This article is part of our Survivor series.
Favorites prospered last week, which was good for Survivor — and a rarity for this season. The only notable loss among the most popular picks was the Bengals (and they were only the sixth-most picked team). In my pool, all 15 of the remaining entrants (of an original 410) survived.
On to Week 9 .
As usual, you are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind this Survivor strategy.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing. Home teams in CAPS.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHIEFS | Titans | 30.3% | 537.5 | 84.31% | 4.75 |
| Eagles | TEXANS | 21.4% | 647 | 86.61% | 2.86 |
| BENGALS | Panthers | 16.0% | 296.5 | 74.78% | 4.04 |
| Bills | JETS | 12.2% | 537.5 | 84.31% | 1.91 |
| PATRIOTS | Colts | 8.7% | 201 | 66.78% | 2.89 |
| Dolphins | BEARS | 4.8% | 201 | 66.78% | 1.59 |
| Vikings | COMMANDERS | 2.4% | 160 | 61.54% | 0.92 |
| Chargers | FALCONS | 0.9% | 153.5 | 60.55% | 0.36 |
| Packers | LIONS | 0.9% | 160 | 61.54% | 0.35 |
| Ravens | SAINTS | 0.7% | 142 | 58.68% | 0.29 |
| CARDINALS | Seahawks | 0.4% | 121 | 54.75% | 0.18 |
| Raiders | JAGUARS | 0.3% | 115 | 53.49% | 0.14 |
| BUCCANEERS | Rams | 0.3% | 148 | 59.68% | 0.12 |
This is a tough week because six teams have a bye and the three biggest favorites likely are not available to many.
The Eagles (86.6 percent), Chiefs (84.4) and Bills (84.4) have the highest Vegas odds we've seen this season, aside from the Bills' Week 5
Favorites prospered last week, which was good for Survivor — and a rarity for this season. The only notable loss among the most popular picks was the Bengals (and they were only the sixth-most picked team). In my pool, all 15 of the remaining entrants (of an original 410) survived.
On to Week 9 .
As usual, you are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind this Survivor strategy.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing. Home teams in CAPS.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHIEFS | Titans | 30.3% | 537.5 | 84.31% | 4.75 |
| Eagles | TEXANS | 21.4% | 647 | 86.61% | 2.86 |
| BENGALS | Panthers | 16.0% | 296.5 | 74.78% | 4.04 |
| Bills | JETS | 12.2% | 537.5 | 84.31% | 1.91 |
| PATRIOTS | Colts | 8.7% | 201 | 66.78% | 2.89 |
| Dolphins | BEARS | 4.8% | 201 | 66.78% | 1.59 |
| Vikings | COMMANDERS | 2.4% | 160 | 61.54% | 0.92 |
| Chargers | FALCONS | 0.9% | 153.5 | 60.55% | 0.36 |
| Packers | LIONS | 0.9% | 160 | 61.54% | 0.35 |
| Ravens | SAINTS | 0.7% | 142 | 58.68% | 0.29 |
| CARDINALS | Seahawks | 0.4% | 121 | 54.75% | 0.18 |
| Raiders | JAGUARS | 0.3% | 115 | 53.49% | 0.14 |
| BUCCANEERS | Rams | 0.3% | 148 | 59.68% | 0.12 |
This is a tough week because six teams have a bye and the three biggest favorites likely are not available to many.
The Eagles (86.6 percent), Chiefs (84.4) and Bills (84.4) have the highest Vegas odds we've seen this season, aside from the Bills' Week 5 matchup against the Steelers (88.3). But those who have survived this year have probably already used them. The next highest is the Bengals, whom 16 percent of the entrants picked (third most).
With the picks so evenly distributed, there is no pot-odds play this week. (There has been a dearth of pot-odds plays this season, which perhaps warrants a wider discussion. For a future week.)
MY PICKS
Philadelphia Eagles
The only question is whether the Eagles are still available. If so, they are the easy pick against the hapless Texans, even though they're on the road. Considering barely a fifth of survivors are on the Eagles, it seems they are not available to most. Philadelphia has not been the most popular pick any week this year, though it's been the second-most popular twice (including last week).
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is at home, coming off a bye and (likely) playing a Malik Willis-led Titans. The Chiefs have a pretty good run defense to start with (4.15 yards allowed per rush, 7th; 16 rushes allowed of 10-plus yards, 5th fewest) and will probably will sell out to slow Derrick Henry with little to fear from a Tennessee passing offense that barely even tries to throw deep (13 attempts of 20-plus yards, 31st). The Chiefs were the second-most popular pick Week 3 ... and lost, to the Colts. They shouldn't choke this time, even if Ryan Tannehill return — Andy Reid is 20-3 following a bye, which seems good.
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo looks more formidable by the week. The Jets are 5-3 but don't really have a great win (that victory at Lambeau looks less impressive three weeks later). The Bills were the most popular pick Week 5, which partially explains why only 12 percent are on them this week. Maybe there also is some hesitation because it's an intra-division road game. I'd take the Jets and the points (+13), but Buffalo is clearly the better team straight-up.
New England Patriots
Bill Belichick at home against a quarterback making his second career start seems like a pretty good bet. This is another spot where it's likely the defense sells out to stop the run, in this case a dinged-up Jonathan Taylor, and forces Sam Ehlinger to beat it through the air.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins were pushed by the Lions last week in Detroit, but showed some fortitude in the fourth quarter by scoring 14 unanswered points in a comeback win. Chase Claypool adds a weapon to the Bears' offense, but he probably won't play much this week. The Bears also traded their best defensive player, linebacker Roquan Smith, (and Robert Quinn), leaving a sizable hole.
Cincinnati Bengals
Apparently, Matt Rhule was the problem in Carolina. Since he's been gone, the Panthers beat the Buccaneers and nearly had a miraculous win last week at the Falcons, only to fall in overtime. But the Panthers still have issues — in three starts, PJ Walker has completed barely 60 percent of his throws — and this game doesn't come in the weak NFC South. It would be surprising if the Bengals don't bounce back after getting embarrassed on Monday night football. Another week of practice without Ja'Marr Chase hopefully helps the offense find answers.
Notable Omission:
Arizona Cardinals
This might not qualify as "notable," but the Cardinals aren't good and the Seahawks' defense has turned its season around after a terrible start. Seattle held Arizona to nine points in Week 6. This one is in Glendale, but it's a short trip (relatively speaking) for the Seahawks and their fans. Seattle is (surprisingly) fourth in the league in scoring (26.3 points per game) and Kenneth Walker, who averaged 5.76 yards per carry in his last four games, faces a Cardinals defense that just gave up 173 rushing yards at 5.97 yards per carry to the Vikings.
If you are in Maryland or Ohio, keep in mind that legal sportsbooks are set to launch in your state soon. Stay up to date with the latest BetMGM Maryland bonus code, and prepare for Ohio with the BetMGM Ohio bonus code.
