This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.
Every year, fantasy managers get burned by premium picks. Players bust for a variety of reasons. Sometimes, the offense around them falls apart. Other times, coaching is an issue. Injuries are often an problem. Once in a while, a player will simply hit the decline phase of their career. Let's look at 2023's biggest fantasuy busts and consider their 2024 fantasy value.
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes
ADP: QB1
2023: QB8
The only thing that was somewhat decent about Mahomes' season was that he posted fewer than 16 fantasy points just once. He had a stable weekly floor. Great! That's not exactly the expectation for the No. 1 overall quarterback. Ceiling was the problem. After Week 3, Mahomes reached 25 fantasy points once. Between Travis Kelce having a mortal season and a number of receivers struggling with drops and poor route running, Mahomes was unable to overcome his situation. Unless the Chiefs get Mahomes improved weapons in the offseason, it's unlikely he'll be drafted as the top QB in 2024.
Justin Herbert
ADP: QB6
2023: QB19
Through Week 8, Herbert was doing well for fantasy, posting less than 23 fantasy points once. His downturn began in Week 9 against the Jets when he failed to throw a touchdown. Then, after a pair of solid outings, he failed to score 20 fantasy points in each of his last three games before missing the last four games of the season with a finger injury. If Keenan Allen comes back and if Mike Williams can return with a healthy preseason, Herbert could return to top-5 QB status.
Joe Burrow
ADP: QB5
2023: QB25
Burrow had already hurt his fantasy investors when his season ended Week 11. During preseason, the fourth-year QB suffered a calf injury, but his QB5 ADP showed the fantasy community perceived it as a non-issue. The first four games of the season Burrow failed to throw a TD pass three times. He failed to reach 20 fantasy points in five of his first six games. He finally caught fire Weeks 8-10. Then his season ended. Because it was only injuries that derailed Burrow's season, he remain an elite fantasy option in 2024, if healthy.
Running Back
Austin Ekeler
ADP: RB3
2023: RB24
Ekeler dominated Week 1 but suffered a high-ankle sprain. He missed three games and returned after the Chargers' Week 5 bye. In his first two games back, he was ineffective. He followed that with a three-week stretch when he averaged 22.6 points (PPR scoring). At that point, fantasy managers were hopeful they had their superstar runner back. They didn't. In the last eight games of the season, Ekeler reached 12 PPR points once. Part of the reason was the offense was dealing with injuries at quarterback and wide receiver. That allowed defenses to prioritize slowing Ekeler. Regardless, he had a rough season. Going into his age-29 season, his ADP likely will take a significant tumble in 2024. Ekeler is a high-risk, high-reward fantasy option.
Rhamondre Stevenson
ADP: RB11
2023: RB36
Stevenson's production was hurt by being part of an inept offense. Early in the season, the Patriots struggled to move the ball and score points. That allowed defenses to load the box to focus on the running back. Through Week 10, the third-year runner reached 20 PPR points once. In addition, he was held to 7.2 points or fewer in five games. After suffering an ankle injury Week 13, Stevenson was done for the season. His lack of ceiling along with frequent floor games was disappointing for those who spent a premium pick on him. If the Patriots improve their offensive weapons, Stevenson could easily return to a borderline RB1 in 2024.
Tony Pollard
ADP: RB9
2023: RB14
Pollard likely didn't cause many fantasy managers to lose their leagues. He actually didn't fall terribly behind expectations of his ADP. The problem was his owners expected an improvement on the 1,378 scrimmage yards and 12 touchdowns he had as a backup to Ezekiel Elliott in 2022. Instead, he had 42 yards and six touchdowns fewer as a starter despite an increase in touches from 248 to 319. His 2024 fantasy value may hinge on whether Dallas chooses to add another RB to compete with Pollard.
