This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week was not fun. Not just because my pick, the Bengals, lost but because I saw the train wreck coming but could do little to avoid it. Bengals-Texans was a classic trap game for Cincinnati. As noted last week, the Bengals were coming off a big Week 9 win vs. the Bills and play the AFC North-rival Ravens in Week 11. It's easy to overlook the Texans in that spot. More important, with Tee Higgins out and Ja'Marr Chase gimpy, the Bengals were not at full strength, which would make it likely the Texans could keep it close. And if you let C.J. Stroud hang around, he can make you pay, as he did just the week before against the Buccaneers.
As the week went on, I became more and more uneasy about the pick. But there was one problem standing in the way of changing it: better options were not available. I already used the Cowboys and Seahawks, and I was nearly as lukewarm on Seattle as I was on Cincinnati. And I wasn't going to fade the Bengals for the likes of Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Chicago, Atlanta or the Ravens against the Browns. So, even though I was uneasy about the pick, I still liked it at least slightly better than the other options.
In hindsight, I should have given more consideration to the Steelers (fourth on the list of picks last week). Pittsburgh's defense can carry it's bad offense against a poor opponent, which is what happened
Last week was not fun. Not just because my pick, the Bengals, lost but because I saw the train wreck coming but could do little to avoid it. Bengals-Texans was a classic trap game for Cincinnati. As noted last week, the Bengals were coming off a big Week 9 win vs. the Bills and play the AFC North-rival Ravens in Week 11. It's easy to overlook the Texans in that spot. More important, with Tee Higgins out and Ja'Marr Chase gimpy, the Bengals were not at full strength, which would make it likely the Texans could keep it close. And if you let C.J. Stroud hang around, he can make you pay, as he did just the week before against the Buccaneers.
As the week went on, I became more and more uneasy about the pick. But there was one problem standing in the way of changing it: better options were not available. I already used the Cowboys and Seahawks, and I was nearly as lukewarm on Seattle as I was on Cincinnati. And I wasn't going to fade the Bengals for the likes of Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Chicago, Atlanta or the Ravens against the Browns. So, even though I was uneasy about the pick, I still liked it at least slightly better than the other options.
In hindsight, I should have given more consideration to the Steelers (fourth on the list of picks last week). Pittsburgh's defense can carry it's bad offense against a poor opponent, which is what happened against the Packers.
Then again, if Tyler Boyd catches a would-be TD pass that hit him in the hands with less than two minutes to play, who knows, maybe the Bengals pull it out and all of this is mute.
But they didn't, and I'm dead. Thanks for listening.
In my pool, 48 were eliminated last week (34 on the Bengals), leaving 39 of the original 414 still Surviving.
Hope you are one of those. On to Week 11.
You are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind our Survivor strategy.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines, according to BetMGM. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN* | VEGAS ML** | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COMMANDERS | Giants | 32.2% | 400 | 80.0% | 6.44 |
| LIONS | Bears | 19.2% | 430 | 81.1% | 3.62 |
| JAGUARS | Titans | 14.3% | 270 | 73.0% | 3.86 |
| 49ERS | Buccaneers | 11.7% | 550 | 84.6% | 1.80 |
| DOLPHINS | Raiders | 9.2% | 600 | 85.7% | 1.31 |
| TEXANS | Cardinals | 5.2% | 190 | 65.5% | 1.79 |
| Cowboys | PANTHERS | 4.1% | 475 | 82.6% | 0.71 |
| BILLS | Jets | 1.7% | 270 | 73.0% | 0.46 |
| Chargers | PACKERS | 0.8% | 150 | 60.0% | 0.32 |
| BROWNS | Steelers | 0.6% | 127.5 | 56.0% | 0.26 |
| RAVENS | Bengals | 0.3% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 0.11 |
| BRONCOS | Vikings | 0.2% | 120 | 54.5% | 0.09 |
| Seahawks | RAMS | 0.1% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.05 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
Unlike last week, Week 11 offers plenty of good choices, even if the top teams are not available. Five teams have at least an 80 percent chance of winning, according to oddsmakers, and another two are at 73 percent. Of the teams below, Dallas, San Francisco and Miami are off the board for most. That leaves Washington, Detroit, Jacksonville and Houston.
