This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Football series.
Before jumping headfirst into the whirlwind of fun that is Yahoo Daily Fantasy Football, be sure to differentiate between the variety of games offered. Since Head-to-Heads, 50/50s and Double Ups pay nearly half of entrants, your best bet for cashing is to target players with higher floors. Think heavily targeted No. 1 WRs, RBs who get the bulk of a team's carries, and upper echelon QBs in matchups with a tight Vegas point spread and a high total.
Tournaments / Guaranteed Prize Pools (GPPs) require a bit more of your inner contrarian. Target offensive players with higher ceilings in advantageous matchups. Huge point totals can come from the most unpredictable of places, and the most obvious plays are not always the right ones. Though previous week's performances should be noted, each new week of action should be considered its own season. Don't chase last week's stats.
Overview
It's truly amazing how quickly the NFL season flies by. In just the blink of an eye, there are only three more weeks of the DFS regular season. In Week 15, tracking weather remains of the utmost importance. Remember that adverse weather will typically affect passing totals more than rushing, but rain can and will affect running games – as we saw that last week in Miami with the Cardinals and Dolphins. It may be a lower scoring week in general, with 11 of 16 games in Week 15 projected for 45 points or less. The four totals implied around 50 or more (NO-ARI, SF-ATL, OAK-SD and CAR-WAS on Monday night) don't particularly pop off the page. On the flip side, we've got a couple of games projected extremely low at under 40 points (MIA-NYJ and JAX-HOU). If you're playing the main slate, you won't have to worry about the division battle between the Dolphins and Jets, but at the same time will be missing out on a potential value running back in Bilal Powell ($12) if Matt Forte is out. The league's top QBs (Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees) are all on the road this week. Luck specifically has a tough road matchup as Donte Moncrief will likely be sidelined against a top-rated Vikings defensive unit. This weekend, I'm expecting a bounce-back performance for Dez Bryant and believe it's a great week to take players from two heavy favorites, the Falcons (-13.5) and Bills (-10). As always though, properly projecting game flow and figuring out the correct players to target is easier said than done.
TOURNAMENTS (GPP – GUARANTEED PRIZE POOL)
Trevor Siemian (DEN, $26)
With many of the league's best QBs on the road or in tough matchups, it's worth taking the time to identify the cheaper ones who could have good games. The salary cap is incredibly tight yet again and most of your competition is going to want to fit in at least one top running back among David Johnson, LeSean McCoy, Le'Veon Bell and Ezekiel Elliott. Siemian is quietly having a decent rookie season – not without bumps in the road, of course, but Siemian has not dipped below 16 fantasy points over his last four starts. He has been even more reliant on his two big targets, Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas, during that stretch, as the running game has been virtually non-existent since C.J. Anderson hit injured reserve. The Patriots' big weakness is their secondary. Though they are one of the best units at stopping the run, they rank 27th in DVOA against the pass. The Patriots have allowed at least two passing touchdowns in four of their last five, yet haven't faced a top-10 QB since Russell Wilson all the way back in Week 10. Their bend-not-break pass defense will likely lead to another 20-plus combined targets for Sanders and Thomas. Siemian has only thrown 16 TD passes on the season, but has only been intercepted a respectable seven times. The Broncos are three point underdogs at home, so while we should expect a defensive battle, the game may remain fairly competitive. If you're looking for other affordable alternatives, I'd trust Sam Bradford and his league-leading 71.2 percent completion rate over rookie Matt Barkley against the Packers in expected below-zero degree temperature.
Tevin Coleman (ATL, $20)
Coleman found his way onto a few of my teams last week, and we'll certainly see higher ownership levels in Week 15 as the Falcons boast a 13.5-point implied advantage over a horrendous 49ers' defense. He caught two balls and received just eight carries, but found his way into the end zone twice against the Rams in Week 14. He's the thunder to Devonta Freeman's lightning, and would certainly have a full-time running gig if he donned a different uniform. Freeman is a solid play this week as well, but he received a decent salary bump up to $36 this week. That's a tough price to pay with many of the league's studs at the position in a similarly range, while Coleman is available at a 40 percent discount. He has nine touchdowns this season, and the Niners have allowed a league-worst 19 TDs on the ground. I wouldn't even be opposed to playing Coleman in cash games this week while pairing Freeman with Coleman in GPPs.
