This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week was no doubt a gut punch for many would-be Survivors. Four of the five most popular picks — Packers, Texans, Steelers, Dolphins — lost, and the other team in that five-some, the Ravens, needed an overtime punt return TD to win.
Most Survivor pools have to be nearing an end (if they haven't ended already). In my pool, three Survivors entered last week but only two escaped (on the 49ers and Ravens), with the Packers delivering the knockout. Of the original 414, two remain.
And to newusercl, Polocash7 and segogenesis, sorry the advice on the Texans backfired (maybe I am the jink). Perhaps its small consolation that the other options mentioned in the comments last week lost too (except Cleveland, newusercl). But congrats for making it to Week 14 and for commenting.
On to Week 15.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines, according to BetMGM. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN* | VEGAS ML** | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAMS | Commanders | 36.4% | 270 | 73.0% | 9.84 |
| Chiefs | PATRIOTS | 11.1% | 437.5 | 81.4% | 2.07 |
| 49ers | CARDINALS | 11.0% | 825 | 89.2% | 1.19 |
| BENGALS | Vikings | 9.3% | 167.5 | 62.6% | 3.48 |
| Falcons | PANTHERS | 6.9% | 160 | 61.5% | 2.65 |
| SAINTS | Giants | 5.5% | 237.5 | 70.4% | 1.63 |
| Eagles | SEAHAWKS | 4.9% | 182.5 | 64.6% | 1.73 |
| PACKERS | Buccaneers | 4.1% | 160 | 61.5% | 1.58 |
| DOLPHINS | Jets | 2.7% | 400 | 80.0% | 0.54 |
| BROWNS | Bears | 2.1% | 157.5 | 61.2% |
Last week was no doubt a gut punch for many would-be Survivors. Four of the five most popular picks — Packers, Texans, Steelers, Dolphins — lost, and the other team in that five-some, the Ravens, needed an overtime punt return TD to win.
Most Survivor pools have to be nearing an end (if they haven't ended already). In my pool, three Survivors entered last week but only two escaped (on the 49ers and Ravens), with the Packers delivering the knockout. Of the original 414, two remain.
And to newusercl, Polocash7 and segogenesis, sorry the advice on the Texans backfired (maybe I am the jink). Perhaps its small consolation that the other options mentioned in the comments last week lost too (except Cleveland, newusercl). But congrats for making it to Week 14 and for commenting.
On to Week 15.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines, according to BetMGM. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN* | VEGAS ML** | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAMS | Commanders | 36.4% | 270 | 73.0% | 9.84 |
| Chiefs | PATRIOTS | 11.1% | 437.5 | 81.4% | 2.07 |
| 49ers | CARDINALS | 11.0% | 825 | 89.2% | 1.19 |
| BENGALS | Vikings | 9.3% | 167.5 | 62.6% | 3.48 |
| Falcons | PANTHERS | 6.9% | 160 | 61.5% | 2.65 |
| SAINTS | Giants | 5.5% | 237.5 | 70.4% | 1.63 |
| Eagles | SEAHAWKS | 4.9% | 182.5 | 64.6% | 1.73 |
| PACKERS | Buccaneers | 4.1% | 160 | 61.5% | 1.58 |
| DOLPHINS | Jets | 2.7% | 400 | 80.0% | 0.54 |
| BROWNS | Bears | 2.1% | 157.5 | 61.2% | 0.82 |
| RAIDERS | Chargers | 1.5% | 147.5 | 59.6% | 0.61 |
| COLTS | Steelers | 0.9% | 125 | 55.6% | 0.40 |
| LIONS | Broncos | 0.8% | 205 | 67.2% | 0.26 |
| TITANS | Texans | 0.8% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 0.34 |
| Ravens | JAGUARS | 0.7% | 160 | 61.5% | 0.27 |
| Cowboys | BILLS | 0.1% | 125 | 55.6% | 0.04 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
At first glance, it appears a pot-odds is in play with the Rams 25 percentage points more popular than any team. But it only works if you take the Chiefs, 49ers or Dolphins (all 80-plus percent to win), and if those teams are available, you'd take one this week anyway, regardless.
A pot-odds play doesn't add up with the Bengals, Falcons, Eagles or Packers because their odds are so much worse, i.e., the risk ratio doesn't significantly outweigh the reward ratio. The Saints are the best pot-odds option (risk = 1.15, reward = 1.62), but it's still not overwhelming.
