Yahoo DFS Football: Week 5 Picks

Yahoo DFS Football: Week 5 Picks

This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Football series.

Before jumping headfirst into the whirlwind of fun that is Yahoo Daily Fantasy Football, be sure to differentiate from the variety of games offered. Since Head-to-Heads, 50/50s and Double Ups pay nearly half of entrants, your best bet to cashing is to target players with higher floors. Think heavily targeted No. 1 WRs, RBs who get the bulk of a team's carries and upper echelon QBs in matchups with a tight Vegas point spread and a high total.

Tournaments / Guaranteed Prize Pools (GPPs) require a bit more of your inner contrarian – target offensive players with higher ceilings in advantageous matchups. Huge point totals can come from the most unpredictable of places – the most obvious plays are not always the right ones. Though previous week's performances should be noted, each new week of action should be considered its own season. Don't chase last week's stats.

TOURNAMENTS (GPP – GUARANTEED PRIZE POOL)

Eli Manning (NYG, $34)

We've seen about enough of Bad Eli, so it's time for the good version to reappear. Manning had his most dismal outing of the season against the Vikings on Monday Night Football, completing just 25 of 45 passes for 261 yards with no touchdown passes or interception. All in all, less than 10 fantasy points. Luckily for us, Manning wasn't a DFS target last week against a tough defense. He currently sits at an even 4:4 TD:INT heading into a Week 5 matchup against the Packers, once again on the prime time stage Sunday night. The good thing is that Eli and his offense are facing a secondary that have been absolutely torched through the first three games, including 205 yards and two touchdowns served up to Marvin Jones two weeks ago. The Packers are fresh off their bye and will be ready, but they will likely be without the services of their best cornerback Sam Shields, who is still dealing with the effects of a concussion. If he's out yet again, that leaves their secondary thin and easily beatable against Manning and crew (Odell Beckham, Sterling Shepard, Victor Cruz) in what could be a nice bounce-back spot. The projected game total of 48.5 is one of the highest of Week 5 and we should expect to see a fair amount of scoring. No team has been more effective against the run (1.8 YPC against) as they have allowed just 128 total rushing yards in three contests so far. Manning will likely see upwards of 40-plus pass attempts for the second week in a row and will have a hungry OBJ ready to feast on the Packers' suspect corners.

Isaiah Crowell (CLE, $18)

Crowell would easily end up as a cash game play if not for the matchup against the Patriots as the New England region and legion of fans eagerly await the return of their savior, Tom Brady. Crowell has been electric this season, leading the NFL in yards per carry (6.4). He topped the century mark for the second time in three games last week, rushing for 120 yards against the Redskins. Throw in his touchdown and 3-for-22 receiving and his fantasy point total hit an impressive 21.7 for the week. Crowell has also found his way into the end zone in three of four games so far. Most impressively and important to his relevancy in DFS formats, he has not been a victim of game flow. He's carried the ball at least 15 times in each of the last three games, with the Browns playing from behind for most of them. Crowell has been incredibly nimble and elusive, forcing 15 missed tackles so far for an average of 4.51 yards after contact. Clearly establishing himself as the team's go-to back, he is no longer falling under the radar. Fortunately for us this week, his price tag did not receive a heavy increase leaving us with a steal of a deal at $18. We may still have DFS'ers who think his performance is unsustainable over the long run and many who will be scared off by the matchup against the Patriots, not realizing that Crowell will get the rock even if the Browns are getting smashed. In a week with so many tough RB matchups on paper, why not save a few bucks and build around one of the league's most elusive backs this week?

DeSean Jackson (WAS, $20)

Jackson put up a stinker, managing just one five-yard catch on two targets against the Browns last week. He was on the injury report and limited in practice most of last week, but was deemed ready to roll prior to Sunday. In that game, much of our fantasy attention went to affordable target-hog Jamison Crowder and long-overdue tight end Jordan Reed (who delivered with 23.8 FP), though there were a few (myself included) who thought that Jackson was a sneaky GPP play. Unfortunately, DJax is one of the most inconsistent fantasy wideouts week in and week out, as boom or bust as they come in his role as the team's deep threat. He has looked good this season, posting a 5-96-1 line (18.1 FP) against the Giants in Week 3 and 6-102 on 10 targets in the season opener. Week 5 sets up nicely for DJax as he's had more time to allow his ankle and knee to heal and will likely face off with Ravens' cornerback Shareece Wright. According to Scott Barrett of Pro Football Focus, Wright has allowed 205 yards and five touchdowns on 16 receptions to opposing receivers over the last three weeks. He was torched by the Raiders' Michael Crabtree who finished the game with three scores. It's a good price and good spot to jump back on the DJax train.