Sammy Watkins (BUF, $22)
These next couple of weeks should remind us of what a dynamic receiver Watkins is, particularly those who took him as a second rounder in draft leagues and feel snubbed since he's missed a big chunk of the season. He is a dangerous cash game play since he can aggravate that foot injury at any moment, but the upside against the Browns is the top-scoring WR of Week 15. The Browns have been gashed every which way, allowing more passing touchdowns (30) than any team in football. Only the Jets rank worse in pass defense DVOA. Tyrod Taylor was in jeopardy of riding the pine, but it appears that he will get the start Sunday. The Bills are 10-point favorites, which alludes to more of a LeSean McCoy type of game. But we know that Taylor is not averse to chucking it deep, and a Week 15 tilt with the porous Browns' secondary provides a perfect opportunity for the Bills' passing game to dominate. Watkins caught his first touchdown pass of the season last week and is a good bet to get into the end zone again this week.
Other Against-the-Grainers
QB: Philip Rivers (SD, $32), Sam Bradford (MIN, $25)
RB: LeGarrette Blount (NE, $28), Matt Asiata (MIN, $14)
WR: Dez Bryant (DAL, $28), Amari Cooper (OAK, $24), Mike Wallace (BAL, $21)
TE: Jordan Reed (WAS, $24), Charles Clay (BUF, $12)
DST: New York Giants ($15)
CASH GAMES (H2H, 50/50s and DOUBLE UPS)
Quarterback
Kirk Cousins (WAS, $37), but also consider Derek Carr (OAK, $34)
As previously mentioned, it's not a pretty week for quarterbacks. Cousins is back home with a nice Monday night matchup against the Panthers, but that's a pretty obvious selection. The Raiders-Chargers game is slated to be one of the most competitive of the week given the three-point spread and a total around 50. It's worth noting that some Vegas books are down to 49.5 after opening at 51, which is likely the case because of the questionable statuses of Melvin Gordon and stud rookie defender Joey Bosa. Carr had his worst outing as a pro last week (41.5 percent completion rate, 2.85 YPA), but his receivers were miserable as Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree were able to snag just nine of 17 targets. Carr's dislocated pinkie finger is another week closer towards being fully healed, and a matchup with the Chargers provides a nice opportunity for him to get back on track. He is reasonably priced this week and should provide a solid floor in cash games if you're looking for a discount compared to the priciest QBs.
Running Backs
LeSean McCoy (BUF, $40)
Picking the correct high-priced running back in a sea of studs is always a tough call. Many will jump back on the Le'Veon Bell train after his monstrous outing last week. David Johnson will certainly be popular, especially in a home matchup against the Saints. It's McCoy who has the best pure running matchup on the board this week, though. The Bills are a run-heavy offense, 10-point home favorites, and face a Browns unit that allows 146.2 yards per game on the ground – second-worst only ahead of the 49ers. He leads the league with a 5.2 YPC and has already amassed double-digit touchdowns. Our only concern is that Mike Gillislee has been receiving goal line carries and sometimes gets rewarded at the goal line after McCoy does all the heavy lifting downfield. Despite the hefty price tag, McCoy is a tough play to fade this week, and deserves heavy consideration as our RB1.
Vikings RBs (Matt Asiata $14, Jerick McKinnon $12) over Kenneth Farrow (SD, $12)
Melvin Gordon will likely miss this tilt against the Raiders and Farrow should get the bulk of the carries, making him a popular play. Our main concerns are game flow if this game gets away from the Chargers, creating the possibility Philip Rivers throws a ton, and the fact that Ronnie Hillman is in the mix. Farrow isn't quick (4.59 40-yard time) but has a stocky build (5-foot-11, 216 lbs) and is not afraid to plow through defenders. He is essentially the Chargers' fourth-string back behind Gordon and two IR guys, Danny Woodhead and Branden Oliver. Farrow ran for 55 yards on 16 carries against the Panthers last week, but also caught six balls. He'll likely give up some carries to Hillman, but should be the primary ball-carrier on early downs. Vikings' backs Asiata ($14) and McKinnon ($12) could end up being safer options in his price range given their home matchup, but Asiata primarily depends on goal line scores to provide value and though McKinnon is healthier, he's crossed the goal line just once in his last eight games (just twice all year). Deciphering the cheap RB situation this week will be important to making the expensive pieces fit.
