This article is part of our DFS NFL series.
Week 16's NFL DFS main slate comes a day early with 10 games Saturday. Make sure to keep an eye on weather conditions as many games will be dealing with frigid temperatures. Here are my favorite contrarian GPP plays this week. Happy Holidays!
Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City vs. SEA ($8,400 DK, $9,200 FD)
Considering there are some quality options at QB under $6k, Mahomes shouldn't be too popular as he comes in with his highest salary of the season. He's coming off his fourth 35+ point fantasy game and may even get another receiving threat with the likely return of Mecole Hardman. The emergence of Jerick McKinnon as a pass-catching RB gives Mahomes an elite ceiling.
Tyler Huntley, Baltimore vs. ATL ($5,300, $6,700 FD)
There were some initial questions as to who would start this week, but Lamar Jackson needs another week to get healthy and Huntley's shoulder issue is minor. While he's struggled to get going in relief of Jackson, a matchup against the Falcons' 29th ranked DVOA pass defense should help him find his form. His low salary makes him an intriguing GPP play.
Running Backs
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati at NE ($6,900 DK, $7,500 FD)
We know that Bill Belichick loves to take the opposition's best player out of the game, which should open things for the running game as Ja'Marr Chase gets most of the attention. Although Mixon has been mostly mediocre this season, he's also posted a 50-point game and that alone makes him difficult to overlook in GPPs at under $7k.
D'Andre Swift, Detroit at CAR ($5,500 DK, $6,800 FD)
Swift has been more involved recently, averaging 8.3 carries and 6.8 targets over the last four games while Jamaal Williams hasn't reached double-digit fantasy points in three straight games. With the Lions in the playoff hunt and a favorite against the Panthers, they'd be wise to get one of their most dynamic offensive options involved often.
Chuba Hubbard, Carolina vs. DET ($4,900 DK, $6,000 FD)
Since Carolina's bye week, D'Onta Foreman has seen 32 touches compared to 24 for Hubbard but Hubbard has been much more efficient with 166 total yards and a TD to Foreman's 84 yards and zero TDs. I'm happy to go with Hubbard at the cheaper salary of the two against a Lions team that has been involved in several high-scoring contests.
Wide Receivers
Adam Thielen, Minnesota vs. NYG ($5,300 DK, $6,600 FD)
As dominant as Justin Jefferson has been, Thielen may be the best value of the Vikings' receivers this week following big games last week from Jefferson and K.J. Osborn. Thielen has started to heat up as of late with a touchdown catch in three of the last four games and shouldn't face much resistance against the Giants' 29th ranked DVOA defense.
Drake London, Atlanta at BAL ($4,800 DK, $6,400 FD)
London showed a nice rapport with Desmond Ridder in his NFL debut, catching 7-of-11 targets on Ridder's 26 pass attempts. Surprisingly, he doesn't get a bump in salary and is one of the rare examples of a receiver under $5k with a realistic chance at double-digit targets without some type of injury boosting his stock.
Marquise Goodwin, Seattle at KC ($4,300 DK, $5,800 FD)
With Tyler Lockett out, Goodwin steps into the WR2 role alongside DK Metcalf. Even with Lockett in the lineup, he's shown his upside with two 20+ point fantasy games since Week 7. It's not easy to find many contrarian plays in the highest over/under game of the week, but I expect Goodwin to come in at less than 10 percent rostered. Keep an eye on his injury status as he's questionable despite practicing this week.
Tight Ends
Dalton Schultz, Dallas vs. PHI ($4,200 DK, $6,100 FD)
Schultz has posted 13+ fantasy points in four of his last seven games and seems to be more involved following a bad game. In a season that's been a disappointment for the overwhelming majority of TEs, Schultz has been fairly dependable over the second half of the season.
Daniel Bellinger, NY Giants at MIN ($3,300 DK, $4,700 FD)
With the handful of decent tight end options all being at least $4k this week, there's value to be had if you can find which low-cost TE will shine. I'll turn to Bellinger in one of the handful of games that we won't have to worry about bad weather. The rookie has seen 12 targets over the last three games since his return and has a pair of double-digit fantasy point games this season.
