This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Football series.
Before jumping headfirst into the whirlwind of fun that is Yahoo Daily Fantasy Football, be sure to differentiate between the variety of games offered. Since Head-to-Heads, 50/50s and Double Ups pay nearly half of entrants, your best bet for cashing is to target players with higher floors. Think heavily targeted No. 1 WRs, RBs who get the bulk of a team's carries and upper echelon QBs in matchups with a tight Vegas point spread and a high total.
Tournaments / Guaranteed Prize Pools (GPPs) require a bit more of your inner contrarian. Target offensive players with higher ceilings in advantageous matchups. Huge point totals can come from the most unpredictable of places, and the most obvious plays are not always the right ones. Though previous week's performances should be noted, each new week of action should be considered its own season. Don't chase last week's stats.
Overview
We are entering that part of the season where we need to pay extra attention to weather, and how it affects the players we're considering each week in DFS. Last week, there were two games that dropped a full five points below their opening projected total. Both of those outcomes fell well under those new totals – the Steelers and Browns ended with 33 total points and the Bears versus the Giants, 38. We saw a new record for missed extra points Sunday, but thankfully we don't have to concern ourselves with kickers here. When deciding between two players (QB or WR) at similar price points, keep an eye on weather reports as a tiebreaker. Of course, we're giving extra preference to parts of a passing game playing in domes or warmer-weather stadiums.
The Week 12 waters appear a bit clearer than the murky Week 11 Sea upon first glance. Many of this week's best matchups take place on Thanksgiving Day, and hence are not a part of this slate. There are several games that don't look too swell on paper, particularly the Jaguars/Bills, Bengals/Ravens and the Giants/Steelers. Not to mention a Sunday night division battle (Chiefs v. Broncos) that is slated to be a tight, defensive-minded game with a total that currently falls under 40 combined points. Much of our excitement in Week 12 lies with the Monday Night matchup, where the Eagles offense hopes to join in on the fun and pick apart a Packers' secondary that has allowed eight touchdown passes over their last two games. Week 12 very much feels like a week where we're more comfortable with our running back and DST options. We'll have to make tough choices at wideout, though there are a few pricing inefficiencies to take advantage of. Enjoy the exciting Turkey Day slate and get a couple days to recharge, because it's going to be an ugly, low-scoring Sunday where many of our favorite picks will get vultured for touchdowns by fullbacks we've never heard of.
TOURNAMENTS (GPP – GUARANTEED PRIZE POOL)
Carson Palmer (ARI, $29)
Palmer has not been good this season. The majority of fantasy analysts hit the nail on the head this summer, properly moving Palmer and Blake Bortles down their season-long preseason ADP, expecting regressions that appear to have come to fruition. Palmer is 36 years old and in his 14th season – deterioration of skills is a part of football life and virtually inevitable. He has a 13:10 TD:INT thus far, and has seen a huge dip in his yards per attempt. Palmer heads into Week 12 with a 7.16 YPC, which is below his career average (7.34) and sits more than 1.5 YPA lower than last season's 8.7 YPA. The Cardinals have been riding running back David Johnson heavily this season, which has certainly helped their brittle QB make it through to Week 12 unscathed. Unlike Bortles or, say, Brock Osweiler, Palmer is not a bad quarterback, though. There's a big difference between 'bad' and 'old, but with skills' when we're assessing QBs for our large-field tournaments. Week 12 presents an intriguing matchup for us given the close spread (four points), high implied total (50.5) and a visit to the Georgia Dome. Palmer is priced affordably and deserves our consideration for GPPs this week.
Spencer Ware (KC, $25)
Back to the well, and hopefully Ware can reward our patience by crossing the goal line this week. Ware saw four red zone looks last week and was stuffed twice at the goal line near the end of the game. He picked up a respectable 4.1 yards per carry on 17 attempts, adding in two receptions for a total of 85 yards from scrimmage. That touchdown would have paid off our investment, but instead we sadly fell short. The Sunday night prime time matchup against the Broncos presents the lowest implied total (39.5) of Week 12, and will most likely be a slow-paced game featuring a lot of running. Change-of-pace back Charcandrick West was on the field for just 10 snaps last week, compared to 41 for Ware. The Broncos also surprisingly rank among the league's worst against the run this season. They are allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game (123.7) and rank among the bottom 10 in YPC against (4.4). Ware is a GPP play because most will look to pair Jay Ajayi ($39), David Johnson ($40) or Melvin Gordon ($35) along with an affordable RB2, which should keep the mid-range running backs' ownership at a minimum. I'm going to have some exposure to Ware in the NFL $110k Baller and advice you to jump on board again.
