This article is part of our Survivor series.
The Chargers and Seahawks took down roughly 40 percent of pools last week, and if yours is still going, I imagine it's down to the very end.
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ERS | Texans | 22.7% | 675 | 87.10 | 2.93 |
| PATRIOTS | Jaguars | 21.5% | 975 | 90.70 | 2.00 |
| SEAHAWKS | Lions | 14.1% | 290 | 74.36 | 3.62 |
| SAINTS | Panthers | 11.2% | 320 | 76.19 | 2.67 |
| BEARS | Giants | 7.7% | 250 | 71.43 | 2.20 |
| CHARGERS | Broncos | 4.5% | 230 | 69.70 | 1.36 |
| Buccaneers | JETS | 4.3% | 675 | 87.10 | 0.55 |
| BILLS | Falcons | 4.2% | 825 | 89.19 | 0.45 |
| PACKERS | Vikings | 2.6% | 260 | 72.22 | 0.72 |
| COLTS | Raiders | 1.6% | 300 | 75.00 | 0.40 |
| TITANS | Dolphins | 1.3% | 165 | 62.26 | 0.49 |
| Chiefs | BENGALS | 0.9% | 205 | 67.21 | 0.30 |
| Eagles | Team | 0.7% | 170 | 62.96 | 0.26 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
As always, the available teams in your individual pools are more relevant than this global polling data at this stage in the year, so plan accordingly.
My Picks:
1. New England Patriots
The Patriots are coming off two straight losses and have a tough game against the Dolphins in Week 18. This is a must-win, and I think they'll blow out the Jaguars. I give the Patriots a 91 percent chance to win this game.
2. Buffalo Bills
The Bills have played well since the second half of the Buccaneers game, and they draw an Atlanta team that has fared poorly against good opponents. I give the Bills an 89 percent chance to win this game.
3. Tampa Bay
The Chargers and Seahawks took down roughly 40 percent of pools last week, and if yours is still going, I imagine it's down to the very end.
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ERS | Texans | 22.7% | 675 | 87.10 | 2.93 |
| PATRIOTS | Jaguars | 21.5% | 975 | 90.70 | 2.00 |
| SEAHAWKS | Lions | 14.1% | 290 | 74.36 | 3.62 |
| SAINTS | Panthers | 11.2% | 320 | 76.19 | 2.67 |
| BEARS | Giants | 7.7% | 250 | 71.43 | 2.20 |
| CHARGERS | Broncos | 4.5% | 230 | 69.70 | 1.36 |
| Buccaneers | JETS | 4.3% | 675 | 87.10 | 0.55 |
| BILLS | Falcons | 4.2% | 825 | 89.19 | 0.45 |
| PACKERS | Vikings | 2.6% | 260 | 72.22 | 0.72 |
| COLTS | Raiders | 1.6% | 300 | 75.00 | 0.40 |
| TITANS | Dolphins | 1.3% | 165 | 62.26 | 0.49 |
| Chiefs | BENGALS | 0.9% | 205 | 67.21 | 0.30 |
| Eagles | Team | 0.7% | 170 | 62.96 | 0.26 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
As always, the available teams in your individual pools are more relevant than this global polling data at this stage in the year, so plan accordingly.
My Picks:
1. New England Patriots
The Patriots are coming off two straight losses and have a tough game against the Dolphins in Week 18. This is a must-win, and I think they'll blow out the Jaguars. I give the Patriots a 91 percent chance to win this game.
2. Buffalo Bills
The Bills have played well since the second half of the Buccaneers game, and they draw an Atlanta team that has fared poorly against good opponents. I give the Bills an 89 percent chance to win this game.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers are missing key offensive players, but their defense is good, and Tom Brady likes taking it out on the Jets. I give the Buccaneers an 87 percent chance to win this game.
4. San Francisco 49ers
The Niners lost to a tough Titans squad, but they have 10 days rest and should take it to a resilient but undermanned Texans team. I give the 49ers an 87 percent chance to win this game.
5. New Orleans Saints
The Saints got destroyed against the Dolphins with Ian Book under center, but Taysom Hill will be back, and their defense is too much for a terrible Panthers offense. I give the Saints a 75 percent chance to win this game.
6. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers came up small against the Texans last week, but I'd expect them to bounce back against a Denver team that struggles to move the ball. I give the Chargers a 74 percent chance to win this game.
7. Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks haven't looked like themselves all year, and not much has changed even since Russell Wilson got back. The Lions play hard every week even though they're undermanned. Still, this game is in Seattle, and I give the Seahawks a 73 percent chance to win this game.
8. Chicago Bears
The Bears just pulled off a last-minute upset win in Seattle, while the Giants offense is arguably the worst in the league. That said, the Giants defense is decent, and the Bears offense is still below average. I give the Bears a 73 percent chance to win this game.
9. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are rolling of late, thanks to their defense, but the Bengals are a good team that can attack down the field. Still, the KC defense is far better than the Ravens one Joe Burrow faced last week. I give the Chiefs a 71 percent chance to win this game.
10. Dallas Cowboys
The Cardinals have lost three in a row, while the Cowboys defense is finally healthy and hitting its stride. The Cowboys should win at home, but Kyler Murray and the Arizona defense have a puncher's chance. I give the Cowboys a 70 percent chance to win this game.
11. Green Bay Packers
The Packers might be the league's best team, and they're at home, but the Vikings go toe to toe with everyone, and they beat the Packers in Minnesota. I give the Packers a 68 percent chance to win this game.
12. Indianapolis Colts
I'd have the Colts as high as No. 6 if I knew Carson Wentz were playing. The Raiders are inconsistent and need a healthy Darren Waller to stretch the field. I give the Colts (with Wentz) a 74 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Tennessee Titans -- The Dolphins are scrappy and have won seven straight games.
Philadelphia Eagles -- The Team tends to show up, and they'll be focused after an embarrassing loss to the Cowboys on Sunday night.
