This article is part of our Survivor series.
Two of the top-3 picks lost last week, and the third, the Chiefs, barely won. The Commanders' loss to the Cowboys was particularly galling. The Cowboys had no business winning that game, needing a kickoff return TD and a missed extra point to pull it out. (They got a second KOR TD on the onside kick following the missed PAT.)
In any event, that's life in Survivor.
In my pool, two participants were eliminated (on Washington and Houston). Of the original 442, five remain.
On to Week 13.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing. Home teams in CAPS.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHIEFS | Raiders | 18.8% | 562.5 | 84.9% | 2.84 |
| Buccaneers | PANTHERS | 18.5% | 242.5 | 70.8% | 5.40 |
| LIONS | Bears | 11.9% | 475 | 82.6% | 2.07 |
| COWBOYS | Giants | 11.9% | 182.5 | 64.6% | 4.21 |
| BILLS | 49ers | 10.8% | 270 | 73.0% | 2.92 |
| BRONCOS | Browns | 8.7% | 225 | 69.2% | 2.68 |
| COMMANDERS | Titans | 6.0% | 225 | 69.2% | 1.85 |
| Texans | JAGUARS | 4.9% | 205 | 67.2% | 1.61 |
| PACKERS | Dolphins | 2.6% | 160 | 61.5% | 1.00 |
| VIKINGS | Cardinals | 1.4% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 0.51 |
| Colts | PATRIOTS | 1.2% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 0.51 |
| Rams | SAINTS | 0.9% | 142.5 | 58.8% | 0.37 |
| Seahawks | JETS | 0.8% | 122.5 | 55.1% | 0.36 |
| BENGALS | Steelers | 0.4% | 142.5 | 58.8% | 0.16 |
| Chargers | FALCONS | 0.2% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.09 |
| RAVENS | Eagles | 0.1% | 142.5 | 58.8% | 0.04 |
A pot-odds play isn't in the works this week with the Chiefs
Two of the top-3 picks lost last week, and the third, the Chiefs, barely won. The Commanders' loss to the Cowboys was particularly galling. The Cowboys had no business winning that game, needing a kickoff return TD and a missed extra point to pull it out. (They got a second KOR TD on the onside kick following the missed PAT.)
In any event, that's life in Survivor.
In my pool, two participants were eliminated (on Washington and Houston). Of the original 442, five remain.
On to Week 13.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing. Home teams in CAPS.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHIEFS | Raiders | 18.8% | 562.5 | 84.9% | 2.84 |
| Buccaneers | PANTHERS | 18.5% | 242.5 | 70.8% | 5.40 |
| LIONS | Bears | 11.9% | 475 | 82.6% | 2.07 |
| COWBOYS | Giants | 11.9% | 182.5 | 64.6% | 4.21 |
| BILLS | 49ers | 10.8% | 270 | 73.0% | 2.92 |
| BRONCOS | Browns | 8.7% | 225 | 69.2% | 2.68 |
| COMMANDERS | Titans | 6.0% | 225 | 69.2% | 1.85 |
| Texans | JAGUARS | 4.9% | 205 | 67.2% | 1.61 |
| PACKERS | Dolphins | 2.6% | 160 | 61.5% | 1.00 |
| VIKINGS | Cardinals | 1.4% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 0.51 |
| Colts | PATRIOTS | 1.2% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 0.51 |
| Rams | SAINTS | 0.9% | 142.5 | 58.8% | 0.37 |
| Seahawks | JETS | 0.8% | 122.5 | 55.1% | 0.36 |
| BENGALS | Steelers | 0.4% | 142.5 | 58.8% | 0.16 |
| Chargers | FALCONS | 0.2% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.09 |
| RAVENS | Eagles | 0.1% | 142.5 | 58.8% | 0.04 |
A pot-odds play isn't in the works this week with the Chiefs and Buccaneers both at 18 percent popularity and three others not far behind.
As such, pick your favorite team. Your pick should should be informed by whoever your competition has available.
Picks below are in order of preference.
My Picks
Kansas City Chiefs
If the Chiefs are still available, this is the week to use them. Kansas City nearly lost last week, which is bad news for the Raiders because it likely means the Chiefs are at full attention for this division game at Arrowhead. The Raiders have lost seven in a row, with maybe two of those games competitive. If that's not enough, Desmond Ridder could start at QB for the Raiders.
Detroit Lions
Thanksgiving hasn't traditionally meant good things for the Lions, but this year they likely won't let the national spotlight go to waste. Chicago has played better in recent weeks since the change at offensive coordinator, but the Lions are rolling and there is little reason to think it stops this week in front of what is sure to be a wild crowd. Gobble, Gobble.
Buffalo Bills
What once looked like a great game could get ugly quickly. The Bills are coming off a bye, while the 49ers are coming off a brutal loss. They were in last week's game at Green Bay in the second half, but dropped passes, missed tackles and penalties doomed them. Brock Purdy and Nick Bosa likely will be out again, among a host of others. Even if Purdy plays, how effective can he be with a bum shoulder in what is likely to be snowy conditions at below-freezing temperature in a night game?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Panthers have played better lately, beating the Saints and Giants and barely losing to the Chiefs last week. They're still not good, though, and the Bucs have enough now that Mike Evans is healthy to topple the Panthers on the road. Tampa Bay plays the Raiders next week, though, so it might be wise to wait to use them when six teams have a bye in Week 14.
Denver Broncos
Bo Nix has figured out how to beat bad defenses, give him that. He has an 11/0 TD/INT vs. the Raiders, Falcons and Panthers, and a 5/6 TD/INT vs. everyone else. The Browns are more middle-of-the-road than straight-up trash, but the Broncos should still take care of them at home on Monday night.
NOTABLE OMISSION:
Dallas Cowboys
The Tommy DeVito-led Giants are not good. But the Cowboys aren't good either, last week's win notwithstanding. They're winless at home this season, trailing by 21 points in each game, and they too are playing with a backup QB in Cooper Rush. DeVito has an injured forearm and if he doesn't play, Drew Lock will start, which would give the Giants a better chance. It's a little surprising that nearly 12 percent of Survivors would risk their year on this abysmal Cowboys team, no matter the opponent.