Dorial Green-Beckham (PHI, $10)
Yep, I am a 100 percent certified DGB apologist and I'm not ashamed. A Week 12 tilt against the sham known as the Packers' pass defense presents an opportunity for DGB to have his breakout game with the Eagles. The problem is that it's difficult to lock such a risky play into one of four slots with so many other great options. The palatable part is that he is minimum salary, and he can help fit some of the RB studs in if Carson Wentz can get him another eight targets this week. DGB had his best outing of the season against the Seahawks in Week 11, catching five balls for 54 yards and a touchdown – 13.9 points in all. It's also worth noting that Green-Beckham received two of Wentz's three red zone targets last week. The Eagles may have to rely on their rookie QB's arm more this week with both of their primary backs dinged up and questionable for Monday night. Jordan Matthews and Zach Ertz should absorb most of the targets, but DGB is their best and biggest (6-foot-5, 237 lbs) red zone target and a better option than fellow boundary receiver Nelson Agholor, who is one of the league's worst route-runners and least efficient wideouts.
Other Against-the-Grainers
QB: Eli Manning (NYG, $35)
RB: Todd Gurley (STL, $23), Thomas Rawls (SEA, $19)
WR: Kelvin Benjamin (CAR, $21), Will Fuller (HOU, $17), Julio Jones (ATL, $34) – if he has low ownership because of Patrick Peterson shadow, don't be scared
TE: Zach Ertz (PHI, $15), Lance Kendricks (LA, $14)
DST: Buffalo Bills (19)
CASH GAMES (H2H, 50/50s and DOUBLE UPS)
Quarterback
Carson Wentz (PHI, $25)
There are two main parts to the cash game equation: price and matchup. Tom Brady and Drew Brees (at home) are weekly cash game plays, but in Week 12 we have an opportunity to pick on the Packers' secondary with a QB who will cost you only two-thirds the price of those top studs. Wentz impressed over the first four games of his career, throwing seven touchdown passes and only one interception. He has not been as stellar over the last six weeks, posting a 4:6 TD:INT, and last week was the first time he threw for more than one touchdown pass since Week 4. It's hard to imagine the Packers fixing their defense over the course of a week. They have been thoroughly abused through the air and have missed tackles at an alarming rate. Wentz as your QB helps you build a decent squad this week using Ajayi or DJ as your building block.
Running Backs
Jay Ajayi (MIA, $39)
The entire fantasy community is expecting a big game out of Ajayi this week. The formula is simple: play the running back facing the 49ers. The Niners are allowing nearly 180 yards on the ground this season. They are allowing 5.2 yards per carry, which is over half a yard per carry more than the next-worst team in football. The Dolphins have committed to their running game, installing Ajayi as the featured piece of their offense since veteran Arian Foster left the picture. Ajayi is averaging a modest 78 rushing yards on 17.5 carries over his last two games, but in his three prior ones, he exploded for 529 yards and five touchdowns. He receives a substantial price bump due to the matchup with the Niners, but will be a tough one to fade in cash games this week because of it. It's possible to fit both Ajayi and Johnson ($40) this week, but it puts you at a big disadvantage elsewhere. That said, I can't fault you for opting for DJ as your RB1, as he has a higher floor than any RB not named Le'Veon Bell or Ezekiel Elliott each and every week.
Rashad Jennings (NYG, $20)
The wily yet oft-injured veteran came alive last week, collecting 129 yards from scrimmage against the Bears. Jennings operated as the clear No. 1 back, playing 70 percent of the snaps and crossing the goal line for the first time in a month. He's now had back-to-back games of 80-plus yards and lines up for a juicy matchup against a Browns run defense that was shredded by Bell for 144 yards on 18 carries last week. Oh, and yes, we can agree that Jennings is no Lev Bell, but you get the point. The Browns rank 31st in YPC against (4.6), 31st in rushing yards allowed per game (143.9), and are tied for the second-most rushing touchdowns allowed with 13. Jennings is also active as a receiver out of the backfield, and is a strong play this Sunday at his bargain price.
Wide Receivers
Larry Fitzgerald (ARI, $33)
Despite dealing with knee and ankle problems, Fitzgerald has made the most of his 25 targets over the last two weeks, catching 18 of them for 195 yards. He is the poster boy for cash game floor, as he's rarely priced among the elite receivers, yet ranks second behind only Antonio Brown in receptions this season with 74, and sits third in targets per game with 10.6. Fitzgerald has just five touchdown receptions on the season, but has seen at least one red zone target in all but two games including five in his last two games. Vegas expects a shootout here, placing the Cardinals-Falcons matchup as the only one Sunday with an implied total over 50 points. Fitzgerald may have to deal with shutdown corner Desmond Trufant, as he will likely move into the slot to battle with Fitz often. It's a possibility that the Falcons game plan that way, though he will also still likely match up often with burnable slot corner Brian Poole. Fitzgerald is the fifth priciest receiver on the slate, but is usually worth his weight in cash game gold.
