This article is part of our Survivor series.
To state the obvious, last week did not go well — unless you avoided the two most popular picks, the Patriots and Buccaneers, in which case you are ecstatic, as you are probably among a select few remaining in your pool. Congrats. Let's hope the rest of you can buy back into your pool. Or are in a double-elimination pool. Or just like reading this article each week for fun.
In my pool, 20 of the 36 remaining survivors were eliminated on the Patriots and Buccaneers (10 each). Of the original 410 entries, only 15 remain. This thing could be wrapped up this week, and we're not even to midseason.
On to Week 8.
As usual, you are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind this Survivor strategy.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing. Home teams in CAPS.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COWBOYS | Bears | 32.5% | 355 | 78.02% | 7.14 |
| EAGLES | Steelers | 30.6% | 437.5 | 81.40% | 5.69 |
| BILLS | Packers | 16.6% | 437.5 | 81.40% | 3.09 |
| FALCONS | Panthers | 5.8% | 192.5 | 65.81% | 1.98 |
| Dolphins | LIONS | 3.2% | 175 | 63.64% | 1.16 |
| Bengals | BROWNS | 2.4% | 175 | 63.64% | 0.87 |
| Titans | TEXANS | 2.3% | 120 | 54.55% | 1.05 |
| VIKINGS | Cardinals | 1.7% | 182.5 | 64.60% | 0.60 |
| JAGUARS | Broncos | 0.8% | 130 | 56.52% | 0.35 |
| COLTS | Commanders | 0.8% | 147.5 | 59.60% | 0.32 |
| SEAHAWKS | Giants | 0.6% | 147.5 | 59.60% |
To state the obvious, last week did not go well — unless you avoided the two most popular picks, the Patriots and Buccaneers, in which case you are ecstatic, as you are probably among a select few remaining in your pool. Congrats. Let's hope the rest of you can buy back into your pool. Or are in a double-elimination pool. Or just like reading this article each week for fun.
In my pool, 20 of the 36 remaining survivors were eliminated on the Patriots and Buccaneers (10 each). Of the original 410 entries, only 15 remain. This thing could be wrapped up this week, and we're not even to midseason.
On to Week 8.
As usual, you are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind this Survivor strategy.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing. Home teams in CAPS.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COWBOYS | Bears | 32.5% | 355 | 78.02% | 7.14 |
| EAGLES | Steelers | 30.6% | 437.5 | 81.40% | 5.69 |
| BILLS | Packers | 16.6% | 437.5 | 81.40% | 3.09 |
| FALCONS | Panthers | 5.8% | 192.5 | 65.81% | 1.98 |
| Dolphins | LIONS | 3.2% | 175 | 63.64% | 1.16 |
| Bengals | BROWNS | 2.4% | 175 | 63.64% | 0.87 |
| Titans | TEXANS | 2.3% | 120 | 54.55% | 1.05 |
| VIKINGS | Cardinals | 1.7% | 182.5 | 64.60% | 0.60 |
| JAGUARS | Broncos | 0.8% | 130 | 56.52% | 0.35 |
| COLTS | Commanders | 0.8% | 147.5 | 59.60% | 0.32 |
| SEAHAWKS | Giants | 0.6% | 147.5 | 59.60% | 0.24 |
| Ravens | BUCCANEERS | 0.5% | 112.5 | 52.94% | 0.24 |
| BUCCANEERS | Ravens | 0.4% | 112.5 | 52.94% | 0.19 |
| JETS | Patriots | 0.3% | 120 | 54.55% | 0.14 |
| Patriots | JETS | 0.3% | 120 | 54.55% | 0.14 |
| Raiders | SAINTS | 0.3% | 120 | 54.55% | 0.14 |
| 49ers | RAMS | 0.2% | 112.5 | 52.94% | 0.09 |
Week 8 has a clear top 3 — Eagles (81.4 percent), Bills (81.4) and Cowboys (78.0). No other team even reaches 66 percent Vegas odds. Only the Bills (Week 5) have been a top pick according to Officefootballpools.com. So, hopefully the Eagles and Cowboys are available.
Survivors are roughly split on those two, even though the Eagles have slightly better odds. If none of these teams is available, feel to drop a note in the comments about who you're considering and we can hash it out.
With two evenly picked teams at the top, there is no pot-odds play this week (which should be obvious if you've been following along all year).
My Picks
Dallas Cowboys
This game sets up well for the Cowboys. The Bears are coming off a huge road win Monday night (that sunk many a Survivor pick) but are not a good team. Prior to last week's 33 points, they averaged 15.5 points per game. Do you really think they've turned a corner? Unlike last week's opponent, New England, the Cowboys' defense is for real. They've held six of seven opponents to less than 20 points and lead the league in QB pressure percentage (30.1) and sacks (29). And who leads the league in sacks taken? Justin Fields (27). After a warm-up game last week in his return from injury, Dak Prescott should be in fine form.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Steelers have been better on defense the last two weeks (combined 34 points allowed), but offensively, Kenny Pickett is still throwing interceptions (three again last week) and the team has not scored more than 20 points since Week 1 — and that took overtime to get to 23. Pittsburgh has scored fewer points this season than all but the Broncos, including eight teams who have played just six games thanks to byes. One of the those teams is the Eagles, who are coming off a bye and allow just 17.5 points per game (4th). It's hard to see how the Steelers keep up against the home-team Eagles, who, by the way, rank second in the league with nine interceptions.
Buffalo Bills
Like the Eagles, the Bills are coming off a bye. Like the Eagles, the Bills face an opponent that has major issues. The Packers have lost three consecutive games, averaging 17.6 points vs. the Giants (at London), vs. the Jets and at Washington. Not exactly a who's who of opponents. The Packers are as desperate as it gets, and desperate teams can be dangerous, but the Bills could overwhelm them on all sides. The low pick percentage (16.6 percent) is likely due to survivors having already used the Bills.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals seem to be hitting their stride. They've scored 30-plus points each of the last two weeks and at least 27 points in four of their last five games. The Browns have two wins — vs. the Panthers and Steelers. Maybe they get up for a rivalry game at home and play out of their minds, but that's not much to go on. They're just not that good.
Atlanta Falcons
The Panthers somehow dismantled the Buccaneers last week. Here's betting they fall back to earth this week. Give Steve Wilks credit for rallying the troops after the Christian McCaffrey trade, but the Panthers have holes. Atlanta is up-and-down but usually in games. The Falcons are at home against an NFC South rival and likely won't fall behind by three touchdowns early like they did last week.
Notable Omission:
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins did enough last week to get by the Steelers in Tua Tagovailoa's return, but they didn't look great. The Lions, of course, looked much worse last week (and the week before) in a blowout loss. Nevertheless, I could see the Lions rallying at home and scraping out a win. It just has that feel. If all of the above teams are off the table, and you're digging this far for a Survivor pick, I'd lean toward the Vikings, Colts and Jaguars rather than the Dolphins.
