Thursday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Packers vs. 49ers

Thursday's night's game between the Packers and 49ers will look much different than what we were expecting just a few days ago, as both teams are dealing with multiple COVID-19 absences (either through positive tests or close contact quarantines) to very important offensive players. Additionally, San Francisco is missing a plethora of players due to various injuries, so it's no surprise that the Packers are 7.5-point road favorites in a game with a 48.5-point total on DraftKings Sportsbook.

QUARTERBACKS

Only three players in the NFL have thrown more touchdown passes this season than Aaron Rodgers ($11,400 DK, $15,000 FD), the second-most expensive player on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He's thrown multiple touchdown passes in all but one game this season, including five times with at least three, and now faces a 49ers defense that was torched last week by Russell Wilson, who threw for 261 yards and four scores. Then again, it was only the third time this season the Niners had allowed more than one passing touchdown, with Wilson joining Ryan Fitzpatrick (three) and Jared Goff (two) in that group. With the Packers heavy favorites and potentially missing all of their running backs, Rodgers figures to be extremely popular, both as a flex play and captain/MVP.

Jimmy Garoppolo is one of the important 49ers absences, as he is out with an ankle injury that could sideline him for the rest of the season. In his stead, Nick Mullens ($9,200 DK, $12,000 FD) will start after taking over for Garoppolo last week against the Seahawks, finishing with 238 yards and two touchdowns on 25 pass attempts. Mullens started two games earlier this season in place of Garoppolo, throwing for 343 yards and one touchdown in Week 3 against the Giants and 200 yards and one touchdown against the Eagles the following week, and it's tough to get excited about him against a Packers defense that has allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season. Green Bay has only allowed one 300-yard passer this season, though five of seven threw multiple touchdown passes, so it's not a matchup that's completely one to avoid. Unfortunately for Mullens, he will be without almost all of his top pass catchers due to injuries or COVID-related absences, so he's unlikely to be one of the more popular players selected on either site.

WIDE RECEIVERS AND TIGHT ENDS

The target leaders for the 49ers this season also make up the list of their absences, as George Kittle (49 targets) is out with broken foot, Brandon Aiyuk (43) and Kendrick Bourne (40) are on the reserve/COVID-19 list, Deebo Samuel (22) is out with a hamstring injury AND on the reserve/COVID-19 list and Jordan Reed (16) is on IR with a knee injury. There's a possibility Reed is activated before the game, but you have to wonder how much he'll be able to contribute given that he's been sidelined since suffering his injury in Week 3 with potentially only one full practice this week. Disregarding the running backs, who also catch passes, Trent Taylor ($400 DK, $5,000 FD) is the most-targeted wide receiver or tight end for Mullens, and he comes in with nine catches on 16 targets for 77 yards this season. Taylor isn't much of a big-play threat, as his 94 air yards and 5.5 aDOT indicate, though it's not really an offense that relies on much down field anyway, as Aiyuk leads the team with a fairly pedestrian 10.6 aDOT. Taylor comes in off his best game of the season, with three catches on five targets for 32 yards last week against Seattle, and he may have some chemistry with Mullens because they both work as backups in practice.

To really belabor the point, Richie James ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) is likely to start opposite Taylor, and he hasn't been targeted this season. In fact, he's only been active three times, playing a total of 33 offensive snaps. Given the salary and expected role, we can probably assume James will be popular, if only because he allows fantasy players to stack Green Bay's more expensive players. Oh, and James is questionable to play because of an ankle injury. In terms of other available pass catchers for San Francisco, Ross Dwelley ($4,800 DK, $6,000 FD) should start in Kittle's place, though he probably won't get as many targets if Reed is healthy enough to play. Otherwise, take your luck at any of the other guys who might be activated from the practice squad like Charlie Woerner ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) Kevin White ($200 DK, not on FanDuel), River Cracraft ($200 DK, not on FanDuel) or Daniel Helm ($200 DK, not on FanDuel).

The Packers side is significantly better, highlighted by Davante Adams ($12,400 DK, $15,500 FD), the most expensive player on both sites. Adams has dealt with his own injury this season, limiting him to five games, but he's second in the NFL with 100.4 receiving yards per game, and no player has more than his seven receiving touchdowns. He leads the team in every important receiving category, and despite his high price, he figures to be incredibly popular, including on DraftKings as captain despite the salary multiplier that pushes his cost to $18,600, which is a lot easier to afford when you can get the 49ers' top wide receiver for $400.

Moving in the opposite direction of the 49ers, Green Bay might actually be adding to their receiver group, as Allen Lazard ($7,400 DK, $9,500 FD) could be activated from injured reserve after recovering from core muscle surgery. It's not a guarantee he'll play, but he did make the trip to Santa Clara. Lazard's activation would theoretically take some targets away from the other receivers, though it likely hurts Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3,400 DK, $8,000 FD) more than Adams. Lazard is significantly more expensive than MVS, and theoretically he could be limited, but both will be distant second and third behind Adams in terms of targets and popularity.

Tight end Robert Tonyan ($6,400 DK, $10,500 FD) could also be a option for some because he has more targets this season than any Packers wide receiver other than Adams, catching 23 of 27 targets for 309 yards and five touchdowns, though we can't ignore that three TDs came in Week 4 against Atlanta, and he hasn't scored since. And while there's some recent success, catching five of seven targets for 79 yards last week against Minnesota, the 49ers have been fairly stout against tight ends this season, allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. Limited excitement about Tonyan likely won't get many people to look at Jace Sternberger ($1,800 DK, $6,000 FD), who caught three of four targets for 46 yards last week and scored a three-yard touchdown on his only target the week before. Consideration for Sternberger is likely best for those who make a ton of lineups, and even then it's just a basic touchdown play.