Wide Receivers
Mike Evans (TB, $38)
Evans has lost a bit of his luster, and among the masses will likely be the third most popular expensive option at WR in Week 15 behind Antonio Brown ($36) and Odell Beckham Jr. ($35). Brown is a weekly cash game option, but the Bengals have kept him in check going back to the beginning of the 2015 season. In the last three games against the Bengals, Brown has scored just one touchdown, and he hasn't topped 100 yards against them since 2014. Meanwhile, Evans has a substantial height advantage over both Cowboys' corners – five inches on Brandon Carr and six on Anthony Brown. Evans ranks third in the league in receptions (80), receiving touchdowns (10) and is first in targets with 145. The Bucs are seven point road underdogs and will require plenty of Jameis Winston magic in order to contend. Evans is a cash game option every week, and could provide an advantage over other studs in his price range given that he will be slightly overlooked based on recent results.
Tyreek Hill (KC, $25)
Hill has emerged as one of the league's most dynamic weapons over the last couple of months, playing an integral part in the offense and helping the Chiefs win eight of their last nine games. He dropped 18.9 fantasy points last week catching all six of his targets for 66 yards and scoring his fifth touchdown in the last three games. The Chiefs have veteran receiver Jeremy Maclin back in the fold and Travis Kelce finally playing at a consistently high level, but Hill's big-play ability drives his weekly expectations through the roof. This week, he takes on a Titans' secondary that ranks 25th in pass defense by DVOA and is second behind only the Falcons in receiving yards allowed as a team this season. Hill should create matchup problems for the Titans' defense, and has not received much of a price increase for Week 15. Though he's more of a GPP play, I have no problems inserting Hill into my cash lineups for this matchup.
Davante Adams (GB, $23)
Adams is not as safe a weekly cash game play as teammate Jordy Nelson, but we have to make sacrifices due to a tight salary cap. Nelson is the model of consistency, catching touchdown passes in 10 of 13 games this year. Adams' production is more erratic week to week, but he is tied for fourth among wide receivers with nine touchdowns this season and has hit double-digit fantasy points in six of his last eight games. He has also topped the 100-yard receiving mark in four of those. Our main concerns for Adams as a cash game play is the severity of Aaron Rodgers' calf injury, and the possibility of this being a letdown spot on the road against a division rival after the big win against the Seahawks last week. The Packers are playing at an incredibly high level of late though, and Adams' efficiency is a big reason why (he's averaging over two fantasy points per target). He's a strong play in GPPs and a cash game option sliding in at only $23 for Week 15.
Tight Ends
Greg Olsen (CAR, $19)
It's difficult not to just plug and play Kelce given his consistency lately (four straight games of 100-plus yards), but Kelce and Jordan Reed are the most expensive TEs on the slate this week, and one's hurt and the other has caught just one touchdown pass in his last nine games. Reed is more of a GPP play as a Monday night hammer because of his shoulder injury, and the fact that we never know if he'll finish a game. The upside is that the Panthers are friendly to opposing tight ends, allowing the second-most TDs to them while ranking in the bottom five in receptions and yards allowed to the position. Olsen provides us with a great buy-low opportunity, as his $19 tag is the lowest we've seen all season. He had his first fantasy-worthy game in six weeks against the Chargers in Week 14, catching four of seven targets for 87 yards. He has caught just three touchdown receptions this season and is scoreless in his last five, but only Reed's 8.2 targets per game rank ahead of Olsen's 8.0 per game this season. The Redskins have also allowed a league-high 7.2 receptions per game to tight ends this season. Olsen is due for one of his big outings. He's both cash game and GPP viable in Week 15.
Defense/Special Teams
Atlanta Falcons ($16) and Houston Texans ($16)
The Falcons should be the most popular DST value play of the week, but it might be close between them and the Texans. Recency bias will most certainly set in because of the 26 points the Falcons posted last week, including two defensive touchdowns. They are nearly two-touchdown favorites over the lowly Niners and could force Colin Kaepernick into some mistakes Sunday. The Texans have a juicy matchup themselves as six-point home favorites in a game that has an implied total around 40 points. Only Philip Rivers has thrown more picks this season (17) than the Texans' opponent, Blake Bortles (15). The Texans employ arguably the league's most effective cornerbacks, A.J. Bouye, yet they have just eight interceptions as a team. The Week 15 tilt is a great spot for the Texans to improve on that total.
Honorable Mentions
QB: Aaron Rodgers (GB, $37), Dak Prescott (DAL, $33)
RB: David Johnson (ARI, $42), Le'Veon Bell (PIT, $39), Spencer Ware (KC, $22)
WR: Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG, $35), Tyrell Williams (SD, $23), Dontrelle Inman (SD, $20), Taylor Gabriel (ATL, $20)
TE: Travis Kelce (KC, $24)
DST: Buffalo Bills ($19)