Much more important, we're at the stage where universal data is mostly irrelevant to specific leagues. You're better off checking your competitors' options and strategizing from there.
For example, in my pool the two remaining teams have these options available among teams with the highest odds:
Team A: Cincinnati, Green Bay, Atlanta
Team B: Los Angeles Rams, Cincinnati, Green Bay, Atlanta
If I'm Team B, I'd go with the Rams, because A) highest odds and B) I could win the pool if Team A picks wrong among Cincinnati, Green Bay, Atlanta.
If you're considering a team not listed below or face a difficult decision, leave a note in the comments and we'll work it out together.
Picks below are in order of preference
My Picks
San Francisco 49ers
Barring extraordinary events there's no way the Cardinals keep up with the 49ers. After this week, San Francisco plays vs. Ravens, at Commanders and vs. Rams. This is probably the best spot to use the Niners, if you're still sitting on them.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins are coming off a particularly stunning defeat. That should make them more desperate than usual this week. Zach Wilson played better in his return to the lineup last week, but the Jets benefited more from Texans' injuries and great field position after the Texans were stopped on downs three consecutive fourth-quarter drives. (On the Jets' ensuing drives, they ran 13 plays for -8 yards, settling for three field goals). The Dolphins play vs. Cowboys, at Ravens and vs. Bills in their next three. This is definitely the week to use them.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have lost three of four, including two in a row, and have topped 21 points once in their last six games. The Patriots hung on to win at Pittsburgh last week, which counts for something, but they're still not good. This could become a defensive game in which both offenses struggle in Foxboro. But Patrick Mahomes has never lost three games in a row, and it's doubtful he and the Chiefs don't do enough to escape. That said, Kansas City is at home next week against the Raiders, which seems like a better spot, as does Week 18 at the Chargers.
Philadelphia Eagles
Philly dropped its last two to cap a five-game gauntlet of the Cowboys, Chiefs, Bills, 49ers and Cowboys, going 3-2. The last two weeks, though, have been particularly ugly (outscored 75-32), creating much doubt about the Eagles. Fortunately for them, the Seahawks are thoroughly mediocre, riding the first four-game losing streak of Pete Carroll's Seattle career. The Seattle crowd will be revved up Monday night, but unless perhaps Jamal Adams — can't cover, can't tackle; what's he good for? — is benched, the Seahawks won't slow A.J. Brown and company. There's also the matter of Geno Smith's uncertain status (groin). However, the Eagles have the Giants sandwiched around the Cardinals in their last three games. Two of those games are at Philly, which seems far safer for Survivor (especially the Cardinals).
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons aren't good, but they're better than the Panthers, who seem like they're just playing out the schedule at this point. Plus, the Falcons are still playing for the division.
Cincinnati Bengals
Jake Browning looks like a stud. The Vikings' QB issues are so profound they're turning to Nick Mullens on a short week on the road. And Justin Jefferson is dealing with another injury. Bengals all the way.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers saw their three-game winning streak end Monday against the Giants. Expect a bounce-back this week, at home against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has won two in a row, but both came against weak NFC South opponents. Gametime temperature in Green Bay is expected to be in the 30s, which is another element with which the Floridians must deal.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans are coming off a huge win at Miami on Monday night in which they rallied for 15 points in the final two minutes. That's the sort of energizing victory that can carry over. More important, though, the Texans are severely beaten up — C.J. Stroud (concussion) and Nico Collins (calf) were both knocked out of Sunday's loss to the Jets (and they were already without Tank Dell for the season). Titans at home for the win.
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams took the Ravens to overtime last week and are definitely better than the Commanders, who have dropped their last four. There's a also a big mismatch with the Rams' passing game vs. the league's lowest-ranked pass defense. Washington is coming off a bye, however, and the Rams aren't exactly a juggernaut. It wouldn't surprise if this game went sideways.
Notable Omission:
New Orleans Saints
The Giants are playing with confidence and Tommy DeVito is playing decently — no INTs during their three-game winning streak. The Saints aren't good, losers for seven of their last 11. Sure they waxed the Panthers last week, but who doesn't (other than Tampa Bay)? How does this matchup inspire enough confidence for a Survivor pick?
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