This article is part of our Survivor series.
It feels like we've fought our way deep into the season ... but we're barely a month in. Such has been the road of Survivor this season.
The Bills, Buccaneers, 49ers and Vikings came through last week, but the Packers (Daniel Jones' ankle injury turned out to be not so bad) and Jaguars (nice job, two-picks Trevor) turned in clunkers.
Four top teams winning, though, saved most from the executioner's table. The Packers/Jaguars took out 18 of the 19 losers in my pool. Of the original 410 entries, 65 remain (16 percent).
Byes begin this week, and there appear to be few mismatches. On to Week 6.
As usual, you are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind this Survivor strategy.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing. Home teams in CAPS.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAMS | Panthers | 42.40% | 437.5 | 81.40% | 7.89 |
| Buccaneers | STEELERS | 26.50% | 355 | 78.02% | 5.82 |
| PACKERS | Jets | 8.80% | 296.5 | 74.78% | 2.22 |
| 49ers | FALCONS | 8.50% | 225 | 69.23% | 2.62 |
| CHARGERS | Broncos | 6.70% | 225 | 69.23% | 2.06 |
| Ravens | GIANTS | 1.80% | 201 | 66.78% | 0.60 |
| Vikings | DOLPHINS | 0.90% | 142 | 58.68% | 0.37 |
| EAGLES | Cowboys | 0.90% | 206 | 67.32% | 0.29 |
| BEARS | Commanders | 0.70% | 110 | 52.38% | 0.33 |
| COLTS | Jaguars | 0.40% | 121.5 | 54.85% | 0.18 |
| BROWNS | Patriots | 0.40% | 137 | 57.81% | 0.17 |
| Cardinals | SEAHAWKS | 0.40% | 137 |
It feels like we've fought our way deep into the season ... but we're barely a month in. Such has been the road of Survivor this season.
The Bills, Buccaneers, 49ers and Vikings came through last week, but the Packers (Daniel Jones' ankle injury turned out to be not so bad) and Jaguars (nice job, two-picks Trevor) turned in clunkers.
Four top teams winning, though, saved most from the executioner's table. The Packers/Jaguars took out 18 of the 19 losers in my pool. Of the original 410 entries, 65 remain (16 percent).
Byes begin this week, and there appear to be few mismatches. On to Week 6.
As usual, you are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind this Survivor strategy.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing. Home teams in CAPS.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAMS | Panthers | 42.40% | 437.5 | 81.40% | 7.89 |
| Buccaneers | STEELERS | 26.50% | 355 | 78.02% | 5.82 |
| PACKERS | Jets | 8.80% | 296.5 | 74.78% | 2.22 |
| 49ers | FALCONS | 8.50% | 225 | 69.23% | 2.62 |
| CHARGERS | Broncos | 6.70% | 225 | 69.23% | 2.06 |
| Ravens | GIANTS | 1.80% | 201 | 66.78% | 0.60 |
| Vikings | DOLPHINS | 0.90% | 142 | 58.68% | 0.37 |
| EAGLES | Cowboys | 0.90% | 206 | 67.32% | 0.29 |
| BEARS | Commanders | 0.70% | 110 | 52.38% | 0.33 |
| COLTS | Jaguars | 0.40% | 121.5 | 54.85% | 0.18 |
| BROWNS | Patriots | 0.40% | 137 | 57.81% | 0.17 |
| Cardinals | SEAHAWKS | 0.40% | 137 | 57.81% | 0.17 |
| Bengals | SAINTS | 0.30% | 120 | 54.55% | 0.14 |
| Bills | CHIEFS | 0.30% | 131.5 | 56.80% | 0.13 |
This is a tough week. The Lions, Titans, Raiders and Texans have byes. The most-picked teams above — Rams, Buccaneers, Packers, 49ers — look legit, but they've also probably been picked by a lot already. Digging below those teams leaves ... not a whole lot. The matchups seem pretty even.
If you still have one of those four teams left, go that way. If not, we'll do out best to identify winners. A pot-odds play isn't in the cards this week.
Teams are listed in order of preference. We'll also note most-picked teams from previous weeks, as they probably won't be available to many. Feel free to debate the merits of each pick in the comments below.
My Picks
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are coming off a big loss and desperately need a win. Fortunately for them, coming to town are the Panthers, who fired their coach this week and could have P.J. Walker at quarterback with Baker Mayfield hurt. Sometimes teams get a dead-cat bounce after firing their coach. That doesn't seem likely this time. (The Rams were the most-picked team Week 2).
Green Bay Packers
The Jets are a soft 3-2. They drubbed the Dolphins last week after backup QB Teddy Bridgewater was knocked out of the game on Miami's first play. So, the Jets have beaten a backup QB (Jacoby Brissett), a QB who was so bad he lost his job to a rookie (Mitch Trubisky) and now a third-stringer (Skylar Thompson). The Packers have some frustrations to take out on the Jets after losing in London last week. (The Packers were the most-picked team Week 4.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay held off the Falcons last week, but it didn't necessarily look great. The offense is still finding its way. The Steelers have bigger problems, though. Way bigger. The only thing going for the Steelers this week is it's a home game. But that's not much — they're 0-2 at home this year. The Bucs likely will torment rookie Kenny Pickett all day.
San Francisco 49ers
The Falcons want to run (largely because throwing is so difficult for them). The 49ers own the league's best run defense. San Francisco's defense should be way too much for the Falcons.
Philadelphia Eagles
Both teams have good defenses, but the Eagles have a much better offense. The best thing the Dallas offense does is not turn the ball over. That could change this week. The Cowboys are riding high after beating the Rams in L.A.; expect them to deflate in Philly.
Baltimore Ravens
The Giants are 4-1 but have beaten the Titans, Panthers, Bears and Packers (at London). Not exactly the stiffest competition. The Giants' path to victory rides on the legs of Saquon Barkley. The Ravens have a top-10 rush defense and probably can do enough to not let Barkley dominate, forcing Daniel Jones to beat them. The Giants' WR vs. the Ravens' CBs is a matchup squarely in Baltimore's favor. Plus, Rashod Bateman should be back for Lamar Jackson and the offense. (The Ravens were the most-picked team Week 1.)
Cincinnati Bengals
The Saints aren't that good. Last week, it was all Taysom Hill vs. the league's worst defense (by a mile). Jameis Winston is still out, and defensively they rank 25th in points allowed. The Bengals had a fluky Week 1 loss and then respectable losses to the Cowboys and Ravens, both on the road. At 2-3, this is a must win for the Bengals.
Notable Omission:
Los Angeles Chargers
I don't really trust the Chargers and the AFC West seems pretty even. Most undoubtedly will look at Russell Wilson, who has a bum shoulder and is playing the worst football of his career, and the Broncos' offense (and Nathaniel Hackett!) and easily pick against them — on the road to boot. It makes sense. But I don't have enough confidence in that outcome to risk a Survivor pick in the Monday night game.
