've been some of the most consistent players in this game, and you know they'll get their opportunities, or at least more so than the skill position players in their salary ranges, which mostly consist of backup wide receivers, running backs and tight ends.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Brady and Brees have combined for seven interceptions on 561 combined pass attempts, and they've only been sacked a total of 19 times, so it's tough to get overly excited about either defense in this game. Relying on sacks may be an option, though the Buccaneers ($4,600 DK) do come in with six turnovers in their last four games, a time that saw them rack up 14 sacks, while the Saints haven't been nearly as productive, picking off two passes while failing to recover a fumble in that span. They did have 12 sacks in that span, but you really need turnovers for this to work. The Saints did have a touchdown in Week 1 against Tampa Bay, a game in which the Saints scored 0.0 fantasy points, but you can't really rely on touchdowns because they're so variant.

If anything, the defenses aren't likely to be that popular, so those who love differential plays are likely to consider them, but it's tough to see them get much love in cash games, especially because the kickers are similarly priced.