Amari Cooper (OAK, $28)
He's just 22 years old and in his second season, but Cooper is quickly separating himself from the pack and joining the elite class of receivers. Quarterback Derek Carr is just 25 himself, so the future is looking bright on that side of the bay. The one knock against Cooper thus far is his low touchdown total – just three on the season, and only six in his rookie season, as veteran Michael Crabtree has been Carr's preferred red zone target. Cooper is incredibly dynamic though, and one of the few solid bets to go off for 150 or more receiving yards on any given slate. He ranks third behind only Julio Jones and T.Y. Hilton in catches of 20-plus yards with 16 of them, and he has surpassed 120 receiving yards on four occasions, most recently a 12-173-1 explosion in Week 8 against the Bucs. This week's opponents, the Panthers, are the 27th-ranked defense by DVOA against No. 1 receivers, allowing nearly 85 adjusted yards per game against them. Cooper is Yahoo's ninth-priciest receiver, but could end the week as the best of them all.
DeAndre Hopkins (HOU, $18)
Seeing Hopkins priced below $20 requires a double take this week. A first rounder in August season-long fantasy drafts, Hopkins is easily considered a bust so far based on his preseason draft slot, though that has more to do with the lack of effectiveness of his quarterback, Brock Osweiler, and less to do with his own skills. Hopkins last found the end zone in Week 6 and has just one game of over 100 yards receiving, hence the price drop. The Chargers have stepped up their game defensively over the last few weeks, but lost shutdown CB Jason Verrett earlier this season and may be without Brandon Flowers due to a Week 10 concussion. Hopkins will have to battle with Pro Bowl candidate and top-10 graded cornerback Casey Hayward, though we shouldn't expect a full shadow this Sunday. Hopkins is more of a GPP play, really, but falls into cash game territory due to his incredibly affordable tag.
Tight Ends
Tyler Eifert (CIN, $18)
Every week we're in a tough spot with tight ends, since Yahoo does a terrific job with their pricing. We'd love to afford a Gronk, Greg Olsen or Delanie Walker every week, but it's easier said than done without sacrificing somewhere. There is weekly volatility among tight ends as there is with every other position, but one worthwhile strategy once again this week is to play two tight ends (one in the flex). With star wideout A.J. Green inactive, we should expect Andy Dalton to key in and target Eifert often this weekend. There are some concerns though. First is the tough matchup against a stout Ravens' defense. Second is the fact that Eifert may continue to see plenty of double coverage. Third, Eifert has only been back in action for a couple of weeks and is not at full speed condition-wise, often having to take a seat on the bench between plays. Brandon LaFell and rookie Tyler Boyd will also be expected to pick up the slack in the passing game even more with pass-catching back Gio Bernard officially declared out for the season. Nevertheless, the Bengals will put up a few points this week. Eifert is their de facto top red zone target and should get a few looks there this week, putting him in position to catch at least one touchdown pass. Zach Ertz is listed as a GPP play this week, and I'd strongly consider him in cash games this week as well, but for only two bucks more I'd rather take my shot with Eifert.
Defense/Special Teams
Baltimore Ravens ($19)
Unlike Week 11, it appears that we have several worthwhile DST options this week. At the top of the field for Week 12 is an incredibly solid Ravens unit that ranks atop the league in DVOA against the run and 10th against the pass. Their case gets stronger as the Bengals' offense is considerably diminished without the services of Green and Bernard. Prior to last week's disappointment against the Cowboys, the Ravens averaged 14.7 FP over three previous outings. They rank 12th in the league with 23 sacks, and third in interceptions (11). Keep in mind that a big part of last week's subpar effort had to do with Jimmy Smith and Elvis Dumervil missing the game. If both are back this Sunday, it's all systems go for this Ravens unit at home. If you're having trouble salary cap wise, the Titans DST should be a popular cash game option as they're likely to take on third-string Bears QB, Matt Barkley.
Honorable Mentions
QB: Drew Brees (NO, $38), Derek Carr (OAK, $35)
RB: David Johnson (ARI, $40), Melvin Gordon (SD, $35), Terrance West (BAL, $16)
WR: Michael Crabtree (OAK, $26), Jordan Matthews (PHI, $23), Julian Edelman (NE, $23), Tyler Boyd (CIN, $15)
TE: Greg Olsen (CAR, $24)
DEF: Tennessee Titans ($14)