There's a bit of a pot-odds play with Washington and Detroit. The Lions have slightly better odds to win, but more people are picking the Commanders. A third of the public is on the Commanders compared to a fifth on the Lions, which gives us a reward ratio (after doing the math) of 1.23. It's not an overwhelming pot-odds play, but it's enough to take the Lions over the Commanders if both are available — i.e., according to Vegas, not only is there (slightly) less risk in taking the Lions than the Commanders but you'll gain more if they win and the Commanders lose.
I used the Lions in Week 8, so if I was alive, the best to consider of the teams below is Jacksonville (Dallas, San Francisco, Miami are also gone). But in that case (again, after doing the math), the reward of taking the Jaguars (1.32) does not outweigh the risk (1.48). So, I'd be on Washington.
Picks below are in order of preference.
My Picks
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers snapped a three-game losing streak with a blowout win at Jacksonville last week. The Buccaneers snapped a four-game losing streak with a blowout win against the Titans. Advantage 49ers. The return of Deebo Samuel makes the 49ers a different offense than what they fielded during their trio of losses, and the addition of Chase Young makes a nasty pass rush even nastier. Perhaps the Bucs can hang for a half before the 49ers pull away. Or it could get ugly fast.
Dallas Cowboys
Last week's game against the Giants was never competitive, and a matchup against the Panthers figures to be similar. Carolina is at home and the Cowboys choked one away to the Cardinals on the road earlier in the year, but that's about the only hesitation. Just four percent of the public is on the Cowboys because the other 96 percent probably already used them. If the Cowboys are still available, go for it.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins have destroyed bad teams this year and the Raiders still qualify as a bad team, despite recent events. Las Vegas is feeling pretty good about itself after sweeping the New York teams the last two weeks, and maybe everything is better with Josh McDaniels out of the picture. But Aidan O'Connell is still the quarterback (1/1 TD/INT, 181 pass yards/game in the N.Y. wins) and beating the New York teams isn't exactly monumental. Miami is also coming off a bye.
Washington Commanders
Tyrod Taylor somehow quarterbacked the Giants to their second win of the season when these teams met Week 7. Tommy DeVito is at the helm now, though. DeVito had no shot last week at Dallas. Washington isn't great, but most of its games this season have been competitive, including last week's last-second loss at Seattle. The Giants got steamrolled last week and likely will meet the same fate this week.
Detroit Lions
The Lions are 7-2 with respectable losses to the Seahawks and Ravens. Fortunately for Detroit, this week's opponent is foul, not fowl. The Bears beat the Panthers in a miserable Thursday game last week, but the positive energy from that and the possible return of Justin Fields probably won't be enough to hang with the Lions in Detroit. The Lions have a top-10 pass rush and Jared Goff has an 8.3 YPA at home. The Bears have the lowest QB pressure rate (29.6%) in the league and have a allowed the second-most TD passes (20).
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars got throttled last week by the 49ers and now welcome NFC South punching bag Tennessee to town. After completing 65.5 percent of his throws with four TD passes in his debut, Will Levis completed 52.6 percent the last two weeks with no TD passes and two interceptions. Looks like a get-right game for J-Ville.
Houston Texans
The Texans are 5-4 and in the playoff hunt. Much is possible with C.J. Stroud at quarterback, as Houston showed last week. Kyler Murray led the Cardinals to victory last week in his first game back from an ACL tear. The Cardinals are better with Murray but still aren't good. It's possible we're giving Murray's impact short shrift and we'll look back on last week and this week as the beginning of a Murray-led turnaround for the Cardinals. Maybe, but I'm willing to take my chances. Houston's fourth-ranked QB pressure rate (41.7%) should make it tougher this week for Murray. The Texans are the better team and are at home.
Notable Omission:
Buffalo Bills
The Bills could have been the notable omission last week. This week against the Jets, they definitely are. They scored just 16 points against the Jets in Week 1 — and that was when they were still good. They've lost four of six and, as mentioned last week, could easily be on a six-game losing streak. The scapegoat firing of offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey this week probably didn't go over well in the locker room either. Vegas gives the Bills a 73 percent chance of winning, but why 1.7 percent of Survivors would risk elimination on this team is beyond me.
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