This article is part of our Survivor series.
And that's why fading an overwhelming favorite should always be a strong consideration. The Packers needed overtime to beat the Patriots last week, which, unfortunately, let the majority of Survivor picks off the hook. Had they lost, many pools would be down to the last handful of players.
Woulda, shoulda, coulda.
In my Survivor pool, 54 of the remaining 92 entries picked the Packers. In the end, only eight pickers were eliminated. Of the original 410 entries, 84 remain.
On to Week 5.
As usual, you are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind this Survivor strategy.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing. Home teams in CAPS.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BILLS | Steelers | 37.2% | 754.5 | 88.30% | 4.35 |
| BUCCANEERS | Falcons | 19.6% | 342.5 | 77.40% | 4.43 |
| JAGUARS | Texans | 15.0% | 296.5 | 74.78% | 3.78 |
| VIKINGS | Bears | 9.9% | 271.5 | 73.08% | 2.66 |
| Packers | Giants** | 5.2% | 355 | 78.02% | 1.14 |
| 49ers | PANTHERS | 3.9% | 249 | 71.35% | 1.12 |
| CHIEFS | Raiders | 3.5% | 296.5 | 74.78% | 0.88 |
| SAINTS | Seahawks | 1.5% | 201 | 66.78% | 0.50 |
| BRONCOS | Colts | 0.6% | 160 | 61.54% | 0.23 |
| EAGLES | Cardinals | 0.6% | 206 | 67.32% | 0.20 |
| Titans | COMMANDERS | 0.6% | 121 | 54.75% | 0.27 |
| Dolphins | JETS | 0.5% | 172 | 63.24% | 0.18 |
| RAMS | Cowboys | 0.4% | 206 | 67.32% | 0.13 |
| PATRIOTS | Lions | 0.4% | 131.5 | 56.80% | 0.17 |
| Chargers | BROWNS | 0.2% | 149.5 | 59.92% | 0.08 |
| RAVENS | Bengals | 0.1% | 160 | 61.54% | 0.04 |
And that's why fading an overwhelming favorite should always be a strong consideration. The Packers needed overtime to beat the Patriots last week, which, unfortunately, let the majority of Survivor picks off the hook. Had they lost, many pools would be down to the last handful of players.
Woulda, shoulda, coulda.
In my Survivor pool, 54 of the remaining 92 entries picked the Packers. In the end, only eight pickers were eliminated. Of the original 410 entries, 84 remain.
On to Week 5.
As usual, you are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind this Survivor strategy.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing. Home teams in CAPS.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BILLS | Steelers | 37.2% | 754.5 | 88.30% | 4.35 |
| BUCCANEERS | Falcons | 19.6% | 342.5 | 77.40% | 4.43 |
| JAGUARS | Texans | 15.0% | 296.5 | 74.78% | 3.78 |
| VIKINGS | Bears | 9.9% | 271.5 | 73.08% | 2.66 |
| Packers | Giants** | 5.2% | 355 | 78.02% | 1.14 |
| 49ers | PANTHERS | 3.9% | 249 | 71.35% | 1.12 |
| CHIEFS | Raiders | 3.5% | 296.5 | 74.78% | 0.88 |
| SAINTS | Seahawks | 1.5% | 201 | 66.78% | 0.50 |
| BRONCOS | Colts | 0.6% | 160 | 61.54% | 0.23 |
| EAGLES | Cardinals | 0.6% | 206 | 67.32% | 0.20 |
| Titans | COMMANDERS | 0.6% | 121 | 54.75% | 0.27 |
| Dolphins | JETS | 0.5% | 172 | 63.24% | 0.18 |
| RAMS | Cowboys | 0.4% | 206 | 67.32% | 0.13 |
| PATRIOTS | Lions | 0.4% | 131.5 | 56.80% | 0.17 |
| Chargers | BROWNS | 0.2% | 149.5 | 59.92% | 0.08 |
| RAVENS | Bengals | 0.1% | 160 | 61.54% | 0.04 |
**At London
About two-thirds of entries are on the Bills this week with nearly 20 percent on the Buccaneers and 15 percent on the Jaguars. Thus, there is no pot-odds play. Pick the team you want.
Perhaps many already used the Bills, which is why they don't have more backers — Vegas made them the biggest favorite this week by a decent margin.
Teams are listed below in order of preference, though the 49ers, Jaguars and Buccaneers are pretty much even.
MY PICKS
Buffalo Bills
The Bills are easily the biggest favorite this week at home against a Pittsburgh team that just lost to the Jets and is starting a rookie quarterback who threw three picks in his debut last week. If you haven't used the Bills yet, this is the week.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings got a lucky bounce last week (a lucky two bounces!), and this week they're fortunate to get the Bears at home. Better to be lucky than good. Maybe that's not fair to a team that's 3-1, but the Vikings could easily be 1-3. The Bears, however, are a different level of consternation. They are the fifth team since 1980, and first since the 2005 Bills, to average less than 100 passing yards per game (97.5) in their first four games. How has this team won two games?
San Francisco 49ers
The Panthers had 11 possessions last week against the Cardinals and nine ended thusly: four punts, three turnovers, two turnover on downs. They're only offensive touchdown came with less than five minutes to play. And that was against a Cardinals defense that entered the week ranked 31st in points allowed and 30th in passing yards allowed. Assuming the offense holds up its end, San Francisco should work over the Panthers good.
Jacksonville Jaguars
J-Ville is 2-2 after playing three of its first four games on the road. It returns home this week to face the winless Texans. The Jaguars jumped out to a 14-0 lead last week against the Eagles before Trevor Lawrence started coughing up the ball. Lawrence won't have five turnovers this week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs' defense got exposed last week against the Chiefs, but, perhaps more important, the offense finally came alive. Tampa Bay seems better than its 2-2 record, with a last-second loss to Green Bay without Mike Evans and a loss to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Neither is shameful. Atlanta, which doesn't have a lot of playmakers to begin with, is now without Cordarrelle Patterson.
Green Bay Packers
This game is at London, which adds a variable, and the Packers haven't necessarily looked great this season. But Daniel Jones has an ankle injury, and even if he plays he likely won't be as mobile as usual. That's an important part of the Giants' offense. And backup Tyrod Taylor is still bouncing back from a concussion.
Notable Omission:
Kansas City Chiefs
Rivalry game, with the Chiefs perhaps set up for a letdown after a big win on the road against Tom Brady and the Bucs last week. The Raiders are feeling good after spanking the Broncos last week but are still a desperate team at 1-3. I'm not confident enough on this one to stake my Survivor bid on it.