Other Against-the-Grainer

QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick (NYJ, $26), Trevor Siemian (DEN, $31) – if healthy
RB: C.J. Anderson (DEN, $35), Jerick McKinnon (MIN, $22)
WR: Emmanuel Sanders (DEN, $26), DeVante Parker (MIA, $17), Sammie Coates (PIT, $13), Dorial Green-Beckham (PHI, $10)
TE: Charles Clay (BUF, $10), Richard Rodgers (GB, $10)
DEF: Cincinnati Bengals ($13)

CASH GAMES (H2H, 50/50s and DOUBLE UPS)

Quarterback

Brian Hoyer (CHI, $27)

I recommended Hoyer last week among the against-the-grainers, and now he's made a quick transition to cash game viable status for Week 5. He's now posted two consecutive outings of 300-plus yards and two touchdowns as he heads to Indianapolis for a decent matchup against the Colts, who have only given up five passing touchdowns through three games but are allowing 277 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. Colts' cornerbacks Vontae Davis and Patrick Robinson returned to action last week but the team parted ways with veteran Antonio Cromartie, cutting him Tuesday. With rookie back Jordan Howard balancing out the offensive attack last week, Hoyer was efficient and crisp, completing 28 of 36 passes and keying in on 30-year-old receiver Eddie Royal who put up an impressive 7-111-1 line. With Kevin White hitting injured reserve, much of our trust in Hoyer for cash games this week relies upon the assumption that he'll get Alshon Jeffery more involved. Jeffery saw just five targets last week, posting a paltry 46 yards on three receptions. Tom Brady will be the top dog cash game play this week, and I can't argue against it. But if you think the Patriots start walloping the Browns early and will lean on LeGarrette Blount for most of the second half, a heavily discounted Hoyer with a solid floor can serve you well.

Running Backs

DeMarco Murray (TEN, $32)

Murray has been incredible over the first four weeks, serving as the definition of 'cash game play' at the position. Murray has five touchdowns on the young season and has scored at least 18 fantasy points in every one of those games. Four of those touchdowns have come against stout defenses (Vikings, Texans) though his two against Minnesota were receiving touchdowns. Most importantly to our interest in RB volume in relation to cash game plays, Murray was on the field for 63 of 66 snaps last week. A Week 5 showdown with the Dolphins puts him in another good spot. Though they've held opposing runners to a 3.7 yards per carry and just two touchdowns, the Dolphins are allowing nearly 130 rushing yards per game – the fourth-worst mark in the league behind only the 49ers (140.5), Raiders (134.5) and Redskins (133). Murray also happens to be averaging 39 receiving yards on nearly five catches per game. His floor is one of the highest among running backs this week despite checking in as the fifth-most expensive player at his position. Lock him in and make the tougher decisions elsewhere.

Terrance West (BAL, $17)

The Ravens actually displayed some semblance of a running attack last week thanks to West, who ran for 117 yards and a touchdown against the Raiders last week. The Ravens cut veteran running back Justin Forsett this week and will feature West again as the team awaits the debut of fourth round running back Kenneth Dixon. Of course, there are no guarantees that Dixon will be the Ravens go-to guy given that he's yet to have even play an NFL snap. West is small in stature (5-foot-9) but is a power runner with good vision who was a track star growing up. Expect plenty of carries for West in a juicy matchup against a Redskins defense that has allowed a league-worst eight rushing touchdowns (tied with the Saints). His price point is right in the range of Crowell, though for this week he appears to be the safer cash play of the two. Don't be surprised to see another trip to the end zone for West this weekend.

Wide Receivers

Odell Beckham Jr (NYG, $37)

Beckham has been in the news as usual, but not for the right reasons. We experienced his sideline meltdown where he lost a fight with a kicking net, and now Beckham was quoted as saying he's "not having fun anymore" on the football field. The crybaby antics are frankly getting old, and it's a frightening sight for season-long players who drafted him with a top-three pick. A Week 5 prime time Sunday night matchup with the Packers appears to be a good spot to get him off the schneid and into the end zone for the first time this season. Here's hoping your fellow DFS'ers take the "he's overrated" shouts to heart and overlook him this week because of his hefty 37 dollar tag. So, schedule that feeding time for 7:30 pm central Sunday because you better believe that Manning is going to be doing everything he can to get OBJ the ball. Last week's 23-yard effort (if you can even call it that) was the lowest receiving yard total of his career. Through the first four games, Beckham has 22 receptions for 303 yards and no touchdowns. Time to panic, right? Through four games last season, Beckham had a 24-307-2 line. The only noticeable difference is the touchdowns. We can draw comparisons to Julio Jones who jumped from a 16-yard game to a 300-yard monster the following week. As mentioned under Manning's section, the Packers will likely be without their best cover corner (Sam Shields) and Beckham could easily abuse their riff-raff secondary for 150-plus yards and a couple of scores. We all know Antonio Brown is a great play albeit at a $40 tag, and Jones is actually priced down to a very reasonable and tempting $32 this week. Nevertheless, Beckham is the receiver in the high-priced range that I feel most comfortable building lineups around.

