This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week went relatively smoothly in Survivor world, except for those who tried to play it cute. The Cowboys and Bills were the obvious choices, and if you faded those two in hopes of saving them or for some other (bad) reason, see you next year.
In my pool, 35 players went the cute route and paid for it. Of the original 414 entrants, 328 remain.
On to Week 3.
As usual, you are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind this Survivor strategy.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHIEFS | Bears | 23.9% | 637.5 | 86.4% | 3.24 |
| JAGUARS | Texans | 22.4% | 400 | 80.0% | 4.48 |
| 49ERS | Giants | 17.5% | 475 | 82.6% | 3.04 |
| Cowboys | CARDINALS | 17.1% | 600 | 85.7% | 2.44 |
| RAVENS | Colts | 6.2% | 350 | 77.8% | 1.38 |
| SEAHAWKS | Panthers | 5.1% | 225 | 69.2% | 1.57 |
| DOLPHINS | Broncos | 3.6% | 265 | 72.6% | 0.99 |
| Bills | COMMANDERS | 1.0% | 265 | 72.6% | 0.27 |
| LIONS | Falcons | 0.6% | 152.5 | 60.4% | 0.24 |
| Patriots | JETS | 0.6% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 0.25 |
| Eagles | BUCCANEERS | 0.5% | 205 | 67.2% | 0.16 |
| BENGALS | Rams | 0.2% | 120 | 54.5% | 0.09 |
| RAIDERS | Steelers | 0.2% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 0.09 |
| PACKERS | Saints | 0.1% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.05 |
| BROWNS | Titans | 0.1% | 147.5 | 59.6% | 0.04 |
| VIKINGS | Chargers | 0.1% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.05 |
| Chargers | VIKINGS | 0.1% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.05 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
Last week went relatively smoothly in Survivor world, except for those who tried to play it cute. The Cowboys and Bills were the obvious choices, and if you faded those two in hopes of saving them or for some other (bad) reason, see you next year.
In my pool, 35 players went the cute route and paid for it. Of the original 414 entrants, 328 remain.
On to Week 3.
As usual, you are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind this Survivor strategy.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHIEFS | Bears | 23.9% | 637.5 | 86.4% | 3.24 |
| JAGUARS | Texans | 22.4% | 400 | 80.0% | 4.48 |
| 49ERS | Giants | 17.5% | 475 | 82.6% | 3.04 |
| Cowboys | CARDINALS | 17.1% | 600 | 85.7% | 2.44 |
| RAVENS | Colts | 6.2% | 350 | 77.8% | 1.38 |
| SEAHAWKS | Panthers | 5.1% | 225 | 69.2% | 1.57 |
| DOLPHINS | Broncos | 3.6% | 265 | 72.6% | 0.99 |
| Bills | COMMANDERS | 1.0% | 265 | 72.6% | 0.27 |
| LIONS | Falcons | 0.6% | 152.5 | 60.4% | 0.24 |
| Patriots | JETS | 0.6% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 0.25 |
| Eagles | BUCCANEERS | 0.5% | 205 | 67.2% | 0.16 |
| BENGALS | Rams | 0.2% | 120 | 54.5% | 0.09 |
| RAIDERS | Steelers | 0.2% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 0.09 |
| PACKERS | Saints | 0.1% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.05 |
| BROWNS | Titans | 0.1% | 147.5 | 59.6% | 0.04 |
| VIKINGS | Chargers | 0.1% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.05 |
| Chargers | VIKINGS | 0.1% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.05 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
Interesting week as four teams have a combined 80.9 percent of the vote. As such, there is no pot-odds play. The Cowboys, who have the highest Vegas odds next to the Chiefs, likely would be more popular (17.2 percent) had nearly a fourth of survivalists not used them last week.
Picks below are listed in order of preference.
My Picks
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs' offense has been non-Chiefs like for two games, scoring 20 and 17 points. But Travis Kelce missed Week 1 and was less than 100 percent healthy Week 2, so perhaps another week of improved health will mean good things for Patrick Mahomes and company. This week's opponent, the Bears, should mean even better things for K.C. Chicago also has scored 20 and 17 points in its first two games, but its given up 65 (the Chiefs have allowed 30). The Chiefs let us down in Week 3 last season (we haven't forgotten), but this time they're at home against a team that can't really run, pass or defend. If the Chiefs blow this one, so be it.
Dallas Cowboys
If you didn't use the Cowboys last week, this is a pretty good spot. The Cowboys are rolling and the Cardinals are not. Well, they were before giving up 24 unanswered points in the last 18 minutes Sunday to lose to the visiting Giants.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars struggled offensively at home last week but gave up only 17 points to the Chiefs. The offense has a chance to fix itself against the Texans, and the defense should beat up on a Houston offense that averages 62 rushing yards a game (29th) and has allowed a league-high 11 sacks. A miffed J-ville team against the dregs of the league should be a safe Survivor pick (knock on wood).
San Francisco 49ers
The Niners' defense is nails and the Giants likely will be without Saquon Barkley (ankle) on Thursday night. That's a tough combo for New York. But Thursday games have been known to go off the rails, and there's little reason not to take one of the above teams before you go messing with this one.
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are beat up but are 2-0 anyway. This week, they play host to a Colts team that is without Jonathan Taylor and might be without Anthony Richardson (concussion). Gardner Minshew isn't a normal backup, though, and Baltimore is missing its No. 1 running back too in J.K. Dobbins. The Ravens should still win, but why take the risk with so many better options on the board? Plus, the Ravens were our Week 1 pick, so they're probably out for most.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks bounced back last week in a game in which everything pointed the other way. They might be set up for a letdown this week, except they're probably eager to give the home fans a better showing than they did in their Week 1 loss. The Panthers allowed four sacks in each of their first two games, and counting on a rookie QB in front of the Seattle crowd is a big ask.
Notable Omission:
Miami Dolphins
There is no reason why the Dolphins should lose at home to the Broncos, except that the Broncos are in a must-win situation and NFL teams backed into a corner are often dangerous. If Sean Payton doesn't rein in Russell Wilson's sandlot style, the Broncos might never win, which makes this week a huge test — it's win or go home. There are plenty better bets than this.
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