This article is part of our Survivor series.
If you're going to have a philosophy, a strategy, a belief system, a code, you better live by it. Otherwise, what's the point?
That's what I was thinking as the Bengals defecated down their leg Sunday.
Last week's article started with the admonition to pick Week 1 Survivor with conviction. I was never convicted on taking the Bengals (heck, read last week's writeup). In fact, after stewing all weekend, I resolved to change the pick the Sunday morning. But, for reasons unknown, I never did. Part of it was I wasn't entirely sold on the Bills, so I ruminated on that far too long. I considered changing to the Seahawks, on whom I was fairly confident.
Worse still, the pot-odds play last week was to fade the Bengals. Initially, I went that route, but after my math was corrected in the comments (again, great catch, Rmiktus), the risk/reward ratio was less favorable than originally thought, so I reflexively pivoted back to the Bengals. But the reward still outweighed the risk of fading the Bengals, even if not significantly so. That was the better play from a pot-odds strategy.
Rambling about your missed Survivor pick is a little like complaining when you're fantasy team chokes — no one cares. But at least we who took the Bengals can commiserate together. (Then again, why would anyone who lost be reading this week?)
In any event, the Bengals' loss thinned a lot of Survivor pools. In my pool, of the 441 entrants, 178
If you're going to have a philosophy, a strategy, a belief system, a code, you better live by it. Otherwise, what's the point?
That's what I was thinking as the Bengals defecated down their leg Sunday.
Last week's article started with the admonition to pick Week 1 Survivor with conviction. I was never convicted on taking the Bengals (heck, read last week's writeup). In fact, after stewing all weekend, I resolved to change the pick the Sunday morning. But, for reasons unknown, I never did. Part of it was I wasn't entirely sold on the Bills, so I ruminated on that far too long. I considered changing to the Seahawks, on whom I was fairly confident.
Worse still, the pot-odds play last week was to fade the Bengals. Initially, I went that route, but after my math was corrected in the comments (again, great catch, Rmiktus), the risk/reward ratio was less favorable than originally thought, so I reflexively pivoted back to the Bengals. But the reward still outweighed the risk of fading the Bengals, even if not significantly so. That was the better play from a pot-odds strategy.
Rambling about your missed Survivor pick is a little like complaining when you're fantasy team chokes — no one cares. But at least we who took the Bengals can commiserate together. (Then again, why would anyone who lost be reading this week?)
In any event, the Bengals' loss thinned a lot of Survivor pools. In my pool, of the 441 entrants, 178 were eliminated (40.4 percent), 162 on the Bengals.
On to Week 2.
As usual, you are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind our Survivor strategy.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN* | VEGAS ML** | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAVENS | Raiders | 34.5% | 400 | 80.0% | 6.90 |
| Chargers | PANTHERS | 19.5% | 247.5 | 71.2% | 5.61 |
| TEXANS | Bears | 10.0% | 305 | 75.3% | 2.47 |
| EAGLES | Falcons | 7.4% | 270 | 73.0% | 2.00 |
| LIONS | Buccaneers | 5.3% | 305 | 75.3% | 1.31 |
| COWBOYS | Saints | 5.0% | 270 | 73.0% | 1.35 |
| CHIEFS | Bengals | 3.2% | 225 | 69.2% | 0.98 |
| 49ers | VIKINGS | 2.8% | 247.5 | 71.2% | 0.81 |
| COMMANDERS | Giants | 2.5% | 115 | 53.5% | 1.16 |
| Colts | PACKERS | 2.3% | 167.5 | 62.6% | 0.86 |
| Jets | TITANS | 2.0% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 0.73 |
| JAGUARS | Browns | 1.5% | 160 | 61.5% | 0.58 |
| Steelers | BRONCOS | 1.2% | 142.5 | 58.8% | 0.49 |
| Seahawks | PATRIOTS | 1.1% | 167.5 | 62.6% | 0.41 |
| Dolphins | BILLS | 0.3% | 127.5 | 56.0% | 0.13 |
| Rams | CARDINALS | 0.2% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.09 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
The Ravens are a heavy favorite this week, but the disparity in taken percentage vs. the second-most popular team, the Chargers, isn't large enough to warrant a pot-odds play. However, the Texans, according to Vegas odds, have a 75 percent chance of winning to the Ravens' 80 percent and are owned by only 10 percent of pickers to the Ravens' 35 percent. Are the Texans a pot-odds play? Let's dive in.
