Survivor: Week 18 Strategy & Picks

Well, here we are. Week 18. Writing this column each week this season turned out to be more fun than I expected, even after I was eliminated Week 3 (still don't know how the Chiefs lost to the Colts). Thanks for reading, glad to have you aboard. See you back next year.

If you're still reading, it means you're still surviving. Congratulations, you've earned it. Hopefully, we helped a little a long the way, but the credit belongs to you. Now finish the job this week, champ. (Feel free to sound off in the comments and let us know who you picked this week so we can root for you.)

Last week, all of the top picks won, except for the Eagles (one of our notable omissions). In my pool, all three of the remaining entrants (or an original 410) survived — on the Giants, Lions and Chargers.

On to Week 18.

Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing. Home teams in CAPS.

As mentioned the last few weeks, the numbers above are largely irrelevant at this point. They should still give an idea of where pickers are looking, but individual pools could differ considerably. 

Let's run through the same exercise we did last week with three remaining Survivors in my pool. 

Of the options below, Team A has the Seahawks and Jaguars remaining, as does Team B. Team C has the 49ers, Seahawks and Jaguars. 

If I'm Teams A or B, I'd take the Seahawks at home with a playoff berth on the line (against a Rams team that has already booked offseason golfing trips) and hope the other team takes the Jaguars. 

If I'm Team C, I'd go 49ers, who have a lot to play for (see below) against a bad Cardinals team that will be golfing with the Rams soon. What's more, this would give me a competitive advantage over Teams A and B — i.e., If both competitors lose, I win. Whereas, if I were to pick the same team as A/B, I can only tie.

Picks below are in order of most likely to win. If none of the teams below are available, we can discuss options in the comments. And for the last time, good luck.

My Picks

San Francisco 49ers

Losers of their last six, the Cardinals are done. The 49ers will earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs with a win and an Eagles loss. The teams both play in the late window Sunday, giving the 49ers every reason to keep their starters in the game throughout. What's more, the 49ers would also need to win to keep the No. 2 seed, should the Vikings win at Chicago earlier in the day. That is actually a bigger deal that we made it out to be last week, if you recall. The two seed gets the Seahawks, Lions or Packers in the wild-card round. The third seed gets the Giants.

Kansas City Chiefs

In the first Week 18 game Saturday, the Chiefs will play for the AFC's No. 1 seed, so they won't rest starters. The game is at Las Vegas and Raiders QB Jarrett Stidham passed for 365 yards and three touchdowns against the 49ers last week, which add perhaps an element of uncertainty. But Kansas City just has too much to play for to come out flat. 

Dallas Cowboys

The Commanders are out of playoff contention and are expected to audition rookie QB Sam Howell at some point during Sunday's game. The Cowboys will claim the NFC East with a win and an Eagles loss. If that happens and the 49ers lose, they would vault into the No. 1 seed. The Cowboys, Eagles and 49ers play at the same time Sunday, so the Cowboys have every reason to keep the pressure on.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are at home in a must-win situation for the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The Giants have the sixth seed locked up and have nothing on the line. Philly should come out strong in Jalen Hurts' return. 

Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks need a win and a Packers loss to make the playoffs. The Rams have been ready for the season to end for about six weeks now. Green Bay plays in the Sunday night game, which gives the Seahawks every reason to not let up. The Rams went back to their putrid ways last week after their 51-point outburst against the Broncos in Week 16. The Seahawks snapped a three-game losing streak (against the Panthers, 49ers and Chiefs) with a win last week against the Jets.

Minnesota Vikings

A Minnesota win and a San Francisco loss would make the Vikings the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoffs. The two seed plays the seven seed in the wild-card round — Seattle, Detroit or Green Bay. The No. 3 seed plays the Giants, who are locked into the sixth seed. Who do you think the Vikings would rather play? Moreover, the Vikings play early while the 49ers play late Sunday, meaning Minnesota has to keep its foot on the gas.  Justin Fields is out for Chicago, and the Bears can still reach the No. 1 pick in next year's draft with a loss and a Texans win.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jags play the Titans for the AFC South crown on Saturday. The Titans have little left at this point, other than Derrick Henry. The Jaguars are at home and are the better team, but this is no gimme. 

Miami Dolphins

Riding the Dolphins in Week 18 Survivor is probably for only the truly desperate, but Miami is seemingly in a pretty good spot to claim a playoff berth. A win against the Jets, who have dropped seven of their last nine, and a loss by the Patriots, who play at Buffalo, and they're in. What's more, the Jets said Mike White will start again, despite broken ribs and four interceptions and no touchdowns in his last three games. So far, so good, but the tricky part is Tua Tagovailoa is not expected play. And the Dolphins, who like the Jets have lost five in a row, aren't playing well.

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers play the hopeless Broncos, seeking the AFC's fifth seed. The No. 5 seed gets a wild-card playoff matchup with the AFC South champ, while the sixth seed gets the Bengals or Bills in the playoff opener. Much is on the line. However, if the Ravens lose in the early window Sunday against the Bengals, then the Chargers will get the fifth seed win or lose. In that scenario, Justin Herbert, and possibly other starters, figure to not play the whole game. Can the Broncos beat a half-hearted Chargers squad? Probably not, but they did give the Chiefs a run last week in Kansas City, so, unfortunately, it's probably best to take the Chargers only if all of the above options are gone.

Notable Omission:

Green Bay Packers

The Packers are win-and-in, but the Lions would like nothing more than to knock Green Bay out of the playoffs. Plus, if the Seahawks lose, then the Lions are win-and-in too. Ultimately, though, the Packers just aren't good enough to make them a Week 18 Survivor pick. 

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