This article is part of our Survivor series.
Week 9 went almost according to form. Only two of the top-15 Survivor picks lost, the biggest of which was the Saints with 10 percent of the vote. Once Chris Olave went down, New Orleans became a one-man team with Alvin Kamara, and that wasn't enough, even though it was against the lowly Panthers. (The other team that lost was the Texans, but less than one percent of Survivors when that route.)
The Saints took out one Survivor in my pool. Of the original 442, eight remain.
On to Week 10.
(You are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind our Survivor strategy.)
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing. Home teams in CAPS.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHARGERS | Titans | 37.5% | 337.5 | 77.1% | 8.57 |
| CHIEFS | Broncos | 14.0% | 355 | 78.0% | 3.08 |
| BEARS | Patriots | 13.9% | 252.5 | 71.6% | 3.94 |
| Eagles | COWBOYS | 6.8% | 315 | 75.9% | 1.64 |
| Giants | Panthers^ | 5.8% | 225 | 69.2% | 1.78 |
| Vikings | JAGUARS | 5.6% | 190 | 65.5% | 1.93 |
| RAVENS | Bengals | 4.2% | 247.5 | 71.2% | 1.21 |
| Falcons | SAINTS | 3.5% | 160 | 61.5% | 1.35 |
| Bills | COLTS | 3.4% | 205 | 67.2% | 1.11 |
| 49ers | BUCCANEERS | 2.0% | 225 | 69.2% | 0.62 |
| Lions | TEXANS | 1.2% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 0.44 |
| RAMS | Dolphins | 0.8% | 122.5 | 55.1% | 0.36 |
| CARDINALS | Jets | 0.6% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.29 |
| COMMANDERS | Steelers | 0.3% | 142.5 | 58.8% | 0.12 |
Home teams in CAPS
Week 9 went almost according to form. Only two of the top-15 Survivor picks lost, the biggest of which was the Saints with 10 percent of the vote. Once Chris Olave went down, New Orleans became a one-man team with Alvin Kamara, and that wasn't enough, even though it was against the lowly Panthers. (The other team that lost was the Texans, but less than one percent of Survivors when that route.)
The Saints took out one Survivor in my pool. Of the original 442, eight remain.
On to Week 10.
(You are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind our Survivor strategy.)
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing. Home teams in CAPS.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHARGERS | Titans | 37.5% | 337.5 | 77.1% | 8.57 |
| CHIEFS | Broncos | 14.0% | 355 | 78.0% | 3.08 |
| BEARS | Patriots | 13.9% | 252.5 | 71.6% | 3.94 |
| Eagles | COWBOYS | 6.8% | 315 | 75.9% | 1.64 |
| Giants | Panthers^ | 5.8% | 225 | 69.2% | 1.78 |
| Vikings | JAGUARS | 5.6% | 190 | 65.5% | 1.93 |
| RAVENS | Bengals | 4.2% | 247.5 | 71.2% | 1.21 |
| Falcons | SAINTS | 3.5% | 160 | 61.5% | 1.35 |
| Bills | COLTS | 3.4% | 205 | 67.2% | 1.11 |
| 49ers | BUCCANEERS | 2.0% | 225 | 69.2% | 0.62 |
| Lions | TEXANS | 1.2% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 0.44 |
| RAMS | Dolphins | 0.8% | 122.5 | 55.1% | 0.36 |
| CARDINALS | Jets | 0.6% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.29 |
| COMMANDERS | Steelers | 0.3% | 142.5 | 58.8% | 0.12 |
Home teams in CAPS
^ at Munich
This week, we again have a pot-odds opportunity.
Nearly 38 percent of Survivors picked the Chargers while only 14 percent picked the Chiefs. But the Chiefs actually have better Vegas odds (78 percent) than the Chargers (77). So, right off the bat we know that the reward ratio outweighs the risk ration by picking the Chiefs over the Chargers.
However, if you've saved the Chiefs this long — or, as argued below, you just aren't as keen on the Chiefs this week — you might as well wait another couple weeks when they play the Panthers or the week after when they play the Raiders, both of which seem like much better matchups than this week's game against the Broncos.
We don't usually advocate "saving" teams, but we're at the part of the season (earlier than most years thanks to Survivor upsets that have thinned the herd) where it starts to pay to look down the road. Along those lines, chances are, there aren't many Survivors left in most pools. So, even though we are just at midseason, it's a good idea to start looking at what teams your competition has left.
So if not the Chiefs, how do the Bears, the third-most popular team, look as a pot-odds play? Let's check it out.
A Chargers win/Bears loss is .77 (Chargers Vegas Odds of winning) multiplied by .28 (Bears' Vegas Odds of losing), which is 22 percent. A Bears win/Chargers loss is .72*.23 = 17 percent.
That means the risk ratio is 22/17 = 1.3.
For the reward ratio, we'll use our usual hypothetical $10 buy-in, 100-person pool. If the Chargers win/Bears lose, 14 are out on the Bears plus another 15 non-Bears owners projected to lose, for 29 total losers. 100-29 = 71 remaining owners; $1,000/71 = $14.08 in equity.
If the Bears win/Chargers lose, it's 38 out on the Chargers, plus 15 more, for 53 total losers. 100-53 = 47; $1,000/47 = $21.27.
The ratio of $21.27/$14.08 is 1.5.
So, the risk of picking the Bears instead of the Chargers is 1.3, but the reward is 1.5. It's worth the risk to potentially knock out more than a third of your pool.
Picks below are in order of preference,
My Picks
Philadelphia Eagles
Dak Prescott is out and CeeDee Lamb has a shoulder injury. Maybe the Cowboys can rely on their running game against the Eagles? Let's see ... they are ... 30th in yards per rush and 31st in rush yards per game. Oh, well. Alas, nearly 40 percent of Survivors used the Eagles in Week 6 and another 20 percent used them last week. If they're still available, this is a good week.
Atlanta Falcons
Only 3.5 percent of Survivors are on the Falcons this week, which must be because they've already been used. Atlanta has won five of six, while the Saints are reeling. With Chris Olave out, Alvin Kamara might need another 35(!) touches.
Chicago Bears
The Bears have lost two in a row, in ugly fashion to boot. But they're 3-0 at home, averaging 28 points per game, and are good enough to take advantage of the rookie errors Drake Maye is likely to make. It sets up as a good get-right spot for the Bears.
Los Angeles Chargers
For all the talk about Jim Harbaugh and the offense, it's been the Chargers' defense that has most impressed. The Chargers have not allowed more than 20 points all season and in their last five games averaged 13.6 points allowed. The Titans, though they are coming off their second win of the season (against the Patriots), aren't good offensively to begin with.
New York Giants
The pick-against-Carolina strategy backfired last week, but that strategy is still sound. As bad as the Giants are, they're still better than the Panthers, and Daniel Jones has been better on the road this year. That should work in Munich.
NOTABLE OMISSION:
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs (probably) will lose sometime, and often these things come when not expected. Kansas City has a short week against a division opponent, and perhaps will overlook the Broncos with the Bills next up. Denver got torched last week, but its defense has been pretty good this year overall. I'm not guaranteeing the Chiefs will lose, but there seems to be safer Survivor picks on the board. And, as noted, those who still have K.C. available might as well save it for Week 12 against the Panthers.
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