A Ravens win/Texas loss is .80 (Ravens Vegas Odds of winning) multiplied by .25 (Texans' Vegas Odds of losing, rounded), which is 20.0 percent. A Texans win/Ravens loss is .75*.20 = 15.0 percent.
That means the risk ratio is 20.0/15.0= 1.3.
For the reward ratio, we'll use our usual hypothetical $10 buy-in, 100-person pool. If the Ravens win/Texans lose, 10 are out on the Texans plus another 16 non-Texans owners projected to lose, for 26 total losers. 100-26 = 74 remaining owners, $1,000/74 = $13.51 in equity.
If the Texans win/Ravens lose, it's 35 out on the Ravens, plus 16 more, for 51 total losers. 100-51 = 49, $1,000/49= $20.40.
The ratio of $20.40/$13.51 is 1.5.
So, the risk ratio of picking the Texans is 1.3, but the reward is 1.5. That's less than it was last week with the Bengals-Bills, but like last week, it's still a pot-odds play.
The Lions are in an even better boat with 75 percent odds to win and only 5.3 percent ownership.
Picks below are in order of preference,
My Picks
Houston Texans
The Bears won last week with defense and special teams. They probably can't make that work two weeks in a row. If Caleb Williams doesn't improve rapidly this week, it likely will be a long day in his first road start.
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens ran for 185 yards last week against the Chiefs and now face a defense in the Raiders who gave up 176 rushing yards to the Chargers. Advantage Ravens. Another advantage is playing Gardner Minshew in Baltimore. The Ravens have big expectations this year, and a win here is a must.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Panthers' opponent likely will be the go-to for many a Survivor participant this season. This week, that's the Chargers. The only negative is the cross-country travel for the Chargers. The Panthers' problems are much more than Bryce Young, though. The Saints had 11 possessions last week vs. the Panthers. Here are the first nine: TD, FG, TD, FG, FG, TD, TD, FG, TD. And the Carolina defense is now without its best player in DT Derrick Brown thanks to a season-ending injury. Playing at home won't be enough for the Panthers.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts travel to Green Bay at the perfect time, with Malik Willis taking over for Jordan Love, who is expected to be out with a knee injury. The Packers traded for Willis just before the season, but it remains a mystery why. Suffice to say, Willis is not an NFL-caliber quarterback. Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor should take advantage of the Packers on the ground too.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville should have won last week against Miami and now gets a Browns team that looked worse than awful at home against the Cowboys. The offensive line let Deshaun Watson get pounded, and in the rare instances when he did have time, he looked like a broken QB.
Detroit Lions
The Buccaneers looked good against a bad Washington team last week, but a matchup in Detroit against an explosive Lions team doesn't bode well. It's possible the Lions suffer a bit of a letdown after their stirring overtime win last week, but they should still squeak it out, even if they don't cover the big Vegas number.
Philadelphia Eagles
Atlanta is coming off a bad home loss to Pittsburgh and now travels to Philadelphia. As long as the long trip back from Brazil didn't take the steam out of the Eagles, they should win Monday night. How do Falcons corral the Philly offense? Atlanta is not going to hold the Eagles to measly field goals the way it did Pittsburgh last week.
Notable Omission:
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas dominated at home last season, but it would just be like the Cowboys to cough one up after an impressive showing in Week 1. Despite the lop-sided score, the Cowboys' offense wasn't all that great last week, often settling for field goals after failing to take advantage of short fields. It also feels a bit like the Saints' win is being discounted too much because of the opponent (Panthers). The Cowboys probably win, but I'd take the 6.5 points.
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