Target Breakdown: WR & TE Usage Report + Week 4 Waivers Preview

Box Score Breakdown

Backfield Breakdown

Target Breakdown ⬇️   

Weekly Injury Report 🚑

New Injuries

• WRs DeVonta Smith (concussion / day-to-day) & Britain Covey (shoulder)
• WR Amari Cooper (undisclosed)
• WR Tank Dell (wrist,ribs / day-to-day)
• WR Adam Thielen (hamstring / IR)
• WR Van Jefferson (eye)

• Sam LaPorta (ankle / day-to-day)
• Trey McBride (concussion / day-to-day)

Browns WR Amari Cooper worked hard for his 7-86-2 receiving line, making a few highly difficult catches in traffic on an otherwise dismal afternoon for Cleveland's offense. He took a hard fall trying to make one of those hero grabs late in the fourth quarter, and he missed the final couple snaps of the game. Coach Kevin Stefanski didn't provide an update after the game, but it's at least good news that Stefanski didn't mention Cooper on the list of players scheduled for MRIs.

Eagles WR DeVonta Smith had a more straightforward situation, entering concussion protocol in the second half after taking a huge hit on his seventh catch of the day. With WR A.J. Brown (hamstring) missing Week 3 and not looking too good for Week 4, the Eagles may be left with Jahan Dotson, Parris Campbell and Johnny Wilson as their top WRs this Sunday at Tampa Bay.

The other fantasy-relevant pass catchers bitten by the injury bug this past weekend were tight ends Sam LaPorta and Trey McBride, both of whom are in danger of missing a game or two but aren't expected to require long-term absences.

Missed Week 3

• WR Jordan Addison (ankle / day-to-day)
• WR Keenan Allen (heel / day-to-day) 
• WR Joshua Palmer (calf / day-to-day)
• WR Deebo Samuel (calf / week-to-week)
• WR A.J. Brown (hamstring / week-to-week) 
• WR Cooper Kupp (ankle / out Week 4 and beyond)
• WR Marquise Brown (IR - shoulder / likely out for season)
• WR Puka Nacua (IR - knee / likely out until November)
• WR Odell Beckham (PUP - unspecified / eligible Week 5)
• WR Kendrick Bourne (PUP - knee / eligible Week 5)
• WR Ricky Pearsall (NFI - chest / eligible Week 5)
• WR DJ Chark (IR - hip / eligible Week 5)

• TE David Njoku (ankle / week-to-week)
• TE Evan Engram (hamstring / week-to-week)
• TE George Kittle (hamstring / week-to-week)
• TE Taysom Hill (chest / day-to-day)
• TE Davis Allen (back / week-to-week)
• TE Tanner Hudson (knee / week-to-week)
• TE Tyler Higbee (PUP - ACL)
• TE T.J. Hockenson (PUP - ACL)
• TEs Ian Thomas (IR - calf) & Tommy Tremble (hamstring)

Stock Report 📊

I'm focusing on role/usage more so than results/performance here, although there are certainly cases where the two are related or poor per-target efficiency can't just be written off as a small-sample or matchup problem. Unless otherwise specified, the target, route and air-yard shares shown next to each player are from the first three games combined. I'll use 'W3' to denote stats from just the last game.

• AYS = Air-Yard Share (percent of team's air yards)
• TS = Target Share

Trending Up 📈

Wide Receivers 📈

Malik Nabers - 95% routes, 38% TS, 58% AYS, 35% TPRR, etc.

Marvin Harrison - 93% routes, 26% TS, 46% AYS, 26% TPRR  /  W3: 183 AY, 11 tgt (5-64-1)

Jauan Jennings - 22% TS, 30% AYS, 28% TPRR  /  W3: 158 AY, 12 tgts (11-175-3) 

Diontae Johnson - 28% TS, 37% AYS, 30% TPRR  /  W3: 14 tgts (8-122-1)  /  Thielen out

Rome Odunze - 18% TS, 34% AYS  /  W3: league-high 235 air yards, 11 tgts (6-112-1)

Chris Godwin - 31% TS, 42% AYS, 30% TPRR  /  W3: 9 tgts (6-53-1)

Terry McLaurin -  24 TS, 56% AYS  /  W3: 146 AY, 6 tgts (4-100-1)

Darnell Mooney - 98% routes, 23% TS, 31% AYS  /  W3: 8 tgts (8-66-0)

Wan'Dale Robinson - 75% routes, 25% TS, 29% TPRR  /  W3: 8 tgts (7-61-0)

Xavier Legette - W3: 51% routes, 3 tgts (2-42-0)  /  Thielen out, Bryce benched

DeMario Douglas - 17% TS / W3: 9 tgts (7-69-0)

Lil'Jordan Humphrey - W3: 73% snaps, 72% routes, 8 tgts (6-37-0)

Tutu Atwell - 24% TPRR  /  W3: 74% snaps, 83% routes, 5 tgts (4-93-0)

JuJu Smith-Schuster - W3: 54% snaps, 54% routes, 3 tgts (2-17-1)

Tight Ends 📈

Cole Kmet - W3: 71% snaps, 11 tgts (10-97-1)

Dallas Goedert - 88% snaps, 84% routes, 21% TS  /  W3: 11 tgts (10-170-0)

Dalton Schultz - W3: 95% snaps, 80% routes, 5 tgts (2-11-0)  /  Brevin Jordan ACL tear