Wide Receiver
Garrett Wilson
ADP: WR11
2023: WR24
Garret Wilson is a superstar — full stop. The expectation was that with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, Wilson would blow away his rookie-year totals of 1,103 receiving yards and four touchdowns. Realistically, that dream ended after three snaps, when Rodgers injured his Achilles' tendon. Not only was the Jets' quarterback play horrible, but the offensive line did not provide consistent protection. The good news is that Wilson was targeted 168 times, resulting in 95 catches. The bad news is that he saw 6.2 yards per target, leading to 11 yards per reception. With the offense rarely scoring points, it's s a minor miracle he scored three touchdowns. Assuming Rodgers is healthy next year, Wilson could easily be a top-5 WR. It's possible he comes at a slight discount in drafts.
Tee Higgins
ADP: WR15
2023: WR51
Entering 2023, Higgins had missed four games the prior two seasons. However, he had a pair of games in 2022 in which he played a few snaps and recorded zeroes. It was reasonable to question his durability. Higgins missed four of the first 12 games of the season and also had to deal with Joe Burrow playing through a calf injury early in the season. In the first five games, Higgins had 4.1 or fewer PPR points four times. He finished with 10 fantasy points seven times. Between the missed games and poor performances, it was a lost season for Higgins. The veteran receiver is a free agent, and his landing spot will be critical in determining his fantasy value.
Jaylen Waddle
ADP: WR8
2023: WR33
It took Waddle until Week 15 to have his second game of the season with 20 PPR points. In addition, he topped 15 fantasy points just four times all year. Waddle had little upside, which was a problem with a player who was selected to be a WR1. One of the main issues was that he was unable to show the explosiveness he showed in 2022. In that season, Waddle caught 75 passes for 1,356 yards and eight TDs. This year, he had three fewer catches, but his yardage fell by 342 yards and his TDs were cut in half. As long as Tyreek Hill continues to dominate targets, Waddle will need to come at a lower cost in 2024 drafts to justify his potential for having another good, but not great, season.
Tight End
Darren Waller
ADP: TE5
2023: TE22
Betting on a 30-year old player coming off two seasons in which he missed a total of 14 games was always risky. However, Waller looked great in preseason. Also, with Brian Daboll as his coach, Waller's ceiling appeared to be ridiculous. Not only did the veteran miss another five games, but he was often limited with that hamstring injury in a number of games. Ultimately, Waller had one excellent fantasy performance, when he posted 98 yards and a TD in Week 7. Otherwise, he was held to single-digit PPR points in eight of 12 games. Unless Waller falls outside of the top-100 picks, it will be tough to invest in an aging player with a significant injury history.
Kyle Pitts
ADP: TE7
2023: TE13
As a rookie in 2021, Pitts had 1,012 yards with just one TD. In his second season, he played just 10 games. Unfortunately, he was used poorly in the offense and averaged just 35.6 yards per game in that second year. The fantasy community didn't go overboard with him in 2023. Drafting him as a top-5 tight end didn't seem to be a massive risk. Still, it was enough of an investment that showed the hope for an upside season. In the same number of games as his rookie season, he fell from 1,026 yards to 667. And scoring three times didn't help fantasy managers much. Finally, he reached double-digit PPR points just four times. It wasn't until the second half of the season that Pitts was getting targeted more than Jonnu Smith. Hopefully, a new coaching staff helps the talented tight end reach his potential in 2024.
Pat Freiermuth
ADP: TE10
2023: TE31
There's not very much to say about Freiermuth's season other than it couldn't have been much worse. As a rookie in 2021, he scored seven TDs. The following year, he posted 732 yards. Fantasy managers hoped this was the year that Freiermuth would put the yardage and TDs together. It also was encouraging when the Steelers' offense looked great in preseason. Ultimately, Pittsburgh proved how meaningless the preseason is. In 12 games played, the third-year tight end failed to reach eight PPR points 10 times. He'll likely be very cheap in 2024 fantasy drafts. If drafting multiple TEs, Freiermuth might be a reasonable lottery ticket.