Similarly to the 49ers, there are players further down the depth chart who will theoretically play a few snaps, though with the Packers having almost all of their regular starters available, it's tough for those who make few lineups to really consider guys like Equanimeous St. Brown ($1,200 DK, $5,000 FD), Darrius Shepherd ($600 DK, $5,500 FD) and Malik Taylor ($800 DK, $5,500 FD).

RUNNING BACKS

The ridiculousness of the lack of pass catchers for the 49ers is mirrored by the Packers' backfield situation if Aaron Jones ($9,800 DK, $14,500 FD) is unable to play because of the calf injury that has held him out of the last two games. Jones is considered a game-time decision and would certainly be a popular play if he's available, but the Packers could be in trouble if he's not, as backups AJ Dillon and Jamaal Williams are out because the former tested positive for COVID-19 and the latter was a close contact. If Jones can't go, Tyler Ervin ($200 DK, $6,500 FD) is expected to start, with Dexter Williams ($200 DK, $5,000) the backup if he gets called up from the practice squad. Given those prices, it's easy to see why Adams and Rodgers will be extremely popular as flex plays and captain/MVPs.

Ervin makes sense as the starting running back for a team that's a 7.5-point favorite, but you have to wonder how much the Packers will want to use him given that he comes in with four carries for 43 yards this season, including three for 38 in Week 1 when Jones was out. Then again, who else are they going to play? For those bold enough to use Ervin as a captain on DraftKings for $300, you can literally play anyone you want, as salary simply doesn't matter. Jones' availability will have people looking his way, but you obviously have to consider that he'll be just coming back from injury, one that didn't even make him available until game-day, and he's facing a 49ers defense that's allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs this season.

San Francisco's backfield is hardly full strength, as starter Raheem Mostert is out with an ankle injury, while Tevin Coleman (knee) and Jeff Wilson (ankle) are also sidelined. With those absences, JaMycal Hasty ($7,200 DK, $11,000 FD) and Jerick McKinnon ($8,000 DK, $7,000 FD) will handle the backfield duties. Here's what Jerry Donabedian had to say about the situation after last week's game, when McKinnon had a 50 percent snap share to Hasty's 41 percent but Hasty out-carried him 12-3 (McKinnon had four targets on 21 routes versus one on 12 for Hasty):

• Coleman returned from IR but then re-injured his knee in the first quarter. He got the start and played six of the team's first nine snaps.
• Hasty was the lead runner after the first quarter, taking nine carries to McKinnon's two. McKinnon had a 4-1 edge in targets and a 56-44 advantage in snap share.
• McKinnon played 12 of 14 snaps on third down, including nine of nine on 3rd-and-medium/long.
• McKinnon played 20 of 28 snaps in the fourth quarter with the 49ers down big. Hasty actually played more snaps (59 percent) between the second and third quarters.

Hasty seems like the guy to target for the carries, but his lack of passing-down work is a bit tough to make him a captain/MVP, especially so on DraftKings because of the full point per reception. That being said, no team in the NFL has allowed more fantasy points per game to running backs this season, with some of that coming from the fact that no team has allowed more rushing touchdowns (10) or receiving touchdowns (four) to running backs. The Packers have allowed at least one running back touchdown in every game this season, including five with multiple scores (that's all running backs from their opponents, not just a single player in each of those games). Given their total lack of reliable receiver options, it may just be a slate to roster two 49ers running backs if you aren't going with full 5-1 Packers stacks.

KICKERS

While this game isn't expected to be high-scoring, it also doesn't really have a low total, so fantasy players aren't likely to gravitate to the kickers, especially given the available values among the 49ers pass catchers. Robbie Gould ($3,600 DK, $9,000 FD) should at least be considered if you think the Niners can move the ball enough to get into field-goal range but not punch it into the end zone, though with only three games this season with multiple field-goal attempts, it's not like you can expect a ton. On the other hand, the Packers' offense has almost been too effective recently, as Mason Crosby ($4,000 DK, $9,000 FD) scored at least 11.0 fantasy points in each of the first three games, only to fall under 8.0 in each of the last four, with only two field-goal attempts in that span. If anything, neither figures to be popular, and if the offenses stall, they could theoretically make for decent GPP plays if a game between two teams dealing with multiple COVID-19 absences ends up being low scoring.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The Packers defense ($5,200 DK) hasn't exactly been lighting up the fantasy scoreboard recently, scoring 0.0, 6.0 and minus-1.0 in each of their last three games, respectively, forcing only one turnover in that span while registering eight sacks. However, facing a team with a backup quarterback, no starting wide receivers, no starting tight end and their top two running backs out, it's certainly not crazy to think they can make something happen Thursday night.

Considering a defense from a team that's a 7.5-point underdog isn't likely to be a popular one, but the 49ers  ($3,800 DK) showed two weeks ago that they can produce, with four interceptions and two sacks in a win over the Patriots. However, Aaron Rodgers is not Cam Newton, so expecting those kinds of turnovers seems a bit silly. Using the 49ers defense is likely a move for those who like seeing themselves near the top of the standings early in the slate, but otherwise they should only be left for the most contrarian of us.