This article is part of our Survivor series.
Many a Survivor pool no doubt hinged on the greatest comeback in NFL history last week. If you survived with the Vikings, congratulations ... but realize you've probably used up all your luck for a lifetime.
Most of the other favorites cashed, expect for Washington, which lost to the Giants. The Chiefs needed overtime to beat the Texans, which would have caused some chaos had they lost as about 13 percent of pickers had Kansas City.
Of the original 410 entrants in my pool, the three of the remaining players survived — two on the Vikings, one on the Bills. (The Bills guy must have been apoplectic.)
On to Week 16.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing. Home teams in CAPS.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TITANS | Texans | 32.3% | 214 | 68.2% | 10.29 |
| 49ERS | Commanders | 20.0% | 316 | 76.0% | 4.81 |
| Buccaneers | CARDINALS | 12.1% | 249 | 71.3% | 3.47 |
| Bills | BEARS | 9.7% | 394 | 79.8% | 1.96 |
| Chargers | COLTS | 6.2% | 189 | 65.4% | 2.15 |
| Lions | PANTHERS | 3.6% | 137 | 57.8% | 1.52 |
| CHIEFS | Seahawks | 3.2% | 402.5 | 80.1% | 0.64 |
| RAVENS | Falcons | 2.8% | 321 | 76.2% | 0.67 |
| DOLPHINS | Packers | 2.1% | 189 | 65.4% | 0.73 |
| Bengals | PATRIOTS | 1.8% | 172 | 63.2% | 0.66 |
| BROWNS | Saints | 1.4% | 131.5 | 56.8% | 0.60 |
| VIKINGS | Giants | 1.3% | 160 | 61.5% | 0.50 |
| STEELERS | Raiders | 1.2% | 142 | 58.7% | 0.50 |
| Jaguars | JETS | 0.6% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.29 |
| Broncos |
Many a Survivor pool no doubt hinged on the greatest comeback in NFL history last week. If you survived with the Vikings, congratulations ... but realize you've probably used up all your luck for a lifetime.
Most of the other favorites cashed, expect for Washington, which lost to the Giants. The Chiefs needed overtime to beat the Texans, which would have caused some chaos had they lost as about 13 percent of pickers had Kansas City.
Of the original 410 entrants in my pool, the three of the remaining players survived — two on the Vikings, one on the Bills. (The Bills guy must have been apoplectic.)
On to Week 16.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing. Home teams in CAPS.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TITANS | Texans | 32.3% | 214 | 68.2% | 10.29 |
| 49ERS | Commanders | 20.0% | 316 | 76.0% | 4.81 |
| Buccaneers | CARDINALS | 12.1% | 249 | 71.3% | 3.47 |
| Bills | BEARS | 9.7% | 394 | 79.8% | 1.96 |
| Chargers | COLTS | 6.2% | 189 | 65.4% | 2.15 |
| Lions | PANTHERS | 3.6% | 137 | 57.8% | 1.52 |
| CHIEFS | Seahawks | 3.2% | 402.5 | 80.1% | 0.64 |
| RAVENS | Falcons | 2.8% | 321 | 76.2% | 0.67 |
| DOLPHINS | Packers | 2.1% | 189 | 65.4% | 0.73 |
| Bengals | PATRIOTS | 1.8% | 172 | 63.2% | 0.66 |
| BROWNS | Saints | 1.4% | 131.5 | 56.8% | 0.60 |
| VIKINGS | Giants | 1.3% | 160 | 61.5% | 0.50 |
| STEELERS | Raiders | 1.2% | 142 | 58.7% | 0.50 |
| Jaguars | JETS | 0.6% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.29 |
| Broncos | RAMS | 0.2% | 125 | 55.6% | 0.09 |
| COWBOYS | Eagles | 0.2% | 182.5 | 64.6% | 0.07 |
At this point, be sure to look at the next couple weeks and weigh matchups vs. the teams you have left. We're 15 weeks in, which leaves 17 teams available, but probably 10 of those would never be options. That means, you have about seven teams left for the next three weeks. Gameplan it out, considering your remaining options and your opponents' remaining options. As mentioned last week, the ownership numbers above are noisy this time of year.
