This article is part of our DFS NFL series.
It's Week 7 in the NFL and this week I'll continue to to look at players we expect to be rostered by less than 10 percent of the competition that will help gain leverage on the competition in large GPP contests. Last week, three of the players highlighted posted 20+ point games. 11 games are on tap for the featured main slates on DraftKings and FanDuel with four teams on bye.
Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati vs. ATL ($6,900 DK, $8,300 FD)
The QB position in DFS this week will have a lot of people spending up for Lamar Jackson or going for value in Geno Smith. That leaves Burrow slightly overlooked against the Falcons who rank 29th in team DVOA defense this season and have allowed 20+ fantasy points to opposing QBs to everyone except for Jacoby Brissett thus far. Burrow should also benefit from WR Tee Higgins being back to 100 percent.
Derek Carr, Las Vegas vs. HOU ($5,900 DK, $7,600 FD)
Carr is my preferred option when it comes to low-salary QB options this week with the Raiders having an implied total of 26.5 points in a good matchup this week against the 1-3-1 Texans. He's thrown for multiple touchdowns in all but one game thus far and the Raiders should be well prepared coming off a bye week.
Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis at TEN ($8,100 DK, $8,000 FD)
The RB position this week has plenty of good options in the mid-range, so I'll look to spend up to be contrarian in GPPs. Taylor is back to full strength after missing the last two weeks and this is a generous price point for someone that has had a 30-point fantasy game this season and was $9,900 on DK not that long ago.
Aaron Jones, Green Bay at WAS ($7,600 DK, $6,800 FD)
Jones has been disappointing in fantasy circles this season, but he can pop off at anytime like he did against the Bears in Week 2 with 170 yards and two touchdowns. The Packers' struggles lately has been in large part due to not getting Jones and AJ Dillon enough touches, which I think has to get corrected as a favorite against a backup QB.
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas vs. DET ($6,000 DK, $6,900 FD)
It doesn't get much better than playing the Lions, who are allowing 34 points per game – over five points more than anyone else. Usually that means it's difficult to find contrarian plays but that's not the case in Dak Prescott's return. I expect them to lean on Zeke as a result, especially in a positive game script for the RBs as a seven-point home favorite.
Wide Receivers
Mike Williams, LA Chargers vs. SEA ($7,200 DK, $7,800 FD)
WR is thinner at the top this week with Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson and Stefon Diggs all on bye. I'll look down a tier to Williams who has been hot and cold this season, posting less than 20 yards in three games and at least 110 yards in the other three. Considering this is the highest over/under on the slate, this should be a good spot for a ceiling performance.
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay at CAR ($6,900 DK, $7,600 FD)
Evans has been held in check the last couple of weeks with just four catches in two straight games but was on the field for 96 percent of snaps last week. The upside is there with a 8-103-2 stat line a few weeks back, and the Panthers are in disarray right now.
Amari Cooper, Cleveland at BAL ($6,100 DK, $7,200 FD)
Cooper has been the clear go-to option for the Browns with double-digit targets in 4-of-6 games, including 12 targets in consecutive weeks. That's unusual for this salary range, especially at less than 10 percent expected to roster him. Cleveland will likely have to throw often to keep up with the Ravens.
Tight Ends
George Kittle, San Francisco vs. KC ($5,300 DK, $6,600 FD)
Tight end is a common position to spend up or down and that often leaves this range overlooked. Kittle is coming off his best game of the season with eight catches and gets a nice matchup against a Chiefs defense that ranks a lowly 28th in DVOA pass defense.
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta at CIN ($4,300 DK, $5,900 FD)
Pitts is second on the Falcons in targets with five per game, and his mediocre season has been in large part due to Marcus Mariota averaging less than 23 attempts per game. That is likely to increase as a 6.5-point underdog at Cincinnati, and he's one of the few TEs capable of a 20+ point fantasy game.
