Survivor: Week 15 Strategy & Picks

There were some close calls last week, but much went according to form — unless you had the Raiders like our pal dodgerglen. As he informed us in the comments last week, his pool was down to him and one other guy. He took the Raiders on this column's advice, but was stand up enough about it to declare before the game that it was on him if the Raiders lost. Still, I watched in horror as the Raiders allowed a 98-yard game-winning drive with less than two minutes to play to a quarterback in Baker Mayfield who joined the Rams two days prior. Apparently, the Raiders have never heard of prevent defense. Hopefully, that other fella lost too and dodgerglen is still alive (in all senses of the word). 

In my pool, seven of the remaining 10 were eliminated — three on Seattle, two on Tennessee and one on Las Vegas. Of the original 410 entrants, three Survivors remain. 

On to Week 15. 

Again, we encourage you to read here and here for the methodology behind this Survivor strategy.

Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing. Home teams in CAPS.

At this point in the season, the Vegas favorites likely are not available — Chiefs, Eagles, Bills, Packers (Week 4 was a big one for Packers backers). However, there are some decent options this week that probably are available in most pools. 

A couple things to keep in mind as we enter Week 15:

First, while we don't encourage looking ahead early in the season (because so much can change week to week, let alone Week 1 to Week 12), now is the time to check future matchups of available teams. For example, if the Bills are still an option, maybe you want to save them for next week against the Bears. 

Also, check which teams your opponents have available and make an educated guess as to who will be picked; the percentage-taken numbers above are noisy this time of year and might starkly deviate from your pool. So, gameplan it out. Hopefully, you can glean approximate ownership numbers and find a pot-odds play to win the pool. 

Picks below are in order of preference. If none of the teams below are available, we can discuss your options in the comments. 

My Picks

Kansas City Chiefs

It's actually surprising that nearly 13 percent of pickers still have the Chiefs available. Use 'em if you got 'em. The Texans put up a valiant fight in their Super Bowl last week against the state-rival Cowboys, but that likely was the last gasp in a season of misery. Plus, Dameon Pierce is not expected to play. 

Philadelphia Eagles

The only thing the Bears have going for them is the game is at Soldier Field. That won't be enough. 

Green Bay Packers

The Packers are not good, with two wins in their last nine games, but the Rams are barely hanging on. Baker Mayfield's inspiring comeback last week was only made possible by an avalanche of defensive ineptitude on the part of the Raiders. (Mayfield might not be good, but he's good enough to recognize the gift of press coverage with 15 seconds left and to throw the ball up for grabs and let his receiver make a play.) Perhaps Aaron Donald returns this week, but Bobby Wagner might have to make another 14 tackles. Coming off a bye and at Lambeau Field on what is expected to be a brutally cold Monday night (game-time forecast: 9 degrees), the Packers have enough to beat a Rams team running a dumbed-down gameplan for a QB still learning the playbook. 

Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota's biggest problem is a pass defense that is the league's lowest ranked. Fortunately for them, the Vikings face a Colts team that seems incapable of exploiting that flaw. Indianapolis is one of three teams with more interceptions than TD passes (Steelers, Texans). 

New Orleans Saints

The Falcons plan to start rookie QB Desmond Ridder at New Orleans. In addition to the obvious pitfalls facing a QB in his NFL debut, Ridder has the same problem Marcus Mariota had — who's he throwing to? And if Marshon Lattimore returns as expected, Ridder's only quality target, Drake London, likely will slowed, if not shut down. Since Week 8, the Saints have allowed 16.2 points per game, fourth fewest in the league. They're also coming off a bye. 

Washington Commanders

At first glance, it might not seem wise to risk a Survivor pick on matchup of division rivals that are relatively even — these teams tied two weeks ago at New York, after all. But following that sister smooch, Washington had a bye. That means, the Commanders will have had three weeks of gameplanning against the Giants. New York got clobbered last week by the Eagles and has one win in its last six games. Washington is 6-1-1 in its last eight. 

Buffalo Bills

Tyreek Hill is expected to again play through an ankle injury. If he can't go, then the Dolphins' offense, which has sputtered the last two weeks, really will be in trouble. Either way, with freezing temperature and possible snow for an 8:15 p.m. EST kickoff Saturday, the Dolphins' recent struggles figure to continue. 

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers showed last week what they're capable of when healthy. It was just the fourth game Keenan Allen and Mike Williams have played together this season. Baring another fluky fumble return TD and going 2-for-6 in the red zone again, this week's game shouldn't be as close. Tennessee's passing game is a failure, with seven games this season of less than 200 yards. Unless the Titans just pound it 50 times with Derrick Henry to burn clock and keep the Chargers off the field, it's hard to see how Tennessee keeps up.

Notable Omission:

San Francisco 49ers

This is similar to the Seahawks' game last week. Everything on paper said the Seahawks should beat the Panthers. But they pretty much got waxed. In this one, the 49ers have everything going for them. Rookie Brock Purdy looked the part last week, making some big throws to lead a thumping of the Buccaneers. Christian McCaffrey should run all over a weak Seattle run defense. The Niners' defense has been unreal for more than a month. But at home on Thursday night with Kenneth Walker back, the Seahawks should put up a tougher fight than San Francisco's recent opponents. During their six-game winning streak, the 49ers faced the four lowest-ranked rushing offenses in the league and two mediocre-at-best ones. And for as good as Purdy looked last week, this is the first road test of his career. I don't like it.

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