Brock Wright - W3: 48% routes, 5 tgts (4-34-0)  /  LaPorta injury

Elijah Higgins - McBride injury

Tommy Tremble - W3: 86% snaps, 64% routes, 3 tgts (3-29-0)

Jordan Akins - W3: 70% snaps, 76% routes, 7 tgts (4-29-0)

Trending Down 📉

Wide Receivers 📉

Mike Evans - 19% TS, 19% TPRR

Tank Dell - 16% TS, 17% TPRR

Calvin Ridley - 18% TS, 18% TPRR / W3: 72% snaps, 69% routes, 3 tgts (1-9-0)

Christian Watson - 64% routes, 11% TS, 15% TPRR

Demarcus Robinson - 15% TS, 15% TPRR

Mike Williams - W3: 46% snaps, 49% routes, 4 tgts

Adonai Mitchell - W3: 11% snaps, 1 tgt

Josh Reynolds - W3: 52% snaps, 58% routes, 2 tgts

Tight Ends 📉

Mark Andrews - W3: 33% snaps, 27% routes

Brock Bowers - W3: 49% routes, 4 tgts (3-41-0)

Travis Kelce - 14% TS, 19% AYS, 15 TPRR

Tucker Kraft - W3: 66% snaps, 50% routes, 3 tgts (2-24-0)

Hunter Henry - W3: 65% snaps, 64% routes, 3 tgts

Ja'Tavion Sanders - W3: 21% routes, 1 tgt

The lack of routes for Bowers mostly looks like a one-week blip, partially due to the Raiders using more three-wide formations (and less multi-TE stuff) after they fell behind early. Negative game script worked well for Bowers the previous two weeks, however, and fantasy managers were probably frustrated to see Michael Mayer get a lot of the snaps in comeback mode when the Raiders were barely running the ball.

Andrews is the real concern here, showing us a snap/route floor that was previously unseen, on top of his previous struggles with target share/rate. I wouldn't want him in a lineup Week 4, even if he'll inevitably have a few good games this season. It might be just a few, and they might not be as good as his blow-up weeks in past years. Physical decline is probably at least part of the problem here; I don't think it's strictly a matter of snap/target competition from Isaiah Likely and general touch competition from Zay Flowers and Derrick Henry.

Kelce worries me less, although he's also not what he used to be. He's at least still running a ton of routes every week, which gives him both a better ceiling and higher floor than Andrews. And, for what it's worth, Patrick Mahomes seems optimistic about Kelce having some big days eventually.

Waivers Look-Ahead ±

*Only includes players rostered in half of less of Yahoo Leagues

Wide Receivers

Potential Starters

1. Jauan Jennings - 31%
2. Romeo Doubs - 43%
3. Darnell Mooney - 26%
4. Wan'Dale Robinson - 20%
5. Gabe Davis - 33%
6. Jakobi Meyers - 36%
7. Tutu Atwell - 2% 
8. Rashod Bateman - 10%
9. Jalen Nailor - 11% 
10. DeMario Douglas - 7%
11. Andrei Iosivas - 9%
12. Michael Wilson - 9% 
13. Ray-Ray McCloud - 5%
14. Greg Dortch - 10%
15. Jalen Tolbert - 4%

Jennings was picked up in a lot of leagues last week after Deebo Samuel's injury. The instant success means Jennings should be picked up everywhere else this week and even started in many of those leagues, but I'd still rather have Brandon Aiyuk in a lineup, betting on the longer-term track record and target-earning history.

Mooney and Robinson have been surprisingly consistent in terms of both volume and production, but neither offers any upside beyond WR3/4 range. Doubs, meanwhile, still has some chance to be Jordan Love's No. 1 receiver, or at least on even footing with Jayden Reed (the lack of production with Malik Willis directing a super-run-heavy offense doesn't mean anything long term).

Bench Stashes

• Quentin Johnston - 45%
• Dontayvion Wicks - 14%
• Ja'Lynn Polk - 11%
• Xavier Legette - 10% 
• Tre Tucker - 0%
• Josh Downs - 25%
• Jordan Whittington - 7%
• Jalen McMillan - 5%

Potential Drops

• Hollywood Brown (shoulder - IR)
• Brandin Cooks
• Curtis Samuel
• Adonai Mitchell
• Josh Reynolds

Tight Ends

Recommended Adds

1. Cole Kmet -  40%
2. Tyler Conklin - 14%
3. Colby Parkinson - 30%
4. Zach Ertz - 23%
5. Taysom Hill (chest) - 41%
6. Cade Otton - 16%
7. Tucker Kraft - 3% 
8. Mike Gesicki - 40%
9. Noah Fant - 29%
10. Jordan Akins - 3%

Kmet's huge receiving line was accompanied by a major boost in playing time at the expense of Gerald Everett. That's probably the best game we'll see from Kmet all year, and possibly by a wide margin, but if Everett is truly marginalized in the offense it at least puts Kmet back in TE1 territory. The other options all get a lot of playing time but a low rate of targets (Conklin, Parkinson, Otton) or haven't quite been full-time guys the past few weeks (Gesicki, Kraft, Fant, Akins). Then there's Ertz, who has surprisingly strong route/target shares but in an offense that hasn't thrown many passes. And he's not going to make many big plays or add a lot of yards after the catch at this point in his career.

Potential Drops

• Isaiah Likely (shallow leagues)
• Luke Musgrave
• Juwan Johnson