This article is part of our Survivor series.
If you stuck to the top team in the field last week, the Ravens, you didn't have to sweat out Week 1. If you got cute, well, you were either sweating profusely or are now dead.
The Chiefs (a fade for us) losing and the Commanders and Jaguars not putting away their opponents until late in the fourth quarter were not surprising. The Vikings (our second-ranked option) and Seahawks (third) losing, however, was something else. Minnesota's loss seems kind of fluky considering the turnovers near or in the red zone. Seattle, though, got killed.
Full disclosure, I'm a life-long Seahawks fan. I like to think I have a pretty good bead on their prospects in a given week, and I usually lean pessimistic. But I did not see that one coming. Total failure in the second half. Twelve yards of offense? -8 passing yards? How is that possible? It's 2023, not 1923!
Hopefully, you played it safe and went with the Ravens, as advised. Alas, in my Survivor pool, 86 of the 414 entrants (20.7 percent) did not and were eliminated.
On to Week 2.
As usual, you are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind our Survivor strategy.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN* | VEGAS ML** | VEGAS ODDS |
|---|
If you stuck to the top team in the field last week, the Ravens, you didn't have to sweat out Week 1. If you got cute, well, you were either sweating profusely or are now dead.
The Chiefs (a fade for us) losing and the Commanders and Jaguars not putting away their opponents until late in the fourth quarter were not surprising. The Vikings (our second-ranked option) and Seahawks (third) losing, however, was something else. Minnesota's loss seems kind of fluky considering the turnovers near or in the red zone. Seattle, though, got killed.
Full disclosure, I'm a life-long Seahawks fan. I like to think I have a pretty good bead on their prospects in a given week, and I usually lean pessimistic. But I did not see that one coming. Total failure in the second half. Twelve yards of offense? -8 passing yards? How is that possible? It's 2023, not 1923!
Hopefully, you played it safe and went with the Ravens, as advised. Alas, in my Survivor pool, 86 of the 414 entrants (20.7 percent) did not and were eliminated.
On to Week 2.
As usual, you are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind our Survivor strategy.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN* | VEGAS ML** | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BILLS | Raiders | 28% | 391.5 | 79.7% | 5.64 |
| COWBOYS | Jets | 22% | 400 | 80.0% | 4.46 |
| 49ers | RAMS | 11% | 332.5 | 76.9% | 2.57 |
| EAGLES | Vikings | 11% | 270 | 73.0% | 2.95 |
| Giants | CARDINALS | 10% | 225 | 69.2% | 2.92 |
| LIONS | Seahawks | 6% | 222.5 | 69.0% | 1.80 |
| BRONCOS | Commanders | 2% | 167.5 | 62.6% | 0.82 |
| Saints | PANTHERS | 2% | 152.5 | 60.4% | 0.79 |
| Chargers | TITANS | 2% | 160 | 61.5% | 0.62 |
| BUCCANEERS | Bears | 2% | 147.5 | 59.6% | 0.61 |
| Dolphins | PATRIOTS | 1% | 127.5 | 56.0% | 0.40 |
| Colts | TEXANS | 1% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.37 |
| Browns | STEELERS | 1% | 127.5 | 56.0% | 0.35 |
| Chiefs | JAGUARS | 1% | 147.5 | 59.6% | 0.28 |
| Packers | FALCONS | 1% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.29 |
| BENGALS | Ravens | 0% | 160 | 61.5% | 0.12 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
The Bills and Cowboys are the top teams this week, and as they are close in popularity, a pot-odds play is not a factor. So, it's a pick-who-you-want week.
The 49ers aren't far behind those two in odds, but their popularity is much lower. Perhaps pickers are saving the 49ers for later in the season. Going with the Bills or Cowboys is the play this week, but not because you want to save the 49ers or anyone else.
We have no idea what the NFL will look like in a month or two. Indeed, the only things we can really say is that 1) teams don't stay the same week to week, let alone all year and 2) you're likely to be eliminated before you even get use that saved pick.
But it goes further than that. If you save a team for the week it faces the worst team in the league, guess what? The majority of your pool is probably using that team too. In that case, the smart play is no longer the team you saved, the smart play is a pot-odds pick — taking the next-best team with the hope that everyone goes down with the most popular pick.
Picks below are in order of preference.
MY PICKS
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys and Bills (see below) are about equal this week, but Dallas gets Zach Wilson. Wilson survived the Bills last week — thanks to defense and special teams — in an emotional roller-coaster of a game at home on Monday night. He won't have any of that working for him this week, save for perhaps a Jets defense that could stymie the Cowboys. It's hard to get a read on the Cowboys' offense — it wasn't asked to do much last week because the defense made the Giants totally inept. But even if the Jets' defense keeps New York in it, it's hard to see how Wilson overcomes the Dallas D.
Buffalo Bills
Four Josh Allen turnovers doomed the Bills last week against the Wilson-led Jets. That's unlikely to happen this week against a Raiders defense that forced no turnovers and one three-and-out against the Broncos. The Raiders needed four Denver special teams miscues, including a missed field goal and missed extra point, to squeak by the Broncos by a point. If Allen reins in his inner gunslinger just a bit, the Bills should have little trouble taking out their frustrations on the Raiders. Unlike the Cowboys, though, the Bills haven't shown us anything yet, which is another reason the Cowboys get the nod over the Bills.
San Francisco 49ers
The Niners laid a smackdown on the Steelers last week in Pittsburgh. They rolled up nearly 400 yards of offense while holding the Steelers to 3.9 yards per play. This week they travel to face a Rams team coming off an unexpected dismantling of the Seahawks. A division road game doesn't usually scream "Surivor pick," but Los Angeles isn't an intimidating place to play — indeed, the 49ers have won six of their last seven regular-season games at L.A. (2-1 at Sofi Stadium) — and the Rams will have nowhere near the opportunities to move the ball that the Seahawks defense afforded last week.
New York Giants
It's not often a team looks as bad as the Giants did last week. Fortunately for them, a trip to Arizona should right the ship. The Cardinals hung with Washington last week despite not scoring an offensive touchdown. If the Giants avoid self-inflicted wounds, they should whack the Cardinals, who are led by career backup Joshua Dobbs and have zero offensive playmakers.
Denver Broncos
We're only in Week 2 and saving teams for the future is a fool's errand (see above), so there's no reason to dig this deep. That said, the Broncos, coming off a loss, at home against a Washington team that barely beat the Cardinals last week (and was sacked six times) seems reasonable. Denver killed itself with special teams gaffs last week. Maybe the Broncos are no better than last year, but I'm willing to bet on Sean Payton until he proves otherwise.
Notable Omission:
Philadelphia Eagles
Minnesota laid an egg last week at home. This week, the Vikings travel to defending NFC champ Philadelphia. The Eagles probably win, but it won't be surprising if the Vikings at least make them sweat it out. Philadelphia wasn't exactly gangbusters in its win at New England last week (one offensive TD), and the Vikings killed themselves with three first-half turnovers, including two inside the Tampa Bay 30. That was a bad loss, and Minnesota is probably the more motivated team.
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