If you've gotten this far, you've probably already used this week's biggest favorites — the Chiefs and Bills. But there are plenty of quality picks available. Picks below are in order of preference. If none of the teams below are available, we can discuss options in the comments.
MY PICKS
San Francisco 49ers
Guess I should trust Brock Purdy. The 49ers were the "Notable Omission" each of the last two weeks, and each time had little trouble. Purdy has played well, though he got away with a couple passes last week that — who knows — might have changed the game had they been intercepted. Nevertheless, this week the 49ers are at home against a Commanders offense that has averaged 18.5 points in its last four. Even if Purdy regresses, San Francisco's defense should take care of Washington convincingly. The 49ers are at the Raiders next week and then at home vs. the Cardinals in Week 18. The season finale looks like a great spot, though San Francisco likely will rest starters for the playoffs that game.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills travel to Chicago, but that's about the only negative for them against the Bears. As long as Buffalo's defense keeps Justin Fields somewhat contained, the Bills should win. This is the spot to use the Bills if you've been waiting — the Bengals and Patriots await the next two weeks.
Kansas City Chiefs
Losers of four of their last five, the Seahawks' biggest problem is a weak and error-prone defense that the Chiefs should exploit all day. The Seahawks have just eight sacks in their last five games and are last in the league vs. tight ends. That's not a good combo when facing Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. However, those who have saved the Chiefs might want to wait another week as they play the visiting Broncos in Week 17.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Colts jumped to a 33-0 lead last week thanks to four field goals and TD returns on a blocked punt and interception — the offense scored one touchdown in all that. A juggernaut this is not. Now, Jonathan Taylor is out, and, of course, the weight of blowing the largest lead in league history likely still hangs over the team. Justin Herbert should carve up the Indy defense after Kirk Cousins passed for 460 yards. The Chargers, though, are worth saving for next week when they play the Rams.
Baltimore Ravens
As of this writing, Lamar Jackson still wasn't ready to practice. If he plays, the Ravens are a seemingly safe bet against a Falcons team that arguably got worse with the switch to rookie Desmond Ridder at quarterback. If Jackson is out again, I wouldn't be quick to trust my Survivor pick to Tyler Huntley after last week's brutal performance. However, it's hard to imagine Ridder doing much in his road debut against Baltimore's fourth-ranked scoring defense, and this is a better place to use the Ravens than either of the next two weeks when they play the Steelers and Bengals.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay has major issues on both sides of the ball, but Arizona could have Trace McSorley at quarterback with Kyler Murray out and Colt McCoy dealing with a concussion. Advantage Bucs. The Cardinals allow a league-high 26.6 points per game, which could make even the ugly Tampa Bay offense look decent. Tampa Bay is not a good option the next two weeks with division games on tap.
Detroit Lions
After losing their first three on the road this season (Vikings, Patriots, Cowboys), the Lions have won their last three (Bears, Giants, Jets), including last week at New York. The Panthers would seem to fall into the latter category of opponents. Carolina is 3-1 in NFC South and 2-8 in non-division games. Detroit has won six of its last seven, the only loss coming on a last-second field goal against the Bills. The Lions return home next week to face the Bears, which would be a good spot too.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins lost their last three games, but all were on the road against quality opponents with an average margin of defeat of 8.3 points — one score, essentially. This is a great opportunity to get right at home against a bad Packers team that has three wins in its last 10, only one of which came against a good team (vs. Cowboys; the other two were the Bears and Rams). This is probably a better spot to use the Dolphins than either of the next two weeks when they play division opponents.
Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys at home against Gardner Minshew with the division title still possible? Sure, I'll take that if I'm desperate. If Jalen Hurts plays, then pass.
Notable Omission:
Tennessee Titans
The Titans are not good. They've lost four in a row, have no real passing game and have the lowest-ranked pass defense in the league. The Texans, meanwhile, have been surprisingly competitive the last two weeks against good teams, taking the Cowboys and Chiefs to the wire. Derrick Henry might need another 200-yard game against the Texans to win. That's certainly possible, but I can't in good conscience stake my Survivor bid to the Titans. I get the anti-Texans play, but the Vegas odds aren't even that great for nearly a third of entrants to be on the Titans.
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