Julian Edelman (NE, $28)

Death, taxes and Edelman in cash, at least when Tom Brady is under center. The Brady-Edelman combo will be a popular one this weekend with the expectation that the Pats' offense will be firing on all cylinders. Edelman has yet to find the end zone this season but has caught seven balls in each of his last two games despite receiving passes from third-string quarterback Jacoby Brissett. Edelman's 2015 campaign was cut short due to injury in mid-November, but he managed to catch seven touchdown passes in nine games while seeing at least nine targets in six of those nine. With Rob Gronkowski coming along slowly, this Week 5 tilt with the Browns is the perfect opportunity for Brady and Edelman to rekindle their magic and reward those who play them this week.

Will Fuller (HOU, $18)

Fuller is still heavily underpriced this week, and it will be difficult for most not to add his name to their cash lineups given the incredible start to his NFL career. He kicked it off with consecutive 100-plus yard efforts then put up his best performance to date in Week 4, catching seven of nine targets for 81 yards and a touchdown. Fuller also returned a punt in that game for a 67-yard touchdown. Despite his incredible speed and separation skills, many scouts have harped on his recurring case of dropsitis since college. Fuller's catch rate is just 55 percent through four weeks, but he continues to display a good rapport with quarterback Brock Osweiler. The concerns with Fuller in cash is three-fold. First is his boom-or-bust similarities with DeSean Jackson, second is the matchup with a tough Vikings secondary, and finally the fact that Osweiler may overcompensate and send plenty of targets DeAndre Hopkins' way following the worst game of Hopkins' career (one catch on six targets for four yards). I've written Fuller up here letting you know that he'll be a 'chalk' play this week, but possibly one you may want to pivot on. Kudos if you've made it this far into the paragraph and didn't just throw Fuller into your lineup. That's why I write these and not just post picks.

Tight End

Zach Ertz (PHI, $20)

Between Hunter Henry, Zach Miller, Jordan Reed and some lucky fourth quarter Greg Olsen action, last week's chalk plays at tight end all ended up hitting, though Reed and Olsen were used at much lower percentages because of high salaries. This week's conversation at tight end begins with Ertz, who is back in action after suffering a rib injury in Week 1. Ertz has been a disappointment over the last couple of years despite coming through as a fantasy playoff hero in each of the last two seasons (13-122 in Week 16 last year, 15-155 the previous season's Week 16). Ertz is just 25 years old, and it's early enough in the season for him to build and develop into a top-five tight end in the NFL with standout rookie Carson Wentz leading the offense. Ertz played on 60 of 77 snaps in Week 1, slapping together a respectable 58 yards while catching six of seven targets. This week, Ertz faces a Lions' defense that has been gracious to tight ends, allowing six touchdowns to them over four games this season. Some may hesitate to run with a player just getting back into action, but based on his ability, role in the offense and the matchup, Ertz makes for a great cash game play this week.

Defense/Special Teams

Denver Broncos ($18)

It's really difficult to ignore the Broncos defense in this format, especially at home. They are averaging 13 fantasy points per game, second only to the Vikings (16.8). The Broncos have two double-digit efforts including 22 fantasy points against the Colts in Week 2, with many of those points coming from two pick sixes. Denver faces the league's hottest quarterback in Matt Ryan, though Ryan has a history of choking in road games and there's no defense more likely to let that scenario play out than the fearsome Broncos. With salaries bunched together within a few dollars, it's best to spend the extra couple bucks for the matchup and team with the highest floor.

Honorable Mentions

QB: Tom Brady (NE, $40)
RB: Melvin Gordon (SD, $33), Jordan Howard (CHI, $21)
WR: Antonio Brown (PIT, $40), Travis Benjamin (SD, $26), Terrelle Pryor (CLE, $20)
TE: Martellus Bennett (NE, $15)
DEF: Los Angeles Rams ($16)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Vlad Sedler plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: rotogutguy, DraftKings: rotogut, Yahoo: V_Sedler.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Vlad Sedler
Vlad Sedler covers baseball and football for RotoWire. He is a veteran NFBC player and CDM Hall of Famer, winning the Football Super Challenge in 2013. A native Angeleno, Vlad loves the Dodgers and Kings and is quite possibly the world's only Packers/Raiders fan. You can follow him @RotoGut.
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